UMX

UMX · · gru_s7

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +30d

assessed

37

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1867

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0799

actual -0.2589

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.043602	-6.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.039943	-6.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.05192	-5.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.052271	-5.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.052472	-6.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.05573	-5.69%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.055654	-5.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.055855	-5.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.056039	-5.69%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.05682	-5.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.056826	-5.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.057114	-5.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.057317	-5.95%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.056705	-6.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.058115	-6.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.058515	-5.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.058296	-5.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.058474	-5.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.057777	-5.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.057981	-6.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.05785	-5.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.057304	-6.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.057136	-6.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.056394	-6.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.056551	-6.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.05671	-7.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.056404	-7.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.0566	-7.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.056456	-7.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.056456	-7.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.056948	-6.90%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.1745	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.05573	-9.29%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.2732	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.054768	-9.42%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0028	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.055509	-9.55%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0098	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.055277	-9.60%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0225	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.056003	-9.69%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0186	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.055253	-9.21%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0244	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.054912	-9.27%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0496	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.05532	-8.98%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0218	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.056804	-9.25%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0252	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.058806	-9.59%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0289	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.058936	-9.41%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0223	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.058987	-9.05%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0077	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.060442	-9.10%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0301	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.061909	-9.04%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0434	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.06391	-8.61%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.0904	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.065858	-8.37%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1369	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.066371	-7.91%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.1551	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.068299	-6.61%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.1485	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.068937	-7.14%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.1999	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.06952	-6.53%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.2148	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.070487	-5.95%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.1998	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.071206	-6.05%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2254	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.070949	-5.57%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.2220	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.072049	-5.61%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2524	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.073376	-4.66%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2340	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.07788	-5.22%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.3078	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.07911	-5.31%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3291	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.083981	-5.33%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.3830	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.08191	-5.55%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.4025	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.081837	-5.62%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.4078	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.079576	-4.65%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.2943	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.077046	-6.90%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3491	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.077923	-8.17%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3933	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.077538	-8.73%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.4033	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.077119	-8.90%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3844	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.076897	-8.96%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.4186	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.