UMX

UMX · · gru_s9

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

82.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0726

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0140

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.0415	-0.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038948	-1.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042535	-0.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054163	-1.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054658	-1.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055062	-1.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058206	-1.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058283	-1.29%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3388	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058518	-1.39%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4058	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058877	-0.91%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3156	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059605	-1.35%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0781	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059803	-0.67%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0693	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060097	-0.94%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0668	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060381	-0.92%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0171	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059584	-1.56%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0109	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060965	-1.39%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0197	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061487	-0.37%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0225	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.060603	-1.76%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0167	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.060795	-1.48%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0046	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060166	-2.00%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0174	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060471	-1.99%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0175	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060495	-1.60%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0168	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060164	-2.00%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0286	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060216	-1.62%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0151	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059669	-1.56%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0217	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060068	-1.11%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0161	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060458	-0.99%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0136	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060325	-0.97%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0203	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060681	-0.80%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0105	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060719	-0.74%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0157	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060626	-0.18%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0261	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.06115	-0.03%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0121	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060498	-1.52%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0179	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059596	-1.43%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0025	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060468	-1.47%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0148	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.059504	-2.69%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0239	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.060411	-2.58%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0405	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.05942	-2.37%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0445	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059487	-1.71%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0394	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.059681	-1.80%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0058	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.06156	-1.65%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0505	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.063967	-1.66%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0717	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.063966	-1.68%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0434	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064031	-1.28%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0110	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.065662	-1.25%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0470	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067284	-1.15%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0964	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069321	-0.87%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0918	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071247	-0.87%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0968	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071441	-0.87%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0623	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072869	-0.36%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0534	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073419	-1.11%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1365	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.073631	-1.01%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.1154	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074412	-0.72%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0959	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075117	-0.89%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.1054	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074602	-0.70%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0575	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.075792	-0.70%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0737	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076957	-0.00%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0632	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082067	-0.13%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0782	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083402	-0.18%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.1000	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.088718	+0.01%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1633	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.086437	-0.33%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1306	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086214	-0.57%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1528	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.083121	-0.41%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0790	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.08075	-2.43%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1429	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.081436	-4.03%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1224	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.080815	-4.87%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1607	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.080382	-5.04%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1043	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.080484	-4.71%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1381	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.