DCR

Decred · native · gru_s6

token id: #518
symbol: DCR
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-22
predictions: 432

Track record at +1d

assessed

143

of 144 predictions shown

direction hit

54.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0228

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0010

actual -0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	14.773	14.7218	-0.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-20	oos	14.749	14.7171	-0.22%	14.773	+0.16%	0.0060	✗	0.76
2026-10-19	oos	14.512	14.4859	-0.18%	14.749	+1.63%	0.0079	✗	0.76
2026-10-18	oos	14.454	14.4284	-0.18%	14.512	+0.40%	0.0073	✗	0.75
2026-10-17	oos	14.407	14.3898	-0.12%	14.454	+0.33%	0.0013	✓	0.75
2026-10-16	oos	14.749	14.7316	-0.12%	14.407	-2.32%	0.0212	✓	0.74
2026-10-15	oos	15.122	15.1014	-0.14%	14.749	-2.47%	0.0180	✓	0.74
2026-10-14	oos	16.153	16.1118	-0.26%	15.122	-6.38%	0.0685	✓	0.75
2026-10-13	oos	16.365	16.3189	-0.28%	16.153	-1.30%	0.0037	✗	0.75
2026-10-12	oos	16.3325	16.2871	-0.28%	16.365	+0.20%	0.0077	✓	0.76
2026-10-11	oos	16.686	16.6392	-0.28%	16.3325	-2.12%	0.0006	✓	0.82
2026-10-10	oos	16.8915	16.8366	-0.32%	16.686	-1.22%	0.0163	✓	0.79
2026-10-09	oos	17.4845	17.4181	-0.38%	16.8915	-3.39%	0.0342	✓	0.79
2026-10-08	oos	17.3785	17.3147	-0.37%	17.4845	+0.61%	0.0016	✓	0.79
2026-10-07	oos	18.089	18.0106	-0.43%	17.3785	-3.93%	0.0210	✓	0.77
2026-10-06	oos	18.356	18.277	-0.43%	18.089	-1.45%	0.0103	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	18.533	18.4524	-0.43%	18.356	-0.96%	0.0034	✓	0.76
2026-10-04	oos	18.355	18.2765	-0.43%	18.533	+0.97%	0.0207	✗	0.77
2026-10-03	oos	18.2965	18.2277	-0.38%	18.355	+0.32%	0.0091	✓	0.78
2026-10-02	oos	18.255	18.1848	-0.38%	18.2965	+0.23%	0.0039	✗	0.78
2026-10-01	oos	18.171	18.1083	-0.34%	18.255	+0.46%	0.0112	✗	0.77
2026-09-30	oos	18.434	18.3694	-0.35%	18.171	-1.43%	0.0229	✓	0.79
2026-09-29	oos	18.116	18.0591	-0.31%	18.434	+1.76%	0.0213	✗	0.79
2026-09-28	oos	17.8165	17.7657	-0.29%	18.116	+1.68%	0.0178	✗	0.79
2026-09-27	oos	18.519	18.4484	-0.38%	17.8165	-3.79%	0.0253	✓	0.80
2026-09-26	oos	18.273	18.2082	-0.35%	18.519	+1.35%	0.0165	✗	0.80
2026-09-25	oos	17.7	17.6512	-0.28%	18.273	+3.24%	0.0315	✗	0.81
2026-09-24	oos	18.268	18.2092	-0.32%	17.7	-3.11%	0.0256	✓	0.80
2026-09-23	oos	18.275	18.2193	-0.30%	18.268	-0.04%	0.0026	✓	0.80
2026-09-22	oos	18.729	18.6595	-0.37%	18.275	-2.42%	0.0025	✓	0.86
2026-09-21	oos	17.971	17.9258	-0.25%	18.729	+4.22%	0.0474	✗	0.78
2026-09-20	oos	17.302	17.2641	-0.22%	17.971	+3.87%	0.0129	✓	0.82
2026-09-19	oos	17.503	17.4697	-0.19%	17.302	-1.15%	0.0089	✓	0.82
2026-09-18	oos	17.739	17.6978	-0.23%	17.503	-1.33%	0.0147	✓	0.83
