TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s8
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +1d
assessed
27
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
59.3%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1080
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0049
actual -0.0500
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001653 | -2.77% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001646 | -2.51% | 0.0017 | +0.71% | 0.0363 | ✗ | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001642 | -2.07% | 0.001688 | +0.66% | 0.0495 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001575 | -1.37% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0867 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001216 | +0.21% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2695 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001314 | +0.22% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0671 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001339 | +0.27% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0233 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001451 | +0.28% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0757 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.00151 | +0.32% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0493 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001567 | +0.28% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0219 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001747 | +0.31% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1280 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002231 | -0.12% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2242 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002287 | -0.09% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0329 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002704 | -0.66% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1708 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002247 | +0.02% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1812 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002568 | -0.25% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1142 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002254 | -0.35% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1596 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002405 | -0.37% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0589 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003075 | -0.36% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2331 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003143 | -0.41% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0389 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.00395 | -0.64% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2271 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003738 | -0.64% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0656 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003817 | -0.75% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0299 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003915 | -0.75% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0167 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004985 | -0.71% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2365 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005519 | -0.72% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0826 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006194 | -0.91% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1088 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007068 | -1.32% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1267 | ✓ | 1.00 |