DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s6

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

137

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

59.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0536

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0107

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.382903	-0.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.395027	-0.93%	0.386075	-3.18%	0.0187	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.395223	-0.90%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0103	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.379348	-0.66%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0530	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.399655	-0.83%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0563	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.384641	-0.66%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0487	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.407229	-0.98%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0399	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.412719	-0.88%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0130	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.443975	-1.52%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0383	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.435313	-1.24%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0120	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.487376	-1.80%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0638	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.525448	-2.44%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0718	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.498903	-3.27%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0695	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.427588	-2.10%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1713	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.371369	-0.58%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1942	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.401477	-1.50%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0283	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.404979	-1.72%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0104	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.408271	-2.08%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0237	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.379245	-1.37%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0615	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.390137	-1.59%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0190	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.387339	-1.98%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0298	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.383335	-1.67%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0059	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.374577	-1.86%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0415	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.363409	-1.65%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0457	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.423225	-2.76%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1191	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.403622	-2.26%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0747	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.433268	-2.47%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0532	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.440256	-2.95%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0137	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.46473	-4.39%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0243	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.419327	-3.89%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1774	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.388483	-3.91%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1226	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.376362	-3.87%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0286	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.414879	-7.08%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0566	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.281422	-4.66%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4548	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.244682	-4.08%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.1043	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.231095	-5.51%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0949	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.137588	+0.39%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5652	✓	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.141101	+0.08%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0173	✓	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.143739	+0.12%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0442	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149956	+0.02%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0352	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.148508	+0.00%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0085	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147695	-0.01%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0065	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.153806	-0.19%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0098	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.163318	-0.37%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0553	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.157141	-0.23%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0536	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.164618	-0.32%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0224	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.170419	-1.06%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0402	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.149217	-0.28%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1406	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.157434	-0.71%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0225	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143178	-0.37%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0267	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142291	-0.38%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0117	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.153022	-0.48%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0501	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.155452	-0.56%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0255	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.170387	-0.88%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0783	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.167558	-1.11%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0201	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.173525	-1.68%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0091	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.16388	-1.82%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0575	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.146321	-1.16%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1251	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.159305	-2.75%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0674	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129561	-1.17%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2194	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112651	-0.61%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1436	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.117217	-1.40%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0188	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.09811	-0.37%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1457	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.09813	-0.57%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0343	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.092999	-0.51%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0096	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.09505	-0.75%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0190	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.101194	-2.24%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0766	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092549	-0.46%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1144	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092358	-0.41%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0061	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.09458	-0.42%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0137	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.098142	-0.51%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0329	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.097119	-0.53%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0171	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.092971	-0.42%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0540	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096543	-0.54%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0214	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.096845	-0.53%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0031	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.096423	-0.48%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0095	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.09732	-0.50%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0126	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.100312	-0.56%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0210	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.101046	-0.61%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0089	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096781	-0.39%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0417	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099279	-0.42%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0211	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.105054	-0.66%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0625	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.114263	-2.08%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0765	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094385	-0.20%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2459	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096475	-0.21%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0348	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102797	-0.35%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0622	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.1054	-0.41%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0243	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.113852	-0.63%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0444	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.113007	-0.59%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0045	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.114341	-0.56%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0096	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.11835	-0.64%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0120	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120781	-0.67%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0038	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.119185	-0.63%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0273	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.122922	-0.64%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0480	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122358	-0.58%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0013	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125346	-0.60%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0162	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.129158	-0.59%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0413	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.134407	-0.65%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0363	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.144069	-1.22%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0451	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.150848	-2.80%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0287	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116422	-0.40%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2575	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.12264	-0.56%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0328	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.123286	-0.59%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0007	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.11691	-0.69%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0627	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113839	-0.46%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0238	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108668	-0.35%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0418	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.110102	-0.40%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0010	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.113137	-0.45%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0168	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.111737	-0.39%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0130	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.107276	-0.37%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0401	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.10977	-0.49%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0249	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111539	-0.50%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0221	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.10654	-0.73%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0350	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.112471	-1.00%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0664	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.105025	-0.62%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1038	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100704	-0.95%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0379	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.087141	-0.20%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1612	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082865	-0.11%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0535	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082967	-0.09%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0051	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.082667	-0.13%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0257	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085946	-0.25%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0107	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.087005	-0.31%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0109	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090479	-0.35%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0473	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.098031	-0.51%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0612	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.094697	-0.45%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0280	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.093655	-0.44%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0062	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097397	-0.53%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0101	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.099809	-0.62%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101339	-0.65%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.100179	-0.68%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0094	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.100089	-0.68%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0118	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101509	-0.65%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0212	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.103614	-0.70%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0136	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.098117	-0.49%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0276	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.104362	-0.66%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0529	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.109864	-1.37%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0226	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.102796	-0.82%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0841	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.091388	-0.16%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0864	✗	1.00