BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s9

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

52.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1384

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0239

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050634	-0.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049867	-0.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047124	-0.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048471	-0.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052195	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054798	-2.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044491	-0.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043636	-0.41%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1408	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047513	-0.74%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0552	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054376	-0.61%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1391	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065907	-0.50%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2868	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067539	-0.74%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2287	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067856	-0.98%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1833	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065226	-1.12%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3837	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066744	-1.11%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.4072	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066656	-0.71%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.3090	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062084	-0.14%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0903	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062375	-0.06%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0865	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061766	-0.17%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1142	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062722	-0.19%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1072	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064985	-0.37%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0448	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065798	-0.55%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0280	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.06644	-0.69%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0034	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066778	-0.61%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0919	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070146	-1.15%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1296	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070127	-1.42%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1273	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068768	-0.65%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0927	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066663	-0.34%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0246	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063692	+0.07%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0430	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.06851	-0.60%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0068	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.06781	-0.54%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0163	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065824	-0.49%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0490	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065287	-0.34%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0605	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065141	-0.06%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0365	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062497	+0.06%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0110	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061493	+0.12%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0245	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063173	-0.04%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0343	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062856	+0.34%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0393	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061999	+0.27%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0418	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.06411	+0.12%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0002	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064256	+0.02%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0063	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060898	+0.51%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0263	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062361	+0.70%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0044	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.06788	+0.31%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0524	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06773	+0.43%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0720	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067797	+0.58%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0689	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.069076	+0.47%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0584	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.06907	+0.60%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0545	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070337	+1.02%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1158	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067209	-0.09%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0885	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067422	-0.06%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0037	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068712	+0.49%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0216	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068061	+0.33%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0278	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.071009	+0.58%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0427	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071955	+0.66%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0592	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.074167	+1.24%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0695	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072946	+1.01%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0700	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069722	+1.03%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0257	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072979	+0.97%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0626	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073894	+0.60%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0850	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074719	+0.37%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0650	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090083	-0.93%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2284	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083276	-1.07%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1639	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.079252	-1.85%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1547	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.077136	-2.33%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.2092	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.075672	-2.26%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1535	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.07606	-2.47%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1526	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.077703	-2.59%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1537	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.073922	-1.56%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.0847	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074159	-1.61%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0486	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.075256	-1.68%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0114	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.075344	-1.72%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0357	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.075972	-1.77%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0125	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073092	-1.30%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.0873	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076176	-1.35%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0671	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.076809	-1.39%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0012	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.082682	-1.85%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0824	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079176	-1.66%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0195	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.075693	-1.33%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0186	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.07546	-1.33%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0196	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.074927	-1.24%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0261	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074291	-1.20%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0167	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.07794	-1.39%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0216	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.078522	-1.25%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0751	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079157	-1.29%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0097	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078274	-1.18%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0221	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.07832	-1.25%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0216	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.085886	-1.33%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.1082	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.083471	-1.31%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0919	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083252	-1.38%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0418	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074918	-1.33%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0625	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083111	-1.35%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0167	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084249	-1.36%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0380	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084598	-1.44%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0535	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088808	-1.60%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0254	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.090562	-1.69%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0623	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.090171	-1.69%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0683	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089736	-1.75%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1860	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087996	-1.65%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0580	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085954	-1.63%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0254	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.092688	-2.15%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1249	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.099236	-2.89%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1094	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.095551	-2.80%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0534	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.099905	-3.90%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0820	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.104983	-5.78%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1486	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.08462	-2.80%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0219	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.082759	-2.68%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0329	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.091465	-3.57%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0570	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.089099	-3.53%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1348	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.08889	-3.40%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0909	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.091589	-3.55%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.1042	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.096847	-4.32%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.1153	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.118577	-9.16%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3508	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.094213	-5.97%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.1745	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.079415	-2.25%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1096	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.078464	-2.71%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1049	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073524	-1.80%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1789	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.065941	-1.60%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3283	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070105	-1.39%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3410	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.081632	-2.14%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4831	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.094703	-4.81%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.1035	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.091181	-3.25%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0704	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.090273	-3.73%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0675	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.085999	-2.77%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0852	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.09299	-4.95%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2819	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.090836	-4.71%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2033	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.076452	-1.73%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1416	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.07484	-1.70%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3315	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.076607	-2.50%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2431	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.070857	-0.97%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3177	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068613	-0.70%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2571	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073903	-1.36%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2815	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072321	-1.09%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.2871	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062847	-0.02%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1727	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064527	-0.19%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1128	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064529	-0.33%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1536	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069515	-0.88%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0034	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066183	-0.33%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0038	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062164	+0.04%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1534	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062847	-0.29%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1548	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069432	-1.02%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0635	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064537	-0.68%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0855	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070092	-1.62%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0489	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.069902	-2.03%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1720	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.074711	-2.94%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.0951	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.073921	-3.18%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0295	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060343	-0.90%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2070	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061554	-1.06%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3030	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061407	-1.24%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2123	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.067355	-2.04%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1461	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.06726	-1.81%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1098	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.070606	-2.00%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1295	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.069929	-1.65%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1191	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.08073	-3.89%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2356	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.074715	-2.52%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1463	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.069811	-1.35%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1054	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.070633	-1.20%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0303	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.06978	-0.94%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0137	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.074867	-1.22%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0228	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074161	-1.00%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0018	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.085523	-1.61%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0094	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.08689	-2.18%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1104	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.105869	-4.21%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3863	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.10101	-3.55%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3185	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.094939	-3.38%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2676	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.093119	-3.27%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.1901	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.087436	-2.94%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1477	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.088859	-3.37%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0285	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.085076	-3.37%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0594	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.08701	-3.88%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2424	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.090432	-4.53%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1320	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.093508	-5.51%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0186	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.109151	-6.22%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1403	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.102902	-6.61%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1477	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.103624	-7.78%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1500	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.11848	-8.78%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.3465	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.12557	-9.32%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.3857	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.123459	-9.86%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.2966	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.122194	-8.68%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2094	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.121882	-9.50%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.0593	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.11171	-8.95%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0237	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.121991	-10.18%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.0566	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.105231	-8.29%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.2424	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.115406	-11.67%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1826	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.101058	-11.32%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2845	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.080035	-7.15%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4503	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.084595	-7.26%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.4400	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.110258	-10.54%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.1021	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.142378	-14.31%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.0878	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.078584	-8.13%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.3344	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.070553	-6.11%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5873	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.062499	-4.87%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5818	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.057439	-3.47%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3635	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.052457	-4.07%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5177	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.051087	-5.14%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8260	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.050317	-6.11%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1487	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.059611	-3.76%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.3097	✗	1.00