UMX

UMX · · gru_s9

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +30d

assessed

37

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2115

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0475

actual -0.2589

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046349	-0.54%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042108	-1.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054265	-1.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054528	-1.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054767	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.057764	-2.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057897	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.05813	-2.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058766	-1.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059314	-1.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.060024	-0.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060225	-0.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060319	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059295	-2.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060723	-1.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061689	-0.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.06058	-1.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061028	-1.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.059938	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060103	-2.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060206	-2.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.059462	-3.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.059467	-2.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.05885	-2.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.059394	-2.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.059635	-2.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.059339	-2.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059679	-2.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.059646	-2.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060368	-0.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.061104	-0.11%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.2450	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.058592	-4.63%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.3233	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.057837	-4.34%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0518	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.058608	-4.50%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0641	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.058104	-4.98%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0724	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.05885	-5.10%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0310	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.057985	-4.72%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0238	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.057858	-4.40%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0026	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.058053	-4.48%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0264	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.059701	-4.62%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0245	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.061832	-4.94%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0791	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.061795	-5.02%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0696	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.062125	-4.22%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0595	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.063725	-4.17%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0830	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.0655	-3.77%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0998	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.06788	-2.93%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.1506	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.069723	-2.99%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1939	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.070074	-2.77%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.2094	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072392	-1.01%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.2067	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.071732	-3.38%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.2397	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.072285	-2.82%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.2538	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.073561	-1.85%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.2425	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073938	-2.44%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2630	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.073821	-1.74%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.2617	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074744	-2.08%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2891	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076667	-0.38%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2779	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.080566	-1.95%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.3417	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.081466	-2.49%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3585	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.085937	-3.13%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.4061	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.083596	-3.60%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.4229	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.083192	-4.06%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.4242	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.080933	-3.03%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.3112	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.075576	-8.68%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3299	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.074831	-11.82%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3528	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.075253	-11.42%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3734	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.072911	-13.87%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3283	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.070443	-16.60%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.3309	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.