2026-09-17	oos	16.852	16.8308	-0.13%	17.739	+5.26%	0.0046	✗	0.83
2026-09-16	oos	15.686	15.6993	+0.08%	16.852	+7.43%	0.0686	✓	0.83
2026-09-15	oos	14.752	14.7914	+0.27%	15.686	+6.33%	0.0525	✓	0.85
2026-09-14	oos	16.692	16.6895	-0.01%	14.752	-11.62%	0.0982	✓	0.75
2026-09-13	oos	16.3315	16.3356	+0.03%	16.692	+2.21%	0.0083	✓	0.75
2026-09-12	oos	16.0585	16.0706	+0.08%	16.3315	+1.70%	0.0206	✓	0.75
2026-09-11	oos	15.873	15.8923	+0.12%	16.0585	+1.17%	0.0099	✓	0.77
2026-09-10	oos	15.558	15.586	+0.18%	15.873	+2.02%	0.0115	✓	0.77
2026-09-09	oos	16.4795	16.5096	+0.18%	15.558	-5.59%	0.0427	✗	0.74
2026-09-08	oos	17.3585	17.3339	-0.14%	16.4795	-5.06%	0.0490	✓	0.73
2026-09-07	oos	15.789	15.8224	+0.21%	17.3585	+9.94%	0.0989	✓	0.77
2026-09-06	oos	16.599	16.609	+0.06%	15.789	-4.88%	0.0389	✗	0.75
2026-09-05	oos	15.892	15.8704	-0.14%	16.599	+4.45%	0.0401	✗	0.75
2026-09-04	oos	15.5575	15.5534	-0.03%	15.892	+2.15%	0.0201	✗	0.72
2026-09-03	oos	14.294	14.3214	+0.19%	15.5575	+8.84%	0.0983	✓	0.79
2026-09-02	oos	13.9475	13.9608	+0.10%	14.294	+2.48%	0.0200	✗	0.87
2026-09-01	oos	14.385	14.3931	+0.06%	13.9475	-3.04%	0.0304	✗	0.89
2026-08-31	oos	14.5445	14.5405	-0.03%	14.385	-1.10%	0.0021	✗	0.86
2026-08-30	oos	14.067	14.0793	+0.09%	14.5445	+3.39%	0.0227	✓	0.85
2026-08-29	oos	14.2525	14.264	+0.08%	14.067	-1.30%	0.0077	✗	0.85
2026-08-28	oos	14.129	14.1314	+0.02%	14.2525	+0.87%	0.0043	✓	0.85
2026-08-27	oos	13.932	13.9506	+0.13%	14.129	+1.41%	0.0398	✓	0.88
2026-08-26	oos	13.851	13.8659	+0.11%	13.932	+0.58%	0.0091	✗	0.88
2026-08-25	oos	13.665	13.682	+0.12%	13.851	+1.36%	0.0068	✓	0.87
2026-08-24	oos	13.851	13.8694	+0.13%	13.665	-1.34%	0.0099	✗	0.87
2026-08-23	oos	14.251	14.2558	+0.03%	13.851	-2.81%	0.0429	✗	0.88
2026-08-22	oos	13.985	13.9769	-0.06%	14.251	+1.90%	0.0117	✗	0.88
2026-08-21	oos	13.0055	13.0269	+0.16%	13.985	+7.53%	0.0859	✓	0.92
2026-08-20	oos	11.955	11.9589	+0.03%	13.0055	+8.79%	0.0233	✓	0.86
2026-08-19	oos	11.9285	11.9126	-0.13%	11.955	+0.22%	0.0448	✓	0.93
2026-08-18	oos	11.7125	11.6858	-0.23%	11.9285	+1.84%	0.0508	✓	1.04
2026-08-17	oos	12.0775	12.0483	-0.24%	11.7125	-3.02%	0.0316	✓	1.04
2026-08-16	oos	11.9685	11.9427	-0.22%	12.0775	+0.91%	0.0160	✓	1.06
2026-08-15	oos	12.037	12.0137	-0.19%	11.9685	-0.57%	0.0007	✓	1.06
2026-08-14	oos	11.97	11.9496	-0.17%	12.037	+0.56%	0.0066	✗	1.06
2026-08-13	oos	12.14	12.1206	-0.16%	11.97	-1.40%	0.0050	✓	1.06
2026-08-12	oos	12.246	12.224	-0.18%	12.14	-0.87%	0.0071	✓	1.06
2026-08-11	oos	12.985	12.9532	-0.24%	12.246	-5.69%	0.0541	✓	1.06
2026-08-10	oos	12.7835	12.7534	-0.24%	12.985	+1.58%	0.0243	✗	1.06
2026-08-09	oos	12.952	12.9171	-0.27%	12.7835	-1.30%	0.0051	✗	1.06
2026-08-08	oos	12.798	12.7658	-0.25%	12.952	+1.20%	0.0155	✗	1.06
