BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s9

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

54.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0600

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0073

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050754	-0.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.05001	-0.23%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0194	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047285	-0.17%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0471	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.04871	-0.26%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0263	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052715	-0.63%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0828	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055508	-0.88%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0441	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044583	-0.04%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2349	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043801	-0.03%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0120	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.04781	-0.12%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0716	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054658	-0.10%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1473	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066129	-0.16%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1745	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067878	-0.24%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0308	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.0683	-0.33%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0068	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065712	-0.38%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0348	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067217	-0.41%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0061	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066944	-0.28%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0287	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062131	-0.06%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0792	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062384	-0.05%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0036	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.06183	-0.06%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0070	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062793	-0.07%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0170	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065141	-0.13%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0328	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066037	-0.19%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0242	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066721	-0.27%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0078	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067025	-0.25%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0035	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070616	-0.49%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0433	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070679	-0.64%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0037	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069	-0.31%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0285	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066728	-0.24%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0383	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063556	-0.15%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0511	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068614	-0.45%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0631	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.067845	-0.49%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0190	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065903	-0.37%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0085	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065299	-0.32%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0135	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065052	-0.20%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0043	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062403	-0.09%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0108	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061372	-0.08%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0160	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063134	-0.10%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0305	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062631	-0.02%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0229	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061814	-0.03%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0060	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063981	-0.08%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0316	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064157	-0.14%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0023	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060624	+0.06%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0545	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.06198	+0.08%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0139	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067674	+0.01%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0876	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067458	+0.03%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0074	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067447	+0.06%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0080	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068781	+0.04%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0236	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068695	+0.06%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0002	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069713	+0.12%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0043	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067243	-0.04%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0084	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067441	-0.04%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0019	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068407	+0.05%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0074	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067854	+0.02%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0015	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070633	+0.05%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0366	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071514	+0.05%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0155	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073327	+0.09%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0095	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072245	+0.04%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0061	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069065	+0.08%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0414	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.0723	+0.03%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0438	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073409	-0.06%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0242	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.07434	-0.13%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0168	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.09021	-0.79%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1846	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083734	-0.52%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0559	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.08025	-0.61%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0233	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078509	-0.59%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0067	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076986	-0.56%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0238	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077455	-0.68%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0147	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079168	-0.76%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0135	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074873	-0.29%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0630	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075133	-0.32%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0034	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076254	-0.37%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0117	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.07633	-0.43%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0039	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.076968	-0.48%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0003	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073828	-0.31%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0569	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076936	-0.36%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0375	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077582	-0.39%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0049	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083779	-0.55%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0803	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080112	-0.49%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0542	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076444	-0.35%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0456	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076218	-0.34%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0001	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.07564	-0.30%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0114	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074986	-0.28%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0041	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078776	-0.33%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0459	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079277	-0.30%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0172	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079948	-0.31%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0138	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078996	-0.27%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0146	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079097	-0.28%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0000	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086754	-0.33%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0756	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084309	-0.32%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0235	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084138	-0.33%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0035	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075729	-0.26%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1173	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084009	-0.29%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0922	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085167	-0.28%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0071	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085574	-0.30%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0111	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.08992	-0.37%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0507	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091748	-0.40%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0151	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.09134	-0.41%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0028	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090934	-0.44%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0068	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089126	-0.38%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0346	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087067	-0.36%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0307	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.0942	-0.55%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1196	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101309	-0.86%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0441	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097505	-0.81%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0474	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.1026	-1.31%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0375	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.108863	-2.29%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0609	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086377	-0.78%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2416	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084468	-0.67%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0445	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.093783	-1.13%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0894	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091279	-1.17%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0325	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.090955	-1.16%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0083	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093764	-1.26%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0268	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.099546	-1.66%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0625	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.124995	-4.24%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2391	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.097539	-2.66%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2692	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080637	-0.75%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2476	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079863	-0.98%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0071	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074506	-0.49%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0861	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066839	-0.26%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1145	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070923	-0.23%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0612	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.08291	-0.61%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1365	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.097631	-1.87%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1387	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093221	-1.09%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0803	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092503	-1.35%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0104	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087634	-0.92%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0796	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.09588	-2.00%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0902	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.09351	-1.91%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0376	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077361	-0.56%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2331	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075706	-0.56%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0454	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077837	-0.94%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0120	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071363	-0.26%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0878	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.06899	-0.16%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0175	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.07462	-0.40%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0909	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.07291	-0.29%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0276	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062913	+0.08%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1214	✓	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064679	+0.05%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0252	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064752	+0.02%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0177	✓	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.07002	-0.16%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0751	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066414	+0.02%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0220	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062225	+0.14%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0674	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063075	+0.07%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0243	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.070031	-0.17%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1021	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064967	-0.02%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1200	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.071036	-0.30%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0186	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.071055	-0.41%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0378	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076342	-0.82%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0647	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075606	-0.97%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0119	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060888	-0.00%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2286	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062199	-0.03%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0087	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062162	-0.02%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0252	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068582	-0.25%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0772	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068365	-0.20%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0017	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071829	-0.31%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0522	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070937	-0.23%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0022	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.08306	-1.12%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1316	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076225	-0.55%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0963	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070673	-0.14%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0734	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071404	-0.12%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0070	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070419	-0.03%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0203	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.07568	-0.15%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0643	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074831	-0.10%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0232	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086615	-0.35%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1297	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088404	-0.48%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0314	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.10899	-1.38%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.1993	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103473	-1.20%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0728	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097035	-1.25%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0793	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095297	-1.01%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0213	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.08945	-0.70%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0707	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091246	-0.77%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0140	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087441	-0.69%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0611	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.089826	-0.77%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0240	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.093871	-0.90%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0447	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.097859	-1.11%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0437	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.114635	-1.51%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1461	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.108607	-1.43%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0658	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.110449	-1.71%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0185	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.126913	-2.29%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1267	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.134789	-2.66%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0296	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.132533	-3.24%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0574	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.130043	-2.82%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0686	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.130466	-3.13%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0122	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.119205	-2.84%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1196	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.130571	-3.86%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0518	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.111404	-2.91%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1972	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.124589	-4.64%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1064	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.108734	-4.59%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1773	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.084401	-2.09%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2730	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.089085	-2.34%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0073	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.117936	-4.31%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2391	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.155698	-6.29%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2591	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.082743	-3.26%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6928	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.073445	-2.26%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1436	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064559	-1.74%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1554	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059006	-0.84%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0566	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054257	-0.78%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1247	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053345	-0.95%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0236	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053	-1.10%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0006	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061499	-0.71%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1476	✓	1.00