ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s0

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

76.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4605

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0709

actual -0.3442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001455	-5.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001466	-5.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001215	-3.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001218	-3.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001109	-3.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001185	-3.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001229	-3.71%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001212	-3.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001044	-3.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001103	-3.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001087	-3.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001319	-3.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001308	-3.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001184	-3.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001302	-3.87%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001381	-4.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001503	-3.93%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001575	-3.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001592	-2.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001632	-3.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001688	-4.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001811	-4.07%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001782	-4.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001713	-4.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.00161	-5.39%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001829	-3.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001896	-4.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001923	-4.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002111	-6.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001869	-3.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002085	-3.40%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.2610	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001741	-0.17%	0.001549	-11.18%	0.0618	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001398	-6.82%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1441	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001686	-5.64%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3022	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.00173	-5.50%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4351	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001494	-6.90%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3057	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001577	-6.83%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3263	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001571	-6.28%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3501	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001701	-5.61%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5140	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001793	-5.78%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5697	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001732	-5.24%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5184	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001858	-5.00%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4319	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001938	-5.03%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4825	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002075	-5.08%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6065	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002122	-5.26%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5259	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002185	-5.34%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5102	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002395	-5.94%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5497	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.00234	-5.80%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4983	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002745	-9.24%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6740	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002827	-9.10%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.5908	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002193	-5.72%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3839	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002247	-5.66%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3444	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002466	-6.40%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3812	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002682	-8.98%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5260	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002411	-5.70%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4615	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002032	-3.27%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2065	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002266	-2.28%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2190	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002119	-2.17%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1529	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001933	-0.21%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0339	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002223	-2.05%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2376	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002296	-2.73%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2220	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002469	-6.49%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5337	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002509	-2.83%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5716	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002714	-11.06%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6510	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002094	-8.51%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4118	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001796	-7.91%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3934	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001821	-8.32%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3489	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001719	-8.25%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3272	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001784	-8.73%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3432	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001889	-9.46%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3201	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001768	-8.89%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2931	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001983	-10.33%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3468	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001837	-9.54%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2080	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001605	-8.36%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0370	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001573	-8.40%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0325	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001458	-8.26%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1313	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001467	-8.38%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2292	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.0019	-10.34%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0813	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001799	-9.95%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1887	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002082	-12.60%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0428	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001251	-7.75%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3419	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001249	-7.76%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3656	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.00144	-8.44%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2562	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001528	-8.80%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3281	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001546	-8.83%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2233	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001585	-9.28%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0139	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001625	-9.85%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0223	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001829	-11.89%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1408	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001795	-11.77%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1972	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001989	-13.66%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1930	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001984	-14.32%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0960	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001375	-7.22%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3801	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001287	-5.37%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4127	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001444	-6.87%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5941	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001144	-4.48%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6040	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001165	-4.71%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5148	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001277	-5.32%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4487	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001338	-6.04%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3615	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.00099203	-4.70%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6957	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000995501	-4.83%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7804	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001103	-4.76%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6005	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.000992907	-5.08%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7757	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001146	-4.92%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5768	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001257	-5.00%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3288	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001084	-5.23%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4451	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001032	-5.54%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3964	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000939973	-6.28%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4816	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001077	-5.48%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6598	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.00133	-4.46%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3965	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001398	-4.38%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5246	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001471	-4.26%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.0886	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001789	-3.56%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.2978	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001492	-4.05%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0304	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001762	-2.94%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1100	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001771	-2.57%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1750	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002149	-3.45%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2763	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002198	-3.34%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2805	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002401	-3.59%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2156	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002438	-3.53%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2791	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002243	-2.95%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0551	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002494	-3.53%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1265	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002609	-3.82%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6051	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.002962	-4.68%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8102	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.0031	-5.23%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7430	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003446	-5.93%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0710	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003567	-6.49%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0887	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004068	-9.78%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1365	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003674	-6.92%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9368	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.00352	-6.35%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1802	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003696	-6.99%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2308	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003325	-6.39%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0410	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003326	-6.74%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1132	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003122	-6.42%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9558	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.00389	-9.60%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0826	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002797	-4.23%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9124	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002658	-3.41%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8986	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003225	-5.14%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1649	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002628	-2.99%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8362	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002475	-2.42%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5726	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002694	-2.38%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6096	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003332	-3.20%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7811	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003711	-4.22%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7086	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003705	-5.30%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9222	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003845	-9.69%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0302	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004139	-10.80%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3103	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004545	-10.52%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1510	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004946	-11.18%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2128	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.00473	-11.21%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0647	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005325	-12.59%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2332	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.003955	-11.11%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8623	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004547	-10.67%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9917	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003756	-9.56%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1193	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.003981	-9.73%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0664	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003738	-7.91%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0431	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003513	-6.94%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2304	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.00362	-6.85%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2516	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003967	-7.28%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3277	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004733	-8.37%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0043	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004939	-8.79%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1078	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.0051	-9.09%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0853	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005122	-8.99%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1811	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005528	-9.42%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2085	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.00541	-9.74%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2620	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005662	-10.08%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0383	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005391	-8.80%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3277	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004684	-6.61%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2450	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005481	-9.47%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2314	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005711	-10.24%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5094	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007158	-14.11%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7640	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.005949	-9.81%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4795	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004116	-5.52%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0587	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004051	-5.38%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1761	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.