UMX

UMX · · gru_s7

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

83.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0675

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0243

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.041894	+0.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.039532	+0.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.043006	+0.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.05454	-1.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055222	-0.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055647	-0.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058802	-0.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058841	-0.35%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3483	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.059039	-0.51%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4147	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059248	-0.29%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3219	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060066	-0.59%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0858	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.060036	-0.28%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0732	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060374	-0.49%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0714	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060549	-0.65%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0199	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.05995	-0.96%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0170	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061182	-1.04%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0232	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061273	-0.72%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0190	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.060911	-1.26%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0116	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.060976	-1.19%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0016	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060375	-1.66%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0139	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060554	-1.86%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0162	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.06047	-1.64%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0172	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060037	-2.20%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0307	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060024	-1.94%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0182	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059322	-2.13%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0275	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.059527	-2.00%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0251	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.059783	-2.09%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0248	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.059493	-2.33%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0342	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059705	-2.39%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0267	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.059643	-2.50%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0336	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059628	-1.82%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0427	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060117	-1.72%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0291	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.059155	-3.71%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0045	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.058251	-3.65%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0253	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.059114	-3.68%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0079	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.058814	-3.82%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0122	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.05967	-3.77%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0282	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.058771	-3.43%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0335	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.058284	-3.69%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0189	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.058669	-3.46%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0113	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.060407	-3.50%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0316	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.062774	-3.49%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0529	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.062815	-3.45%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0253	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.062794	-3.19%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0085	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.064449	-3.08%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0283	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.066109	-2.87%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0788	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.06823	-2.43%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0759	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.070094	-2.48%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0804	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.070288	-2.47%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0461	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.071814	-1.80%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0388	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.072168	-2.79%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1193	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.072374	-2.70%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0982	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.073176	-2.37%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0791	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073796	-2.63%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0877	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.073306	-2.43%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0399	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074407	-2.52%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0552	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.075699	-1.64%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0468	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.080536	-1.99%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0594	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.08181	-2.08%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0807	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.086915	-2.02%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1428	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.084711	-2.32%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1105	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.084547	-2.49%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1333	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.081869	-1.91%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0638	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.079651	-3.76%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1292	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.080913	-4.65%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1159	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.080931	-4.73%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1621	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.080328	-5.11%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1036	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.079996	-5.29%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1320	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.