ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s7

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

76.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4651

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0745

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001294	-5.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001194	-5.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001195	-5.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001092	-4.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001162	-5.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001202	-5.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001185	-5.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001037	-4.31%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001085	-5.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001072	-4.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001283	-6.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.00127	-6.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001152	-6.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.00126	-6.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001335	-7.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001441	-7.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001498	-8.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001506	-8.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001549	-8.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001599	-9.07%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001712	-9.30%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001688	-9.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001618	-9.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001535	-9.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001708	-10.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001772	-10.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001798	-10.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.001998	-11.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001726	-10.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.00192	-11.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001587	-8.98%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.0601	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001422	-5.18%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1615	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001647	-7.84%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.2786	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001692	-7.60%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4126	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001544	-3.78%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3386	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001623	-4.07%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3555	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001614	-3.68%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3775	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001721	-4.51%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5257	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001814	-4.70%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5811	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001747	-4.43%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5269	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001858	-4.99%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4319	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001932	-5.32%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4794	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002049	-6.29%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.5937	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.00209	-6.66%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5110	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002148	-6.93%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.4932	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002367	-7.03%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5381	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002309	-7.08%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4847	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002834	-6.30%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.7060	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002937	-5.55%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6291	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002158	-7.22%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3678	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002225	-6.60%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3343	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002497	-5.19%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3940	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002794	-5.20%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5666	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002431	-4.92%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4698	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001963	-6.56%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1719	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002214	-4.53%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1956	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002042	-5.73%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1159	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001799	-7.15%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.1060	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.00215	-5.29%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2040	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002231	-5.48%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1934	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002497	-5.40%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5452	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002465	-4.53%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5540	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.0028	-8.27%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6818	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002091	-8.67%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4101	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001761	-9.70%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3738	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001792	-9.74%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3332	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001688	-9.85%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3096	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001764	-9.79%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3314	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001881	-9.86%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3157	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001749	-9.82%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2828	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001983	-10.30%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3472	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001826	-10.11%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2017	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001577	-9.94%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0195	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001537	-10.50%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0557	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001411	-11.22%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1641	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001426	-10.92%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2573	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001898	-10.41%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0805	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001792	-10.32%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1928	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002085	-12.46%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0412	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001198	-11.66%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3852	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001193	-11.87%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.4112	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001411	-10.29%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2766	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.00151	-9.90%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3403	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001535	-9.48%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2304	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001583	-9.37%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0129	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001637	-9.22%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0154	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001862	-10.32%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1585	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.00184	-9.54%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2222	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002029	-11.92%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.2130	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002015	-12.98%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.1114	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001371	-7.47%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3827	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001266	-6.92%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4292	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001433	-7.61%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6021	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001117	-6.73%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6279	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001142	-6.59%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5347	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001258	-6.75%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4639	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001322	-7.18%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3737	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.00098682	-5.20%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7009	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.00098902	-5.45%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7870	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001094	-5.55%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6088	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001005	-3.89%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7633	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001148	-4.72%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5746	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001258	-4.90%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3277	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.00109	-4.71%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4396	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001046	-4.31%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3834	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000953232	-4.96%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4676	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001085	-4.70%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6516	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001345	-3.38%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3853	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001416	-3.14%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5117	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001493	-2.88%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1030	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001809	-2.48%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3089	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001523	-2.03%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0095	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001795	-1.12%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1286	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.00181	-0.42%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1969	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002183	-1.95%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2918	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002232	-1.84%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2959	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002429	-2.48%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2271	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002458	-2.73%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2874	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002252	-2.54%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0593	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002495	-3.48%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1270	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002589	-4.57%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.5973	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.00295	-5.10%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8058	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003112	-4.86%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7468	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003459	-5.56%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0749	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003602	-5.56%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0986	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004168	-7.57%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1607	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003711	-5.98%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9469	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003544	-5.72%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1869	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003706	-6.75%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2333	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003363	-5.32%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0524	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003381	-5.18%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1298	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003191	-4.36%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9776	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003923	-8.83%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0911	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002859	-2.12%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9342	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.00271	-1.51%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9180	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003264	-4.01%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1768	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002666	-1.57%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8507	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002525	-0.44%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5928	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002734	-0.93%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6243	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003322	-3.49%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7780	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003692	-4.70%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7035	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003672	-6.13%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9133	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003837	-9.88%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0282	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004087	-11.91%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.2978	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004438	-12.62%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1272	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004828	-13.29%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.1888	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004627	-13.16%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0425	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005186	-14.87%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2068	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.003938	-11.51%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8579	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004402	-13.51%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9594	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003749	-9.72%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1175	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.003957	-10.28%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0603	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00373	-8.11%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0453	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003486	-7.66%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2381	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003574	-8.04%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2644	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003896	-8.92%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3456	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004612	-10.72%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0216	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004816	-11.06%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.0825	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.004984	-11.16%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0622	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005011	-10.97%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1590	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005492	-10.01%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2020	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005352	-10.72%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2512	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.00566	-10.10%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0381	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005373	-9.11%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3243	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004538	-9.53%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2133	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005503	-9.10%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2355	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005777	-9.21%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5208	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.00724	-13.13%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7753	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006044	-8.36%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4954	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004005	-8.06%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0859	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003905	-8.78%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2127	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.