BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s0

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

53.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1396

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0133

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050353	-1.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049589	-1.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046869	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048324	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052439	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055343	-1.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044393	-0.46%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043795	-0.05%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1372	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047533	-0.69%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0547	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054347	-0.66%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1385	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065751	-0.73%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2844	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067558	-0.72%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2290	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068062	-0.68%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1864	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065555	-0.62%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3888	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067091	-0.59%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.4124	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066841	-0.43%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.3118	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061865	-0.49%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0868	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062169	-0.39%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0898	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061496	-0.60%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1186	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062486	-0.56%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1110	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064923	-0.46%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0458	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065741	-0.63%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0288	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066513	-0.58%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0045	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066792	-0.59%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0921	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070647	-0.44%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1368	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070774	-0.51%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1365	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.06884	-0.54%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0937	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066521	-0.55%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0224	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063228	-0.66%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0503	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068785	-0.20%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0108	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068047	-0.19%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0129	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065478	-1.01%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0542	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064838	-1.03%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0674	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064501	-1.04%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0463	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061847	-0.98%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0214	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060836	-0.95%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0138	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062606	-0.94%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0433	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062002	-1.03%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0530	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061251	-0.94%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0540	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063443	-0.92%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0106	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063693	-0.86%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0025	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060183	-0.67%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0381	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061564	-0.59%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0085	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067314	-0.53%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0441	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06722	-0.33%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0644	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067292	-0.17%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0614	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068702	-0.08%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0530	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068733	+0.11%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0496	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069786	+0.22%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1079	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067308	+0.06%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0900	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.0675	+0.05%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0049	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068548	+0.25%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0192	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067869	+0.04%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0250	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070614	+0.02%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0371	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071509	+0.04%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0529	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073414	+0.21%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0593	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.07227	+0.08%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0607	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068826	-0.27%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0127	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072134	-0.20%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0509	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.07318	-0.37%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0753	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074042	-0.53%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0559	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.09071	-0.24%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2354	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082977	-1.42%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1603	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.078752	-2.47%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1483	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.07696	-2.55%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.2069	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.075471	-2.52%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1509	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.07598	-2.57%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1516	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.077788	-2.48%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1548	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.073455	-2.18%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.0910	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.073705	-2.22%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0547	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.07483	-2.23%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0171	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.075022	-2.14%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0400	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.075715	-2.10%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0159	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.072585	-1.98%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.0943	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.075647	-2.03%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0740	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.076378	-1.94%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0044	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.082492	-2.08%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0801	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.07898	-1.90%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0171	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.075392	-1.72%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0226	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.075276	-1.57%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0220	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.074752	-1.47%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0238	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074263	-1.24%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0171	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.077816	-1.55%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0201	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.078302	-1.53%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0779	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079001	-1.49%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0117	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078243	-1.22%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0217	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.078454	-1.09%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0233	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086024	-1.17%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.1098	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.083663	-1.08%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0942	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083498	-1.09%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0447	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075328	-0.79%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0570	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083292	-1.14%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0189	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084407	-1.17%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0399	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084732	-1.29%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0551	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088937	-1.46%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0268	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.09067	-1.57%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0635	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.090252	-1.60%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0692	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089818	-1.66%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1869	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087826	-1.84%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0560	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085578	-2.06%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0210	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.09286	-1.97%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1267	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.100132	-2.01%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1184	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.096262	-2.08%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0608	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.101937	-1.95%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.1022	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.109348	-1.86%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1893	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.085124	-2.22%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0159	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.083023	-2.37%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0297	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.093146	-1.80%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0387	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.090666	-1.83%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1174	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.090302	-1.87%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0752	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093223	-1.83%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.0865	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.099157	-2.04%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.0917	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.126748	-2.90%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.4175	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.097731	-2.46%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.2112	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.079421	-2.25%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1096	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.078603	-2.54%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1031	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073054	-2.43%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1854	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.065823	-1.77%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3300	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.069513	-2.22%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3495	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.081118	-2.76%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4895	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.096612	-2.89%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0836	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.091888	-2.50%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0781	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.091259	-2.68%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0784	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.08606	-2.70%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0859	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.094756	-3.15%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.3007	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.09244	-3.03%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2208	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.075831	-2.52%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1497	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.074222	-2.51%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3398	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.076119	-3.13%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2495	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.07025	-1.82%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3263	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068078	-1.48%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2649	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073217	-2.27%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2909	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.071656	-2.00%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.2964	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062388	-0.75%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1800	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.0641	-0.85%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1194	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064151	-0.91%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1595	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069092	-1.48%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0027	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066013	-0.58%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0012	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062393	+0.41%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1497	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063045	+0.02%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1516	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069509	-0.91%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0646	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064806	-0.27%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0813	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070249	-1.40%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0467	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070371	-1.37%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1653	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.075668	-1.70%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.0823	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.07507	-1.68%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0141	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.061013	+0.20%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.1960	✓	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.0622	-0.02%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.2925	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062038	-0.22%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2021	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068143	-0.89%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1344	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.067999	-0.73%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.0989	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071555	-0.69%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1162	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070915	-0.26%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1051	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083091	-1.08%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2644	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076043	-0.79%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1640	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070568	-0.29%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1162	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071317	-0.24%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0399	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070298	-0.20%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0211	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075357	-0.57%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0294	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074546	-0.49%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0070	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.085975	-1.09%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0041	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.087935	-1.01%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1223	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.108701	-1.65%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.4127	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103265	-1.40%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3406	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097036	-1.25%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2895	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095339	-0.97%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.2137	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089515	-0.63%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1712	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091252	-0.76%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0551	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087799	-0.28%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0279	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090185	-0.37%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2065	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.093928	-0.84%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.0941	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.097256	-1.72%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0206	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.113984	-2.07%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1836	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.107732	-2.22%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1935	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.109919	-2.18%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.2090	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.12744	-1.89%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.4194	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.135982	-1.80%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4654	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.134434	-1.85%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3818	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132088	-1.29%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2873	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132818	-1.38%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1452	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121211	-1.20%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.1053	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.134083	-1.28%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1511	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113398	-1.17%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1677	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.127401	-2.49%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.0837	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.111325	-2.31%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.1877	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.084837	-1.58%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.3921	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.08973	-1.63%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.3811	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.117113	-4.98%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0418	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.146548	-11.80%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1167	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084039	-1.75%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.2673	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074223	-1.23%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5366	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064895	-1.23%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5442	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058865	-1.08%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3390	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054021	-1.21%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.4883	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053169	-1.27%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.7861	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.052957	-1.18%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.0976	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061232	-1.14%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.2828	✗	1.00