DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s6

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

131

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

56.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1593

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0323

actual +0.0604

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.370931	-3.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.381668	-4.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.382391	-4.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.368018	-3.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.386725	-4.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.372288	-3.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.390963	-4.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.396485	-4.78%	0.386075	-7.28%	0.0457	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.421314	-6.55%	0.398745	-11.56%	0.0523	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.414115	-6.05%	0.39882	-9.52%	0.0393	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.460206	-7.28%	0.38187	-23.06%	0.1550	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.496139	-7.89%	0.403015	-25.18%	0.1780	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.471832	-8.52%	0.387205	-24.93%	0.1772	✓	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.410578	-5.99%	0.41127	-5.83%	0.0066	✓	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.362261	-3.02%	0.416385	+11.47%	0.1739	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.384126	-5.76%	0.450845	+10.61%	0.2074	✗	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.38634	-6.25%	0.4408	+6.97%	0.2097	✗	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.388323	-6.87%	0.49633	+19.04%	0.2997	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.363911	-5.36%	0.538615	+40.07%	0.4273	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.373317	-5.83%	0.515775	+30.10%	0.3612	✗	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.369596	-6.47%	0.436745	+10.52%	0.2279	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.367107	-5.83%	0.373545	-4.18%	0.0228	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.357491	-6.34%	0.407595	+6.79%	0.0953	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.345736	-6.44%	0.41208	+11.52%	0.1339	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.400835	-7.90%	0.41695	-4.20%	0.0063	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.382004	-7.50%	0.38453	-6.88%	0.0012	✓	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.410254	-7.65%	0.39644	-10.76%	0.0408	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.417017	-8.07%	0.395175	-12.89%	0.0611	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.440969	-9.28%	0.38983	-19.80%	0.1103	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.398927	-8.57%	0.381685	-12.52%	0.0022	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.370397	-8.39%	0.36952	-8.60%	0.0501	✓	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.358848	-8.34%	0.43524	+11.17%	0.1314	✗	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.39564	-11.39%	0.412955	-7.51%	0.0153	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.269783	-8.61%	0.44425	+50.50%	0.4391	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.235402	-7.72%	0.45364	+77.84%	0.5112	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.222584	-8.99%	0.48606	+98.74%	0.6327	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.138784	+1.27%	0.436315	+218.36%	0.9668	✓	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.14145	+0.33%	0.4043	+186.77%	0.9092	✓	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.14401	+0.31%	0.391515	+172.72%	0.9228	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149921	+0.00%	0.446505	+197.83%	1.0216	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.148531	+0.02%	0.29519	+98.77%	0.6229	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147613	-0.06%	0.25509	+72.70%	0.5504	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.153732	-0.24%	0.24457	+58.71%	0.5019	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.163058	-0.53%	0.13705	-16.40%	0.1233	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.156996	-0.32%	0.140985	-10.49%	0.0914	✓	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.164852	-0.17%	0.14356	-13.07%	0.0755	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.170361	-1.09%	0.14992	-12.96%	0.0825	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.149626	-0.01%	0.148505	-0.76%	0.0384	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.158362	-0.12%	0.147705	-6.85%	0.0160	✗	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.142665	-0.73%	0.154095	+7.23%	0.0581	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.141628	-0.85%	0.16393	+14.76%	0.1259	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.152598	-0.75%	0.1575	+2.44%	0.0232	✗	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.154481	-1.18%	0.16514	+5.64%	0.0240	✗	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.169498	-1.40%	0.17224	+0.20%	0.0058	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.166456	-1.76%	0.14964	-11.69%	0.1317	✓	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.173099	-1.92%	0.15856	-10.16%	0.1008	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163053	-2.31%	0.14371	-13.90%	0.1030	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.144956	-2.08%	0.14284	-3.51%	0.0004	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.157165	-4.06%	0.153755	-6.14%	0.0165	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.127869	-2.46%	0.15632	+19.25%	0.2017	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.111393	-1.72%	0.1719	+51.67%	0.4198	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.116038	-2.39%	0.16944	+42.53%	0.3842	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.096728	-1.77%	0.17649	+79.22%	0.5388	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.096091	-2.63%	0.166915	+69.13%	0.4570	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.090993	-2.66%	0.14804	+58.37%	0.3467	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.092805	-3.09%	0.163815	+71.06%	0.4208	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.098143	-5.18%	0.13109	+26.64%	0.1122	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.090767	-2.38%	0.11334	+21.90%	0.0538	