UMX

UMX · · gru_s8

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +30d

assessed

37

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1691

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1158

actual -0.2589

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.043744	-6.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.040312	-6.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.050967	-7.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.051618	-6.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.051908	-7.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.054993	-6.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.055172	-6.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.05539	-6.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.055906	-5.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.056537	-6.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.056898	-5.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.057117	-5.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.057206	-6.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.056405	-6.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.057559	-6.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.057753	-6.42%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.057055	-7.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.057233	-7.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.0564	-8.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.056629	-8.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.056784	-7.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.0561	-8.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.056162	-8.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.055366	-8.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.055641	-8.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.055729	-8.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.05523	-9.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.055363	-9.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.055169	-9.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.055537	-8.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.056034	-8.40%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.1583	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.053651	-12.67%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.2352	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.052846	-12.59%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0385	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.05349	-12.84%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0273	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.052952	-13.41%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0205	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.05358	-13.59%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0629	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.05302	-12.88%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0657	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.052872	-12.64%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0875	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.053253	-12.38%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0599	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.054682	-12.64%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0633	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.056546	-13.07%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0103	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.056744	-12.78%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0156	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.057046	-12.05%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0258	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.05852	-11.99%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0022	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.060062	-11.76%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0131	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.062275	-10.95%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.0644	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.063925	-11.06%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1071	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.064214	-10.90%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.1221	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.066424	-9.17%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.1206	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.06574	-11.45%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.1524	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.066217	-10.97%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.1661	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.06748	-9.97%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.1562	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.067954	-10.34%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.1786	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.068095	-9.36%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.1810	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.06916	-9.39%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2115	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.071628	-6.93%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2099	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.075434	-8.20%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.2759	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.076593	-8.33%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.2968	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.081587	-8.03%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.3541	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.079365	-8.48%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.3710	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.079308	-8.54%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.3764	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.078139	-6.38%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.2761	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.074476	-10.01%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3152	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.074872	-11.77%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3533	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.074305	-12.53%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3607	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.074016	-12.56%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3433	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.073748	-12.68%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.3768	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.