UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s8

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 189

Track record at +1d

assessed

62

of 63 predictions shown

direction hit

67.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1481

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0094

actual +0.0133

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.273691	-1.12%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.274245	-1.20%	0.276795	-0.28%	0.0161	✗	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.246427	-0.97%	0.277585	+11.55%	0.0881	✗	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.218381	-0.58%	0.24885	+13.29%	0.1355	✗	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.229687	-0.60%	0.21966	-4.94%	0.0626	✓	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.279034	-1.08%	0.23107	-18.08%	0.1852	✓	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.276847	-1.11%	0.28208	+0.76%	0.0365	✗	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.271527	-1.04%	0.279945	+2.03%	0.0146	✗	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.292164	-1.75%	0.27437	-7.74%	0.0197	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.19879	+0.17%	0.297375	+49.85%	0.3671	✓	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.235717	-0.26%	0.198445	-16.03%	0.1239	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.208931	+0.22%	0.23632	+13.35%	0.1044	✓	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.206429	+0.32%	0.20848	+1.31%	0.0009	✓	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.198824	+0.41%	0.20578	+3.92%	0.0133	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.229743	+0.24%	0.19801	-13.60%	0.1111	✗	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.243785	+0.06%	0.22919	-5.93%	0.0090	✗	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.26615	-0.10%	0.24363	-8.55%	0.0837	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.286872	-0.33%	0.266405	-7.44%	0.0571	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.289729	-0.20%	0.28781	-0.86%	0.0466	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.273436	+0.01%	0.290305	+6.18%	0.0544	✓	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.299263	-0.21%	0.27341	-8.83%	0.0825	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.401335	-1.13%	0.29989	-26.12%	0.3226	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.389085	-1.18%	0.40591	+3.09%	0.0443	✗	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.29119	+0.00%	0.39374	+35.22%	0.2972	✓	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.314351	-0.23%	0.291185	-7.58%	0.0519	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.362107	-0.65%	0.31507	-13.55%	0.1402	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.334531	-0.40%	0.36447	+8.52%	0.0779	✗	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.338446	-0.45%	0.33586	-1.21%	0.0006	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.392268	-0.76%	0.33996	-14.00%	0.1433	✓	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.477833	-1.06%	0.39528	-18.16%	0.1504	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.549246	-1.41%	0.482965	-13.31%	0.1204	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.457341	-1.03%	0.55709	+20.55%	0.0939	✗	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.480015	-1.15%	0.46212	-4.84%	0.0366	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.573604	-1.91%	0.485615	-16.95%	0.1734	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.467431	-1.22%	0.58476	+23.57%	0.1512	✗	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.373158	-0.17%	0.47322	+26.60%	0.2341	✗	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.318983	+0.01%	0.37378	+17.19%	0.1491	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.369845	-0.27%	0.318955	-13.99%	0.1127	✓	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.377816	-0.32%	0.37084	-2.16%	0.0377	✓	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.352684	-0.37%	0.379015	+7.07%	0.0788	✗	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.380085	-0.52%	0.353985	-7.35%	0.0719	✓	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.394008	-0.62%	0.382085	-3.63%	0.0404	✓	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.415657	-0.76%	0.396465	-5.34%	0.0247	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.497245	-0.94%	0.41882	-16.56%	0.1695	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.551997	-1.06%	0.50196	-10.03%	0.0868	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.670005	-1.36%	0.55791	-17.86%	0.1674	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.774603	-1.99%	0.679235	-14.05%	0.1377	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.622285	-1.38%	0.790295	+25.24%	0.2370	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.755055	-1.90%	0.63101	-18.02%	0.1597	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.819248	-2.25%	0.76968	-8.17%	0.1123	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.848195	-2.98%	0.838135	-4.13%	0.0108	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.876459	-4.15%	0.87428	-4.39%	0.0124	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.508588	-3.06%	0.91438	+74.29%	0.5751	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.318381	-1.84%	0.52462	+61.75%	0.5067	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.238693	-1.06%	0.32435	+34.44%	0.3016	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.261044	-1.38%	0.24126	-8.85%	0.0480	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.359133	-3.52%	0.26469	-28.89%	0.3208	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.156113	-0.91%	0.37223	+136.28%	0.8626	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.194982	-1.85%	0.15754	-20.69%	0.2075	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.13939	-1.07%	0.19865	+40.99%	0.3383	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.084754	-0.41%	0.1409	+65.57%	0.4996	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.110347	-0.32%	0.0851	-23.13%	0.2434	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.104925	-0.45%	0.1107	+5.03%	0.0167	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.