2026-08-07	oos	12.7525	12.7275	-0.20%	12.798	+0.36%	0.0052	✗	1.06
2026-08-06	oos	12.51	12.4884	-0.17%	12.7525	+1.94%	0.0107	✗	1.06
2026-08-05	oos	12.977	12.9461	-0.24%	12.51	-3.60%	0.0288	✓	1.05
2026-08-04	oos	13.3845	13.3451	-0.29%	12.977	-3.04%	0.0371	✓	1.07
2026-08-03	oos	13.2705	13.2336	-0.28%	13.3845	+0.86%	0.0015	✓	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	13.2305	13.1958	-0.26%	13.2705	+0.30%	0.0062	✗	1.07
2026-08-01	oos	13.1025	13.0688	-0.26%	13.2305	+0.98%	0.0002	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	13.158	13.1123	-0.35%	13.1025	-0.42%	0.0003	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	13.606	13.5161	-0.66%	13.158	-3.29%	0.0049	✓	1.07
2026-07-29	oos	11.6495	11.6234	-0.22%	13.606	+16.79%	0.1449	✗	0.98
2026-07-28	oos	11.581	11.5492	-0.27%	11.6495	+0.59%	0.0079	✗	0.98
2026-07-27	oos	11.183	11.1615	-0.19%	11.581	+3.56%	0.0346	✗	0.97
2026-07-26	oos	11.685	11.6657	-0.16%	11.183	-4.30%	0.0178	✓	0.96
2026-07-25	oos	11.5805	11.5696	-0.09%	11.685	+0.90%	0.0056	✓	0.96
2026-07-24	oos	11.5935	11.5864	-0.06%	11.5805	-0.11%	0.0037	✓	0.96
2026-07-23	oos	11.9935	11.9832	-0.09%	11.5935	-3.34%	0.0188	✓	0.95
2026-07-22	oos	12.47	12.4595	-0.08%	11.9935	-3.82%	0.0232	✓	0.94
2026-07-21	oos	12.5985	12.5905	-0.06%	12.47	-1.02%	0.0035	✓	0.94
2026-07-20	oos	12.729	12.7198	-0.07%	12.5985	-1.03%	0.0287	✓	0.97
2026-07-19	oos	12.72	12.714	-0.05%	12.729	+0.07%	0.0067	✓	0.97
2026-07-18	oos	12.716	12.7099	-0.05%	12.72	+0.03%	0.0025	✗	0.97
2026-07-17	oos	12.584	12.5815	-0.02%	12.716	+1.05%	0.0030	✓	0.97
2026-07-16	oos	13.336	13.3215	-0.11%	12.584	-5.64%	0.0589	✓	0.98
2026-07-15	oos	13.502	13.4715	-0.23%	13.336	-1.23%	0.0044	✗	0.98
2026-07-14	oos	13.764	13.7099	-0.39%	13.502	-1.90%	0.0112	✓	0.98
2026-07-13	oos	12.513	12.4637	-0.39%	13.764	+10.00%	0.0623	✗	0.86
2026-07-12	oos	12.1975	12.1746	-0.19%	12.513	+2.59%	0.0487	✗	0.91
2026-07-11	oos	11.253	11.2577	+0.04%	12.1975	+8.39%	0.0806	✓	0.90
2026-07-10	oos	11.16	11.1649	+0.04%	11.253	+0.83%	0.0129	✓	0.90
2026-07-09	oos	11.012	11.019	+0.06%	11.16	+1.34%	0.0007	✗	0.90
2026-07-08	oos	10.971	10.9779	+0.06%	11.012	+0.37%	0.0103	✗	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	11.012	11.0158	+0.03%	10.971	-0.37%	0.0117	✓	0.91
2026-07-06	oos	11.216	11.2163	+0.00%	11.012	-1.82%	0.0087	✗	0.91
2026-07-05	oos	11.145	11.1465	+0.01%	11.216	+0.64%	0.0003	✓	0.91
2026-07-04	oos	11.2845	11.2871	+0.02%	11.145	-1.24%	0.0199	✗	0.92
2026-07-03	oos	11.4835	11.4853	+0.02%	11.2845	-1.73%	0.0260	✗	0.93
2026-07-02	oos	11.1825	11.1858	+0.03%	11.4835	+2.69%	0.0110	✓	0.91
2026-07-01	oos	10.94	10.9456	+0.05%	11.1825	+2.22%	0.0013	✗	0.90
2026-06-30	oos	10.729	10.7382	+0.09%	10.94	+1.97%	0.0032	✗	0.90
