BTW
Bitway · Ethereum · gru_s8
- token id
- #40
- symbol
- BTW
- variant
- –
- chain
- Ethereum
- address
- 0x3a63de3572c69a1307ff08394f3ee7702c16d25d
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-24
- predictions
- 150
Track record at +1d
assessed
49
of 50 predictions shown
direction hit
36.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1142
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0127
actual +0.0275
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 2.1044 | 2.0785 | -1.23% | – | pending | – | – | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 2.0432 | 2.0192 | -1.17% | 2.1044 | +3.00% | 0.0370 | ✗ | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 1.9664 | 1.9435 | -1.16% | 2.0432 | +3.91% | 0.0701 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 2.4152 | 2.3773 | -1.57% | 1.9664 | -18.58% | 0.1929 | ✓ | -1.54 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 2.4383 | 2.387 | -2.10% | 2.4152 | -0.95% | 0.0234 | ✗ | -1.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 1.9279 | 1.8968 | -1.61% | 2.4383 | +26.48% | 0.2489 | ✗ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 1.8166 | 1.7952 | -1.18% | 1.9279 | +6.12% | 0.0599 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 2.3803 | 2.3225 | -2.43% | 1.8166 | -23.68% | 0.2361 | ✓ | -1.40 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 2.0884 | 2.0366 | -2.48% | 2.3803 | +13.98% | 0.1313 | ✗ | -1.32 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 1.7495 | 1.7187 | -1.76% | 2.0884 | +19.36% | 0.2190 | ✗ | -1.47 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 1.6258 | 1.6012 | -1.51% | 1.7495 | +7.61% | 0.0545 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 1.5842 | 1.5639 | -1.28% | 1.6258 | +2.62% | 0.0523 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 1.5753 | 1.5529 | -1.42% | 1.5842 | +0.57% | 0.0264 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 1.3928 | 1.3761 | -1.20% | 1.5753 | +13.10% | 0.1509 | ✗ | -1.52 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 1.2975 | 1.2827 | -1.14% | 1.3928 | +7.34% | 0.0535 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 1.2135 | 1.2013 | -1.01% | 1.2975 | +6.93% | 0.0369 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 1.2336 | 1.2202 | -1.09% | 1.2135 | -1.63% | 0.0092 | ✓ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 1.2458 | 1.2307 | -1.22% | 1.2336 | -0.98% | 0.0112 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 1.0377 | 1.0288 | -0.86% | 1.2458 | +20.05% | 0.2280 | ✗ | -1.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 1.3815 | 1.3642 | -1.25% | 1.0377 | -24.89% | 0.2687 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 1.4183 | 1.3987 | -1.38% | 1.3815 | -2.59% | 0.0196 | ✓ | -1.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 1.329 | 1.3105 | -1.39% | 1.4183 | +6.72% | 0.1072 | ✗ | -1.83 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 1.3887 | 1.3651 | -1.70% | 1.329 | -4.31% | 0.0287 | ✓ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 1.1192 | 1.1038 | -1.37% | 1.3887 | +24.08% | 0.2336 | ✗ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 1.2207 | 1.203 | -1.45% | 1.1192 | -8.31% | 0.0959 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 1.0015 | 0.990475 | -1.11% | 1.2207 | +21.88% | 0.2101 | ✗ | -1.96 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 1.3154 | 1.2805 | -2.65% | 1.0015 | -23.86% | 0.2383 | ✓ | -1.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.9544 | 0.941802 | -1.32% | 1.3154 | +37.82% | 0.3277 | ✗ | -1.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 1.0378 | 1.0183 | -1.88% | 0.9544 | -8.04% | 0.0646 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.8978 | 0.885985 | -1.32% | 1.0378 | +15.59% | 0.1795 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.8007 | 0.788295 | -1.55% | 0.8978 | +12.13% | 0.1347 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.74705 | 0.73484 | -1.63% | 0.8007 | +7.18% | 0.0210 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.5903 | 0.585673 | -0.78% | 0.74705 | +26.55% | 0.2443 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.6302 | 0.624904 | -0.84% | 0.5903 | -6.33% | 0.0614 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.7199 | 0.711966 | -1.10% | 0.6302 | -12.46% | 0.1796 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.7502 | 0.739807 | -1.39% | 0.7199 | -4.04% | 0.0299 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.70505 | 0.694636 | -1.48% | 0.7502 | +6.40% | 0.0696 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.5826 | 0.576617 | -1.03% | 0.70505 | +21.02% | 0.2348 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.73445 | 0.71602 | -2.51% | 0.5826 | -20.68% | 0.2240 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.5503 | 0.545212 | -0.92% | 0.73445 | +33.46% | 0.3040 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.5088 | 0.505256 | -0.70% | 0.5503 | +8.16% | 0.0847 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.50005 | 0.495593 | -0.89% | 0.5088 | +1.75% | 0.0176 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.4511 | 0.449339 | -0.39% | 0.50005 | +10.85% | 0.1295 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.43775 | 0.436319 | -0.33% | 0.4511 | +3.05% | 0.0354 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.45105 | 0.449224 | -0.40% | 0.43775 | -2.95% | 0.0177 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.4474 | 0.44601 | -0.31% | 0.45105 | +0.82% | 0.0269 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.4522 | 0.450481 | -0.38% | 0.4474 | -1.06% | 0.0132 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.45655 | 0.4543 | -0.49% | 0.4522 | -0.95% | 0.0066 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.4544 | 0.451383 | -0.66% | 0.45655 | +0.47% | 0.0311 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.4896 | 0.485577 | -0.82% | 0.4544 | -7.19% | 0.1163 | ✓ | 1.00 |