UMX

UMX · · gru_s8

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +7d

assessed

60

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

83.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0607

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0364

actual -0.0708

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.045119	-3.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041494	-3.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.052857	-4.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.053583	-3.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054013	-3.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.057203	-3.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057225	-3.08%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.057462	-3.16%	0.0466	-21.47%	0.2136	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.05761	-3.05%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.2938	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.058532	-3.13%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0599	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.058422	-2.96%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0459	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.058819	-3.05%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0453	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059043	-3.12%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0053	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.058578	-3.23%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0062	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.059756	-3.35%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0004	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.059715	-3.24%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0067	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.059314	-3.85%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0382	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.059316	-3.88%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0292	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.058834	-4.17%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0398	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.059106	-4.20%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0404	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.059173	-3.75%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0389	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.058851	-4.14%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0507	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.058992	-3.62%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0356	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.058302	-3.82%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0449	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.058458	-3.76%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0432	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.058736	-3.81%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0425	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.058422	-4.09%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0523	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.058585	-4.23%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0456	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.05851	-4.35%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0528	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.058395	-3.85%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0636	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.058812	-3.85%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0510	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.058164	-5.32%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0214	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.057325	-5.18%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0414	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.058196	-5.17%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0235	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.058378	-4.53%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0048	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.059239	-4.47%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0210	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.058681	-3.58%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0320	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.058298	-3.67%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0192	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.058955	-2.99%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0064	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.060563	-3.25%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0342	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.062704	-3.60%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0517	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.063021	-3.13%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0286	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.062886	-3.04%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0071	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.064349	-3.23%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0268	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.065673	-3.51%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0722	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.067449	-3.55%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0644	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.069186	-3.74%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0674	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.069439	-3.65%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0339	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.070724	-3.29%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0235	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.071492	-3.70%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1099	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.071743	-3.55%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0894	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.072428	-3.36%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0688	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073208	-3.41%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0797	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.072865	-3.01%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0339	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.073999	-3.05%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0497	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.07509	-2.43%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0387	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.079623	-3.10%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0480	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.080885	-3.19%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0694	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.085743	-3.34%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1292	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.083783	-3.39%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.0994	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.083781	-3.38%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1242	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.081365	-2.51%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0577	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.080142	-3.16%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1354	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.081942	-3.44%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1285	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.082286	-3.14%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1787	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.081896	-3.25%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1230	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.081704	-3.26%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1531	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.