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.090626	-2.28%	0.11888	+28.19%	0.0887	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.092688	-2.41%	0.098475	+3.68%	0.0567	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.096023	-2.65%	0.09869	+0.05%	0.0469	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.095153	-2.54%	0.093475	-4.26%	0.0328	✓	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.091341	-2.17%	0.095765	+2.57%	0.0399	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.094708	-2.43%	0.10351	+6.63%	0.1150	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.094972	-2.45%	0.092975	-4.50%	0.0032	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.094561	-2.40%	0.09274	-4.28%	0.0054	✓	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.095338	-2.52%	0.09498	-2.89%	0.0073	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.098111	-2.74%	0.09864	-2.22%	0.0209	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.098851	-2.77%	0.097635	-3.97%	0.0055	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.095059	-2.16%	0.093365	-3.91%	0.0238	✓	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.097518	-2.19%	0.09707	-2.64%	0.0221	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.103076	-2.53%	0.09736	-7.94%	0.0863	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.111667	-4.30%	0.096885	-16.97%	0.1704	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.093444	-1.20%	0.097805	+3.42%	0.0536	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.095648	-1.07%	0.100875	+4.34%	0.0404	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.10163	-1.48%	0.10167	-1.44%	0.0033	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.104114	-1.63%	0.09716	-8.20%	0.0649	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.112161	-2.11%	0.0997	-12.98%	0.0857	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.111306	-2.08%	0.105755	-6.97%	0.0238	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.112579	-2.09%	0.116685	+1.48%	0.0584	✗	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.116383	-2.29%	0.094575	-20.60%	0.2018	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.118705	-2.38%	0.09668	-20.49%	0.1675	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.117114	-2.36%	0.10316	-13.99%	0.0809	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.120769	-2.38%	0.105835	-14.45%	0.1041	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.120219	-2.32%	0.114575	-6.90%	0.0602	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.123135	-2.35%	0.113675	-9.85%	0.0707	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.126877	-2.35%	0.11498	-11.50%	0.1021	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.131978	-2.44%	0.119115	-11.95%	0.1274	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.141255	-3.15%	0.121595	-16.63%	0.1752	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.147581	-4.91%	0.11994	-22.72%	0.2354	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.114714	-1.87%	0.123715	+5.83%	0.0432	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.12079	-2.06%	0.12307	-0.21%	0.0092	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.121434	-2.08%	0.1261	+1.68%	0.0273	✗	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.115177	-2.16%	0.129925	+10.37%	0.1229	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.112306	-1.80%	0.135285	+18.29%	0.1801	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.107274	-1.63%	0.145845	+33.74%	0.2829	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.1086	-1.75%	0.1552	+40.40%	0.3411	✗	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.111553	-1.85%	0.116895	+2.86%	0.0633	✗	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.110206	-1.76%	0.12333	+9.94%	0.1110	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.105813	-1.72%	0.12402	+15.19%	0.1524	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.108205	-1.91%	0.11772	+6.72%	0.0687	✗	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.10993	-1.94%	0.11437	+2.02%	0.0216	✗	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.104951	-2.21%	0.10905	+1.61%	0.0146	✓	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.110582	-2.67%	0.11054	-2.70%	0.0637	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.103555	-2.01%	0.11365	+7.54%	0.0365	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.099244	-2.39%	0.11218	+10.34%	0.0626	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.086376	-1.08%	0.10767	+23.31%	0.1740	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082181	-0.94%	0.11031	+32.97%	0.2533	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082272	-0.92%	0.112105	+35.00%	0.2800	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.081823	-1.15%	0.10732	+29.65%	0.2882	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.084825	-1.55%	0.11361	+31.86%	0.3602	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.085708	-1.79%	0.10568	+21.09%	0.2705	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.089091	-1.88%	0.10167	+11.98%	0.1934	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.096281	-2.29%	0.08732	-11.38%	0.0286	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.092991	-2.25%	0.08296	-12.79%	0.0579	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.091926	-2.28%	0.08304	-11.73%	0.0498	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.095285	-2.69%	0.082775	-15.47%	0.0855	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.097376	-3.04%	0.08616	-14.21%	0.0760	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.098788	-3.15%	0.087275	-14.44%	0.0882	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.097612	-3.23%	0.090795	-9.99%	0.0341	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.097547	-3.20%	0.098535	-2.22%	0.0133	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.098856	-3.24%	0.09513	-6.89%	0.0374	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.100727	-3.46%	0.09407	-9.84%	0.0575	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.095733	-2.91%	0.09792	-0.69%	0.0251	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.101633	-3.26%	0.10043	-4.41%	0.0737	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.106439	-4.45%	0.102	-8.43%	0.0923	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.100042	-3.48%	0.10087	-2.68%	0.0290	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.089976	-1.70%	0.10077	+10.10%	0.0561	✗	1.00