XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s8

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +7d

assessed

113

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

55.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1821

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0303

actual -0.0467

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004262	-2.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004245	-2.19%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004266	-2.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004203	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004414	-2.36%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004436	-2.38%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004473	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.00424	-2.30%	0.004362	+0.52%	0.0327	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004082	-2.02%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0608	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004031	-2.16%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.0799	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003939	-1.84%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.0864	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003967	-1.90%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1307	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003974	-1.91%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1340	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003843	-1.92%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.1760	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004072	-1.70%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0613	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004067	-1.28%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0238	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.00403	-1.17%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0206	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004382	-1.14%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0925	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.00377	-1.24%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0657	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004904	-1.68%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1958	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004933	-1.68%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2367	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004916	-1.94%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1729	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004212	-1.31%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0095	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004476	-1.44%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0789	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004401	-1.20%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0167	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.00456	-1.23%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1762	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004665	-1.32%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0689	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005027	-1.73%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0003	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004391	-1.00%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1283	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004324	-0.69%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0229	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.00431	-0.61%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0424	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004321	-1.18%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0448	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004508	-1.22%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0380	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004725	-1.44%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0136	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005267	-3.34%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0111	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004295	-1.13%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0507	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003818	-0.49%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1872	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003861	-0.34%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1471	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003638	-0.19%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1970	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003062	+0.22%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.4086	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003877	-0.17%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.2216	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003957	-0.30%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.3196	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004	-0.25%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0771	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004856	-0.92%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2439	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.00479	-0.93%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2146	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004691	-0.56%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2611	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004511	-0.41%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.3961	✓	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.00472	-0.51%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2012	✓	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005037	-0.59%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2530	✓	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.004953	-1.26%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2074	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004933	-1.20%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0024	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004619	-1.08%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0474	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.004994	-1.03%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0490	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005053	-1.01%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1046	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.00514	-1.14%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0747	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005337	-0.89%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0486	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005352	-1.21%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0709	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005162	-1.32%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0374	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005204	-1.36%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1100	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005092	-1.64%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0093	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.004994	-1.83%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0266	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004843	-1.70%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0692	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005622	-2.73%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0545	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005566	-3.18%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0375	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.00561	-3.60%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.0875	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005672	-3.71%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.0904	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005753	-3.95%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1262	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005758	-3.92%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1438	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005698	-3.69%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1664	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005706	-3.77%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0015	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005832	-3.89%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0236	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006202	-4.20%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0655	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006491	-4.52%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.0978	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006464	-4.69%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0728	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006159	-4.57%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0242	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.0066	-4.93%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.1060	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006722	-5.01%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1240	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006915	-5.54%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1286	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006229	-5.17%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0388	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006057	-5.11%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1155	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005775	-4.85%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1611	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.00568	-4.64%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1298	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.00573	-4.65%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.1938	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005699	-4.69%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2164	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005763	-4.41%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2393	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005612	-4.13%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1574	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005863	-4.22%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.0849	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006037	-4.72%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0041	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006017	-4.69%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0123	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005977	-4.78%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0034	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005913	-4.79%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0109	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005841	-4.75%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0319	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006018	-5.34%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0277	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005909	-5.46%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0332	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005526	-4.75%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1387	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005515	-4.93%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1338	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005503	-5.09%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1323	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005711	-5.47%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.0885	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005749	-5.86%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.0688	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006021	-6.66%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0312	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005115	-5.97%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1542	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005464	-6.80%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0452	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005084	-7.28%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.1160	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004621	-7.57%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2306	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005119	-8.55%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1563	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003863	-5.35%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.4188	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003664	-5.17%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.5396	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003045	-6.03%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.6079	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003037	-6.32%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.6553	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002781	-7.30%	0.005483	+82.76%	0.6680	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002236	-8.45%	0.005	+104.73%	0.7794	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006431	-2.92%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1661	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007067	-1.69%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5862	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006846	-1.26%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6508	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007772	-1.79%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9368	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008618	-1.89%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0446	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008813	-1.99%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1289	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008984	-2.02%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3437	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009128	-1.99%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3499	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010196	-2.45%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3326	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.