XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s9

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +7d

assessed

113

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

55.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2043

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0528

actual -0.0467

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.00428	-1.88%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.00426	-1.85%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004281	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004216	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004424	-2.16%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004442	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004476	-2.30%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004242	-2.24%	0.004362	+0.52%	0.0321	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004081	-2.03%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0610	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004028	-2.24%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.0807	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003932	-2.01%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.0882	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003955	-2.18%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1336	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003958	-2.29%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1379	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003821	-2.47%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.1816	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.00405	-2.24%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0668	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004047	-1.78%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0288	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004007	-1.72%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0261	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004361	-1.61%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0876	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.00373	-2.27%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0763	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004853	-2.70%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1853	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004874	-2.84%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2248	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004841	-3.44%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1576	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004168	-2.34%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0009	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004415	-2.79%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0650	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004345	-2.46%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0295	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.00449	-2.75%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1607	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004579	-3.16%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0877	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004895	-4.31%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0269	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004315	-2.71%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1458	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004256	-2.24%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0072	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004243	-2.15%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0580	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004258	-2.61%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0594	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004433	-2.86%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0548	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004641	-3.20%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0316	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005218	-4.25%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0017	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004304	-0.93%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0487	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003869	+0.84%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1739	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003909	+0.89%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1348	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003713	+1.87%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1767	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003149	+3.04%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3809	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.00395	+1.71%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.2030	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.004022	+1.36%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.3031	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004059	+1.23%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0623	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004907	+0.12%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2544	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004847	+0.25%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2265	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004746	+0.60%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2728	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004574	+0.99%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4101	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004793	+1.04%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2166	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005116	+0.98%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2686	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005011	-0.09%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2192	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.00498	-0.25%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0119	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004617	-1.12%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0478	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005009	-0.73%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0520	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005062	-0.83%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1065	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005158	-0.78%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0783	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005365	-0.37%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0540	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005385	-0.59%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0772	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005185	-0.87%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0420	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005232	-0.84%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1152	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005108	-1.33%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0124	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.004989	-1.92%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0276	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004797	-2.63%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0787	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005647	-2.30%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0589	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005551	-3.45%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0347	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005588	-3.98%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.0835	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005652	-4.04%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.0870	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.00575	-4.00%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1257	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005746	-4.11%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1418	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005672	-4.14%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1618	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005674	-4.31%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0041	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005801	-4.40%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0183	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006191	-4.37%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0637	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006491	-4.51%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.0978	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006465	-4.68%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0730	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006146	-4.78%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0221	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006604	-4.88%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.1066	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006727	-4.93%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1248	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006925	-5.40%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1300	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006237	-5.05%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0375	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006066	-4.97%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1140	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005773	-4.88%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1614	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005677	-4.69%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1304	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005727	-4.70%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.1943	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005677	-5.07%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2204	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005736	-4.86%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2440	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005562	-4.97%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1663	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005817	-4.96%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.0927	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005995	-5.39%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0112	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.00598	-5.29%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0060	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005942	-5.33%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0093	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005864	-5.58%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0192	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005771	-5.89%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0440	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005969	-6.11%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0195	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005865	-6.17%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0407	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005436	-6.29%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1550	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005405	-6.83%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1541	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005397	-6.93%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1518	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005607	-7.19%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.1069	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005615	-8.05%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.0923	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005898	-8.57%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0518	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005038	-7.39%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1694	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.00536	-8.57%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0644	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004973	-9.30%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.1380	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004484	-10.31%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2607	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005059	-9.61%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1680	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003718	-8.91%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.4572	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003395	-12.13%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.6158	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002316	-28.53%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.8816	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.002024	-37.56%	0.005863	+80.84%	1.0610	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.00152	-49.33%	0.005483	+82.76%	1.2720	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.001031	-57.78%	0.005	+104.73%	1.5535	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006442	-2.76%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1676	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007046	-1.98%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5833	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006803	-1.88%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6445	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007721	-2.43%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9302	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008625	-1.82%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0453	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008811	-2.02%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1286	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008977	-2.09%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3429	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009122	-2.05%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3493	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010255	-1.88%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3384	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.