XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s8

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +30d

assessed

91

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

68.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2267

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0533

actual -0.0970

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004107	-4.74%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004122	-4.40%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004137	-4.67%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004153	-4.86%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004091	-4.86%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.00429	-5.11%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.00431	-5.15%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004346	-5.13%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004116	-5.15%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.003967	-4.76%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003911	-5.08%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003832	-4.51%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003852	-4.75%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003853	-4.88%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003714	-5.20%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.00395	-4.64%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.003966	-3.75%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003933	-3.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004299	-3.02%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003662	-4.06%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004778	-4.21%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.00482	-3.92%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004798	-4.30%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004093	-4.09%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004357	-4.06%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004297	-3.54%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004455	-3.51%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004566	-3.42%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004957	-3.10%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004313	-2.77%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004276	-1.78%	0.004312	-0.97%	0.0006	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004273	-1.45%	0.004312	-0.57%	0.0008	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004207	-3.79%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.0390	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004401	-3.55%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0055	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.00462	-3.63%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0673	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005124	-5.97%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.1136	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004216	-2.95%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.0873	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003738	-2.59%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.2389	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003804	-1.82%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.1446	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003582	-1.73%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.1699	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003003	-1.72%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.3272	✗	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003809	-1.94%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0684	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003898	-1.77%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0527	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.00397	-0.99%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0309	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004807	-1.92%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.1954	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004753	-1.69%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1264	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004662	-1.18%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1112	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004491	-0.85%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.0820	✓	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.00471	-0.70%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.0440	✓	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005058	-0.17%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.2713	✓	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.004945	-1.42%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0359	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004941	-1.04%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0431	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004632	-0.81%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.0949	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.00501	-0.72%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.1428	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005079	-0.49%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.0967	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005173	-0.49%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.1304	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005407	+0.41%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.1444	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005419	+0.03%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.1192	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005222	-0.17%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0001	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005277	+0.02%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.1551	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005149	-0.53%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.1365	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.00504	-0.93%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.1140	✓	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004894	-0.65%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.1028	✓	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005646	-2.31%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.2257	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005539	-3.65%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.1566	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005539	-4.81%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0314	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005602	-4.89%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.2692	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005671	-5.32%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.4086	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005678	-5.25%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.4036	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005608	-5.21%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.4498	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005614	-5.31%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.6286	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005744	-5.35%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.4115	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006134	-5.25%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.4540	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006446	-5.17%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.4922	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006434	-5.13%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.2924	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006107	-5.39%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.2551	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006573	-5.31%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.3555	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006691	-5.45%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.4152	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006922	-5.45%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.4007	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006184	-5.86%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.2040	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005993	-6.11%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.1747	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005684	-6.34%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.1261	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005569	-6.50%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.1631	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005615	-6.56%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.0944	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005586	-6.58%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.0905	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005634	-6.56%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.0776	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005465	-6.65%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.0099	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.00572	-6.56%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.0512	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005928	-6.45%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.1170	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.0059	-6.54%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.0942	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005862	-6.62%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.1055	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005797	-6.66%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.1220	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005719	-6.73%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.1501	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005919	-6.90%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.0236	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005788	-7.39%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.0014	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005348	-7.81%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.0844	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005337	-7.99%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.0977	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005326	-8.15%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.1136	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005536	-8.37%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.0766	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005581	-8.61%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.0528	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005872	-8.96%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.0340	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.004925	-9.47%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.1905	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005275	-10.03%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.2082	✗	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004904	-10.56%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.3244	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004441	-11.18%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.4123	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005014	-10.41%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.2255	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003672	-10.05%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.5953	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003442	-10.91%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.7059	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002804	-13.47%	0.00732	+125.94%	0.9504	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.00279	-13.92%	0.006568	+102.62%	0.8487	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002502	-16.60%	0.006383	+112.76%	0.9305	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.001907	-21.92%	0.00607	+148.53%	1.1423	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006319	-4.61%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.0798	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.006839	-4.86%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.1760	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006584	-5.03%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.1970	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.00753	-4.84%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.2826	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008368	-4.74%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.4283	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008562	-4.78%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.3965	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008728	-4.81%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.4056	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.008864	-4.82%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.4134	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.009959	-4.72%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.5111	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.