2026-06-29	oos	11.281	11.2845	+0.03%	10.729	-4.89%	0.0264	✗	0.87
2026-06-28	oos	11.106	11.1123	+0.06%	11.281	+1.58%	0.0052	✓	0.86
2026-06-27	oos	11.4885	11.4911	+0.02%	11.106	-3.33%	0.0275	✗	0.86
2026-06-26	oos	11.197	11.2007	+0.03%	11.4885	+2.60%	0.0263	✓	0.85
2026-06-25	oos	10.96	10.9595	-0.00%	11.197	+2.16%	0.0173	✗	0.83
2026-06-24	oos	12.179	12.1506	-0.23%	10.96	-10.01%	0.0871	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	11.177	11.1755	-0.01%	12.179	+8.96%	0.1104	✗	0.91
2026-06-22	oos	11.5125	11.5036	-0.08%	11.177	-2.91%	0.0102	✓	0.90
2026-06-21	oos	11.433	11.4256	-0.06%	11.5125	+0.70%	0.0025	✓	0.90
2026-06-20	oos	11.873	11.858	-0.13%	11.433	-3.71%	0.0210	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	11.617	11.6048	-0.10%	11.873	+2.20%	0.0111	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	11.479	11.4703	-0.08%	11.617	+1.20%	0.0033	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	12.04	12.0208	-0.16%	11.479	-4.66%	0.0215	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	12.39	12.3639	-0.21%	12.04	-2.82%	0.0085	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	12.67	12.6347	-0.28%	12.39	-2.21%	0.0095	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	12.812	12.7695	-0.33%	12.67	-1.11%	0.0165	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	12.242	12.213	-0.24%	12.812	+4.66%	0.0283	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	12.032	12.016	-0.13%	12.242	+1.75%	0.0047	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	12.172	12.1628	-0.08%	12.032	-1.15%	0.0104	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	11.832	11.8553	+0.20%	12.172	+2.87%	0.0075	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	11.962	11.9975	+0.30%	11.832	-1.09%	0.0100	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	12.271	12.3036	+0.27%	11.962	-2.52%	0.0061	✗	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	12.382	12.4259	+0.35%	12.271	-0.90%	0.0088	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	12.29	12.3874	+0.79%	12.382	+0.75%	0.0399	✗	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	12.102	12.2174	+0.95%	12.29	+1.55%	0.0089	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	13.152	13.22	+0.52%	12.102	-7.98%	0.0439	✗	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	14.506	14.5567	+0.35%	13.152	-9.33%	0.0978	✗	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	14.746	14.7451	-0.01%	14.506	-1.63%	0.0237	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	15.614	15.5424	-0.46%	14.746	-5.56%	0.0149	✗	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	16.0015	15.9104	-0.57%	15.614	-2.42%	0.0124	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.