TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s6
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +7d
assessed
20
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
95.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4221
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0151
actual -0.4158
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001722 | -3.88% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001635 | -2.48% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.00158 | -1.09% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001232 | +1.53% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001333 | +1.64% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001356 | +1.57% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001466 | +1.33% | – | pending | – | – | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001526 | +1.40% | 0.001791 | +19.00% | 0.1463 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001571 | +0.51% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0673 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.00176 | +1.05% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0985 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002228 | -0.29% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5877 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002284 | -0.25% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5364 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002677 | -1.67% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6829 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002239 | -0.37% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4416 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002523 | -1.96% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4961 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002191 | -3.15% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3087 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002338 | -3.14% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2465 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003021 | -2.11% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2685 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003082 | -2.35% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2753 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003893 | -2.05% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3344 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003686 | -2.03% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4570 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003758 | -2.28% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3752 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003862 | -2.07% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5575 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.00493 | -1.82% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7411 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005466 | -1.68% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5955 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006118 | -2.13% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6658 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006922 | -3.37% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5595 | ✓ | 1.00 |