ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s0

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

64.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2443

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0134

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001356	-1.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001241	-1.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001246	-1.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001132	-1.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001213	-1.33%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001259	-1.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.00124	-1.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001072	-1.05%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2250	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001128	-1.44%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1132	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001116	-0.97%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1222	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001346	-1.49%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1265	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001338	-1.41%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0533	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001215	-1.19%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0704	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001339	-1.17%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0709	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001425	-1.42%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2397	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001543	-1.36%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2514	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001612	-1.21%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2770	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001619	-1.13%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1107	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001678	-1.18%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1730	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001739	-1.13%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3043	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001869	-1.02%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2556	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001853	-1.13%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2421	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001776	-1.20%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1655	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001679	-1.33%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0745	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001883	-1.13%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1823	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001961	-1.13%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1506	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001994	-1.17%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1343	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002232	-1.16%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1770	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001909	-1.29%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0011	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002137	-0.99%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1190	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001719	-1.44%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0576	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001475	-1.70%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1840	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001759	-1.55%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0514	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001803	-1.51%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0416	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001596	-0.58%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1737	✗	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001683	-0.51%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0353	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001675	-0.05%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0507	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001793	-0.51%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1792	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001897	-0.29%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3192	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001831	+0.18%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1028	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001958	+0.11%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1390	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002043	+0.12%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2374	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002184	-0.10%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2115	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002238	-0.08%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2183	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002306	-0.08%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2244	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002534	-0.49%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1973	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002476	-0.35%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2404	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002985	-1.31%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3625	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003071	-1.24%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2927	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002324	-0.09%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0842	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.00238	-0.09%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0857	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002621	-0.50%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1387	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002914	-1.11%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1926	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002544	-0.51%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0591	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002107	+0.30%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3209	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002313	-0.25%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2750	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002165	-0.06%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1087	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001942	+0.26%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2287	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002259	-0.47%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1613	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002343	-0.73%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2307	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.00261	-1.15%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0447	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002551	-1.18%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1842	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002989	-2.05%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4609	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002249	-1.75%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2735	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001902	-2.45%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3107	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001935	-2.58%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1764	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001826	-2.49%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0916	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001903	-2.65%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0024	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002028	-2.82%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1181	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001888	-2.66%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2470	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002147	-2.89%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0864	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001973	-2.87%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0417	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001709	-2.38%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1350	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001678	-2.25%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1628	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001561	-1.76%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2742	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001571	-1.85%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3290	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002057	-2.93%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0373	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001937	-3.03%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1614	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.0023	-3.45%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.1120	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001338	-1.34%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2593	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001336	-1.36%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2215	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001543	-1.88%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0229	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001632	-2.63%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0692	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001653	-2.52%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2586	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001694	-3.02%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1484	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001744	-3.26%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3070	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.002	-3.66%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3834	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001964	-3.43%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3295	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002199	-4.55%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2970	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002186	-5.56%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2381	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001461	-1.45%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1576	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001341	-1.39%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3206	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001528	-1.46%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2329	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001179	-1.61%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6006	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001204	-1.56%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5094	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001328	-1.58%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5626	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.0014	-1.72%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.4988	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001021	-1.97%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3441	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.00102	-2.52%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2571	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001134	-2.03%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2786	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.00103	-1.49%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0876	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001185	-1.62%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0122	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.0013	-1.76%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0166	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001117	-2.37%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2477	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001063	-2.74%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0330	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.00095739	-4.55%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0409	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.00111	-2.51%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0115	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001368	-1.73%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2374	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001439	-1.60%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1799	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001515	-1.40%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1483	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001827	-1.51%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.4995	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001555	+0.00%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3822	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001818	+0.15%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6426	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001839	+1.16%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5822	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002214	-0.56%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5349	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002271	-0.12%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5181	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002477	-0.57%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5361	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002517	-0.41%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3523	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002327	+0.69%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4356	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002571	-0.52%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3306	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002678	-1.28%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3162	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003059	-1.56%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2592	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003221	-1.52%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2870	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003599	-1.74%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3026	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003743	-1.86%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3379	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004359	-3.32%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5782	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003867	-2.04%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3324	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003689	-1.87%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2453	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.00389	-2.12%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1770	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003488	-1.80%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0162	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003503	-1.75%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0486	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003289	-1.40%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1492	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004161	-3.30%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0939	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002935	+0.47%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2760	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.00279	+1.41%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2721	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003398	-0.06%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1452	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002768	+2.18%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2414	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002621	+3.36%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3109	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002851	+3.31%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1586	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003504	+1.81%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2029	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003906	+0.82%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3168	✗	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003922	+0.25%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.4063	✗	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004212	-1.09%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4123	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004573	-1.44%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8440	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004995	-1.65%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0907	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005447	-2.17%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0620	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005228	-1.87%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.7116	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005888	-3.34%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7580	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004389	-1.38%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2901	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.005007	-1.63%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.3064	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004106	-1.13%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1674	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004356	-1.22%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.1918	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004045	-0.35%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3475	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003767	-0.22%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4002	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003876	-0.26%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.4938	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004252	-0.60%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0578	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005107	-1.12%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0073	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.00535	-1.19%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2477	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005539	-1.27%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.2091	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005554	-1.32%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2667	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.006017	-1.42%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4216	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005906	-1.46%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3955	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006198	-1.55%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3235	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005824	-1.48%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0598	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004933	-1.65%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1532	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005958	-1.58%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0281	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006255	-1.70%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0914	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007939	-4.74%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2763	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006466	-1.97%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0491	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004291	-1.50%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3887	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004222	-1.37%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3134	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.