XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s9

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +30d

assessed

91

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

71.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2663

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1380

actual -0.0970

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004114	-4.59%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004123	-4.36%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004134	-4.76%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004146	-5.03%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004084	-5.01%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.00427	-5.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004284	-5.72%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004317	-5.77%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004092	-5.70%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.003954	-5.09%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003886	-5.68%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003815	-4.91%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003826	-5.38%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003823	-5.63%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.00368	-6.08%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.003919	-5.39%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.003953	-4.05%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003922	-3.81%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004269	-3.69%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003637	-4.71%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.00467	-6.38%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004688	-6.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004622	-7.81%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004037	-5.42%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004248	-6.46%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004206	-5.57%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004329	-6.24%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004392	-7.12%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004647	-9.16%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004176	-5.86%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004164	-4.36%	0.004312	-0.97%	0.0272	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004162	-4.03%	0.004312	-0.57%	0.0272	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004082	-6.63%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.0690	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004235	-7.19%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0330	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004409	-8.05%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0204	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.004884	-10.38%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.0656	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004133	-4.85%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.1071	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.00373	-2.79%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.2409	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.00381	-1.66%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.1430	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003617	-0.78%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.1603	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003057	+0.06%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.3093	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003888	+0.09%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0478	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003965	-0.09%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0358	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004027	+0.44%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0165	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004827	-1.51%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.1996	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004774	-1.25%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1308	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004685	-0.70%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1161	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004546	+0.36%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.0941	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004777	+0.70%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.0580	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005112	+0.91%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.2819	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.004978	-0.76%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0292	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004947	-0.91%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0418	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004567	-2.20%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.1090	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.004968	-1.56%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.1344	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005023	-1.59%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.0856	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005123	-1.47%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.1205	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.00537	-0.28%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.1375	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005375	-0.79%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.1110	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005168	-1.19%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0102	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005228	-0.92%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.1456	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005077	-1.93%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.1223	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.004932	-3.05%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.0923	✓	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004732	-3.95%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.0691	✓	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005509	-4.70%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.2009	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005315	-7.54%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.1154	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005283	-9.21%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0159	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005336	-9.41%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.2205	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005418	-9.56%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.3628	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005407	-9.78%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.3546	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005335	-9.83%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.3998	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005329	-10.12%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.5764	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005441	-10.34%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.3574	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.005801	-10.39%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.3982	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006069	-10.72%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.4319	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006036	-11.00%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.2284	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.005732	-11.20%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.1917	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006147	-11.45%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.2885	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006254	-11.62%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.3477	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.00641	-12.44%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.3239	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.005781	-11.98%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.1367	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005622	-11.92%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.1108	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005352	-11.82%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.0658	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005269	-11.54%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.1077	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005313	-11.59%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.0391	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005252	-12.17%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.0288	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005317	-11.81%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.0198	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005153	-11.96%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.0487	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005386	-12.01%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.0089	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005523	-12.83%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.0463	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005507	-12.78%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.0251	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005465	-12.95%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.0354	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005382	-13.34%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.0477	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005287	-13.79%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.0715	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005449	-14.28%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.0591	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005343	-14.51%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.0786	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.004955	-14.59%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.1609	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.004888	-15.73%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.1856	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.004857	-16.24%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.2059	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005016	-16.98%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.1752	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.004967	-18.66%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.1692	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005182	-19.66%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.1590	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.004456	-18.09%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.2906	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.004678	-20.21%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.3283	✗	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004284	-21.86%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.4595	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.003802	-23.97%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.5676	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.004352	-22.24%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.3670	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003157	-22.65%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.7463	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.00281	-27.27%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.9087	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.001659	-48.79%	0.00732	+125.94%	1.4749	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.001304	-59.77%	0.006568	+102.62%	1.6093	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.00082547	-72.48%	0.006383	+112.76%	2.0394	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.000482102	-80.26%	0.00607	+148.53%	2.5173	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006085	-8.15%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.0419	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.006687	-6.98%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.1535	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006431	-7.24%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.1735	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007366	-6.91%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.2605	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008289	-5.64%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.4189	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008467	-5.85%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.3852	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008626	-5.93%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.3938	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.008766	-5.87%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.4023	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.009887	-5.41%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.5039	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.