ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s7

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

63.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2382

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0303

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001333	-2.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001225	-2.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001229	-2.68%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001123	-2.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001199	-2.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001242	-2.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001225	-2.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001072	-1.05%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2250	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001123	-1.86%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1174	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001112	-1.32%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1257	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001327	-2.86%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1124	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001318	-2.85%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0386	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.0012	-2.43%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0831	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001315	-2.93%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0529	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001395	-3.49%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2185	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001505	-3.79%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2264	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001567	-3.97%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2487	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001573	-3.95%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.0817	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001626	-4.23%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1416	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001682	-4.39%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2708	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001803	-4.50%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2198	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001784	-4.78%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2046	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001712	-4.76%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1289	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001623	-4.62%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0406	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.00181	-5.00%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1424	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001881	-5.13%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1093	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001911	-5.29%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.0917	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002126	-5.86%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1282	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001833	-5.25%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0399	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002034	-5.77%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.0695	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001666	-4.45%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0886	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001489	-0.73%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1743	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001741	-2.55%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0616	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001792	-2.11%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0477	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001632	+1.71%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1510	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001721	+1.72%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0575	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001714	+2.29%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0276	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.00183	+1.53%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1995	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001933	+1.57%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3378	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001862	+1.86%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1194	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001981	+1.25%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1503	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002057	+0.82%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2444	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002173	-0.61%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2063	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002212	-1.21%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2069	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002266	-1.83%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2067	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002482	-2.51%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1768	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002422	-2.50%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2186	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002945	-2.63%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3490	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003033	-2.45%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2804	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002267	-2.52%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0596	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002324	-2.42%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0621	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.00258	-2.05%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1231	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002876	-2.42%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1793	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002504	-2.09%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0430	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002043	-2.76%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3518	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002272	-2.05%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2932	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002109	-2.65%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1350	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001871	-3.40%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2658	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.00221	-2.66%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1835	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002294	-2.80%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2518	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002564	-2.87%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0270	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002514	-2.62%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1695	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002912	-4.60%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4346	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002191	-4.30%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2472	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001862	-4.50%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2894	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001896	-4.54%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1560	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001789	-4.47%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0711	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001867	-4.50%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0168	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001991	-4.62%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.0995	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001852	-4.53%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2664	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002101	-4.97%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0648	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001933	-4.83%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0213	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001671	-4.55%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1575	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001634	-4.86%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1899	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001507	-5.15%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.3092	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001521	-5.02%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3619	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002013	-5.00%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0158	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001899	-4.98%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1817	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002219	-6.84%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0763	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001285	-5.26%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2998	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001281	-5.41%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2634	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001499	-4.71%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0064	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001599	-4.57%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0491	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001621	-4.42%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2783	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00167	-4.39%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1627	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001725	-4.33%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3181	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001973	-4.98%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3696	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.00194	-4.63%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3170	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002164	-6.07%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2810	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002148	-7.23%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2202	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001426	-3.76%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1814	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001312	-3.50%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3423	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001486	-4.21%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2612	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001158	-3.30%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6180	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001183	-3.25%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5267	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001302	-3.50%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5824	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001368	-3.92%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5214	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001021	-1.97%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3441	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001024	-2.14%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2533	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001129	-2.50%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2834	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001037	-0.84%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0811	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001182	-1.93%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0154	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001293	-2.24%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0214	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001127	-1.48%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2387	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001084	-0.83%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0525	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000995507	-0.75%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0018	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001125	-1.25%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0013	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001374	-1.29%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2420	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001445	-1.17%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1843	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001521	-1.03%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1520	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001834	-1.14%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5033	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001551	-0.23%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3799	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001816	+0.03%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6414	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001828	+0.57%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5764	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002211	-0.68%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5337	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002262	-0.55%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5138	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002467	-0.96%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5321	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.0025	-1.06%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3458	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002293	-0.77%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4210	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002547	-1.45%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3213	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002657	-2.06%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3083	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003032	-2.43%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2504	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003196	-2.30%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2790	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003565	-2.68%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2930	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.00371	-2.72%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3291	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004333	-3.90%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5722	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.00383	-2.96%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3229	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003652	-2.85%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2353	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003836	-3.47%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1631	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003459	-2.62%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0077	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003477	-2.49%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0562	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003269	-2.00%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1553	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004096	-4.82%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1098	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002917	-0.14%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2822	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002765	+0.49%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2811	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.00336	-1.18%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1564	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002734	+0.91%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2538	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002591	+2.15%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3226	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002807	+1.70%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1744	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.00343	-0.35%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2243	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003832	-1.10%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2976	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.00384	-1.85%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3851	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004089	-3.97%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3827	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004399	-5.20%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8052	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004791	-5.68%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0489	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005225	-6.16%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0204	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005011	-5.94%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6692	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005638	-7.46%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7145	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004258	-4.32%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2598	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.00477	-6.30%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2578	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004046	-2.59%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1823	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.00427	-3.19%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2119	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004018	-1.01%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3542	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003754	-0.55%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4036	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003844	-1.08%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5021	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004181	-2.27%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0747	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004935	-4.45%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0269	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005153	-4.83%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2102	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005329	-5.02%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1704	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005347	-4.99%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2289	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005814	-4.73%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3874	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005696	-4.98%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3592	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005991	-4.84%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.2895	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005654	-4.37%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0301	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.0048	-4.30%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1805	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005794	-4.30%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0001	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.00608	-4.45%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0631	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007722	-7.34%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2487	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.00628	-4.79%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0199	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004214	-3.25%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4067	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004125	-3.64%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3367	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.