TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s6
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +1d
assessed
26
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
53.8%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1117
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0020
actual -0.0511
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001776 | -0.85% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001668 | -0.52% | 0.001791 | +6.80% | 0.0660 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001593 | -0.24% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0753 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001221 | +0.68% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2648 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.00132 | +0.70% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0719 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001344 | +0.69% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0274 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001456 | +0.60% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0790 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001514 | +0.62% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0523 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001569 | +0.39% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0230 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001751 | +0.53% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1302 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002236 | +0.11% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2264 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002292 | +0.12% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0350 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.00271 | -0.43% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1732 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002249 | +0.10% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1804 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002562 | -0.47% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1120 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002246 | -0.70% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1630 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002397 | -0.71% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0555 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003069 | -0.56% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2312 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003138 | -0.57% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0373 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003951 | -0.59% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2276 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003741 | -0.56% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0648 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003823 | -0.60% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0314 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003923 | -0.53% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0188 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004995 | -0.52% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2384 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005529 | -0.55% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0843 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006204 | -0.74% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1104 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007061 | -1.42% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1257 | ✓ | 1.00 |