TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s8
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
85.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.3988
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0230
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001548 | -8.95% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001547 | -8.35% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001556 | -7.21% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001515 | -5.14% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001206 | -0.56% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001304 | -0.52% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.00133 | -0.35% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001443 | -0.29% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1389 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001503 | -0.15% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.0866 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001557 | -0.36% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0760 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001739 | -0.19% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0862 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002197 | -1.64% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5740 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002254 | -1.55% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5233 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002633 | -3.27% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6665 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002219 | -1.23% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4329 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002522 | -2.04% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4953 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002199 | -2.79% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3125 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002346 | -2.81% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2499 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003016 | -2.26% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2670 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003075 | -2.57% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2731 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003863 | -2.82% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3266 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003646 | -3.07% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4462 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003708 | -3.58% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3617 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.0038 | -3.66% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5411 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004864 | -3.13% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7277 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005397 | -2.92% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5829 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006048 | -3.25% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6542 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006876 | -4.01% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5529 | ✓ | 1.00 |