BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s9

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

167

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

56.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2437

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0633

actual -0.0910

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.05067	-0.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049952	-0.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047048	-0.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048337	-1.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.05168	-2.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.053967	-3.63%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044188	-0.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.04305	-1.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047003	-1.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.05377	-1.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065452	-1.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.066843	-1.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.066981	-2.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064327	-2.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.065948	-2.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066309	-1.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062223	+0.09%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062713	+0.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061938	+0.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062895	+0.09%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064957	-0.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065542	-0.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066239	-0.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066595	-0.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069674	-1.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069694	-2.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068695	-0.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.067157	+0.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.064885	+1.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069654	+1.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.069497	+1.93%	0.05086	-25.40%	0.2803	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066533	+0.59%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2974	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.066135	+0.95%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3387	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065946	+1.18%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.3090	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062757	+0.48%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.2044	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061785	+0.59%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1374	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.06319	-0.02%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3818	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.063318	+1.07%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3856	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.06228	+0.73%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2960	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064314	+0.44%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1858	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064474	+0.36%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0087	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.061047	+0.75%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.0765	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062724	+1.28%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0678	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067926	+0.38%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0500	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067922	+0.71%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0331	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.0681	+1.03%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0467	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.069346	+0.86%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1474	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069576	+1.34%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1555	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.071309	+2.41%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1653	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067147	-0.18%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.1136	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067487	+0.03%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0845	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069587	+1.77%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0770	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.0689	+1.56%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0691	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.072402	+2.55%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.1081	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.073758	+3.19%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0814	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.077662	+6.01%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.1139	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.076426	+5.83%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.1302	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.07308	+5.90%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.1244	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.076747	+6.19%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.2193	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.077144	+5.03%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1685	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.077759	+4.46%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1950	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.093386	+2.70%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3612	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083414	-0.90%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2819	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.077627	-3.86%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2473	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.074107	-6.16%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2547	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.072657	-6.15%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2562	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.072616	-6.88%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2411	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.074287	-6.87%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2892	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.070908	-5.57%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2484	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.07124	-5.49%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.2162	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.072442	-5.35%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2509	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.072664	-5.21%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2996	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.073454	-5.02%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.3169	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.071023	-4.09%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1844	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.074282	-3.80%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.2368	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.07496	-3.76%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2591	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.080261	-4.72%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.3213	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.077073	-4.27%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2769	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.073735	-3.88%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.2297	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.073428	-3.99%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.2288	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.072978	-3.81%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.2145	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.072282	-3.87%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.2019	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.075837	-4.05%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2491	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.076786	-3.43%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.2127	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.077322	-3.58%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.2079	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.076585	-3.31%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1838	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.076548	-3.49%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1917	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.08395	-3.55%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2973	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.081603	-3.52%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.2281	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.081326	-3.66%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.2009	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.07345	-3.27%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0847	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.081341	-3.45%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0157	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.082437	-3.48%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0330	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.082624	-3.74%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0513	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.086441	-4.22%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0903	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.088022	-4.45%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1245	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.087631	-4.46%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.1032	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.087164	-4.57%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0774	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.085637	-4.28%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.1126	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.083718	-4.19%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0851	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.089473	-5.54%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1751	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.095081	-6.95%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2121	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.091672	-6.75%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1723	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.094904	-8.71%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2586	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.098389	-11.70%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.2692	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.081214	-6.71%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0780	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.079506	-6.51%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0456	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.087201	-8.06%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0873	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.085228	-7.72%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1118	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.08529	-7.31%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1144	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.087821	-7.52%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1600	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.09222	-8.90%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2230	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.109019	-16.48%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.3739	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.089059	-11.12%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2054	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.077122	-5.07%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0271	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.075955	-5.82%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0198	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.071529	-4.47%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0494	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.064234	-4.14%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2283	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.068318	-3.90%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1470	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.078787	-5.55%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0286	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.089218	-10.32%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.1874	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.086905	-7.79%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0552	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.085801	-8.50%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0418	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.082483	-6.75%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0280	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.087653	-10.41%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0139	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.085848	-9.95%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0463	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.074274	-4.53%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2194	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.072808	-4.37%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.2555	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.074082	-5.72%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2127	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.069331	-3.10%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2421	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.067276	-2.64%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.3751	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.071839	-4.11%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.3492	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.070406	-3.71%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3305	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.061845	-1.61%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.4829	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.063313	-2.07%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.5449	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063192	-2.39%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3319	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.06759	-3.62%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.2294	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.064599	-2.71%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.3426	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.060829	-2.11%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.3838	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.061259	-2.81%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4169	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.067108	-4.34%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.3681	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.062523	-3.78%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.5691	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.067231	-5.64%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.8445	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.066696	-6.52%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.6638	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.070742	-8.10%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.3640	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.069903	-8.44%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.3747	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.057751	-5.15%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.4954	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.058704	-5.64%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.3800	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.058151	-6.47%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.4898	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.06342	-7.76%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5398	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.063394	-7.45%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.6821	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.06661	-7.55%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5513	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.066197	-6.90%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5461	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.075283	-10.38%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3250	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.070016	-8.66%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5104	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.065683	-7.19%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5414	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.066654	-6.77%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3049	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.065974	-6.34%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.2868	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.071269	-5.97%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2331	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.071035	-5.17%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1668	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.082437	-5.16%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0354	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.083195	-6.34%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0391	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.100155	-9.38%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2325	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.096428	-7.93%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2996	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.091159	-7.23%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1962	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.089008	-7.54%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1973	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.083638	-7.15%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0614	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.084695	-7.89%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.1112	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.08132	-7.64%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0941	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.08276	-8.57%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1279	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.085262	-9.99%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0544	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.086974	-12.11%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.1794	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.100471	-13.68%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.2852	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.094229	-14.48%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2419	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.093133	-17.12%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.1688	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.104901	-19.24%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.2958	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.110531	-20.18%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.5588	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.108653	-20.67%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.5174	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.109293	-18.32%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.5272	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.107808	-19.95%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.4446	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.099324	-19.04%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.3653	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.108283	-20.27%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.3863	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.095067	-17.15%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.2545	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.100957	-22.73%	0.084	-35.71%	0.1995	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.08903	-21.88%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.1707	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.072571	-15.81%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.0642	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.076995	-15.59%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.0900	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.098147	-20.37%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.3357	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.123058	-25.94%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.5231	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.0718	-16.06%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.0125	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.065653	-12.63%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1917	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.059155	-9.96%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3436	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.054403	-8.57%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5799	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.049708	-9.10%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6335	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.04804	-10.80%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5969	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.046889	-12.50%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.6030	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.056642	-8.55%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3435	✗	1.00