BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s6

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

56.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1388

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0259

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050314	-1.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049623	-1.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046985	-0.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048299	-1.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052133	-1.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054734	-2.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044376	-0.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043571	-0.56%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1423	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047203	-1.38%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0617	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.053921	-1.44%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1307	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065344	-1.34%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2782	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067109	-1.38%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2223	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.06748	-1.53%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1778	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064961	-1.52%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3797	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066682	-1.20%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.4063	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066803	-0.49%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.3112	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062132	-0.06%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0911	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062619	+0.33%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0826	✓	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061943	+0.12%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1114	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.063076	+0.38%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1016	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.06542	+0.30%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0381	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066247	+0.13%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0212	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.06707	+0.25%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0128	✗	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067453	+0.39%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.1020	✗	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.071176	+0.30%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1442	✗	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071403	+0.38%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1454	✗	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069593	+0.55%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.1046	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.067463	+0.86%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0365	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.064455	+1.26%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0311	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069757	+1.21%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0248	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.069167	+1.45%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0035	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066573	+0.65%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0377	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.066067	+0.85%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0486	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.06569	+0.78%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0281	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062642	+0.29%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0086	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061712	+0.48%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0281	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063357	+0.25%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0314	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.063026	+0.61%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0366	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.062044	+0.35%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0411	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064149	+0.19%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0004	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064459	+0.33%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0094	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.061055	+0.77%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0237	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062462	+0.86%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0060	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067824	+0.23%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0516	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067456	+0.02%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0679	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067276	-0.19%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0612	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068411	-0.50%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0487	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068403	-0.37%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0448	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069834	+0.29%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1086	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066092	-1.75%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0717	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.066188	-1.89%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0148	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.067522	-1.25%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0041	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.066652	-1.75%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0069	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.069872	-1.03%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0265	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.070815	-0.93%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0432	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.07376	+0.68%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0640	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072341	+0.18%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0617	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068822	-0.27%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0127	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072445	+0.24%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0552	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073245	-0.28%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0762	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074081	-0.48%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0564	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.091037	+0.12%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2390	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082529	-1.96%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1549	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.077317	-4.25%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1299	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.074624	-5.51%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.1761	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.073151	-5.51%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1197	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.073692	-5.51%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1210	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.075085	-5.87%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1194	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.071275	-5.08%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.1211	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.071446	-5.21%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0858	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.072509	-5.27%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0486	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.072656	-5.22%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0720	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.073281	-5.25%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0486	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.070608	-4.65%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.1219	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.073775	-4.45%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0991	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.074458	-4.41%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0299	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.08009	-4.93%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0506	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.076834	-4.57%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0105	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.073671	-3.96%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0457	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.073602	-3.76%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0445	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.073225	-3.49%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0032	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.072843	-3.13%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0364	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.076426	-3.31%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0020	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.077083	-3.06%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0936	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.077952	-2.80%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0251	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.07735	-2.35%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0102	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077578	-2.19%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0120	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.084981	-2.37%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.0976	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.082578	-2.37%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0812	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.082363	-2.43%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0310	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074274	-2.18%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0711	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.08224	-2.39%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0062	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.083348	-2.41%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0272	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.083855	-2.31%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0447	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088183	-2.29%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0183	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.089973	-2.33%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0558	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.089525	-2.39%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0612	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089013	-2.54%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1779	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087109	-2.64%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0478	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.084955	-2.77%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0137	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.092104	-2.77%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1185	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.09933	-2.79%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1104	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.095776	-2.57%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0557	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.101041	-2.81%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0933	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.107257	-3.74%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1700	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.085021	-2.34%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0171	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.083153	-2.22%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0281	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.092285	-2.70%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0480	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.089527	-3.07%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1300	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.089001	-3.28%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0897	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.09166	-3.48%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.1034	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.09739	-3.79%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.1097	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.122077	-6.48%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3799	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.095371	-4.82%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.1867	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.078796	-3.01%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1175	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.078225	-3.01%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1079	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073152	-2.30%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1840	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.06595	-1.58%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3281	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.069913	-1.66%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3437	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.081456	-2.35%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4853	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.096115	-3.39%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0887	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.091714	-2.69%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0762	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.091076	-2.87%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0764	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.08625	-2.49%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0881	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.094488	-3.42%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2979	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.092012	-3.48%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2162	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.076212	-2.03%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1447	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.074519	-2.12%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3358	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.076428	-2.73%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2455	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.070211	-1.87%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3268	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.067956	-1.66%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2667	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073107	-2.42%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2924	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.071356	-2.41%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.3006	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062287	-0.91%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1816	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.06384	-1.25%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1235	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063716	-1.58%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1663	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.06845	-2.40%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0121	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.065683	-1.08%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0038	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062064	-0.12%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1550	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062446	-0.93%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1612	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.068725	-2.03%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0532	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.063898	-1.67%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0954	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.068822	-3.41%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0672	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.068776	-3.61%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1882	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.073401	-4.64%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.1127	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.072597	-4.92%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0476	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060093	-1.31%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2112	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061252	-1.55%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3079	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061252	-1.48%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2148	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.06696	-2.61%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1519	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.067091	-2.06%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1123	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.070463	-2.20%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1316	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070077	-1.44%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1170	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.080518	-4.15%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2330	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.074897	-2.29%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1488	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070472	-0.42%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1148	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071452	-0.05%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0418	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070809	+0.52%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0283	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075673	-0.15%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0335	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.075124	+0.29%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0147	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.084798	-2.44%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0179	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.086941	-2.13%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1110	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.10482	-5.16%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3764	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.099799	-4.71%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3065	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.093845	-4.49%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2560	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.092314	-4.11%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.1814	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.087137	-3.27%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1443	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.088439	-3.82%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0238	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.08473	-3.77%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0635	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.086776	-4.14%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2451	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.090274	-4.69%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1337	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.09376	-5.25%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0160	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.109369	-6.03%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1423	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.103552	-6.02%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1539	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.105156	-6.42%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1647	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.121126	-6.75%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.3686	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.129037	-6.81%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4129	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.127216	-7.12%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3266	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.1255	-6.21%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2361	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.125775	-6.61%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.0907	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.11524	-6.07%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0548	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.126464	-6.89%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.0926	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.108504	-5.44%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.2118	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.119658	-8.41%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1464	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.104634	-8.18%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2497	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.08178	-5.13%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4287	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.086787	-4.86%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.4144	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.113557	-7.86%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0726	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.143862	-13.41%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.0982	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.080994	-5.31%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.3042	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.072055	-4.11%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5663	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.06343	-3.46%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5670	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.057298	-3.71%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3660	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.052954	-3.17%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5082	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.052132	-3.20%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8058	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.051772	-3.39%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1202	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.059888	-3.31%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.3050	✗	1.00