BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s6

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

168

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

58.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2653

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0693

actual -0.0915

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.053361	-1.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.05356	-1.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049756	-0.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046901	-0.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048137	-1.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052388	-1.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055491	-0.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044691	+0.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043809	-0.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047722	-0.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054553	-0.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065976	-0.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067201	-1.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067012	-2.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064252	-2.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.06558	-2.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065455	-2.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.060706	-2.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061245	-1.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060121	-2.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.061432	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.063665	-2.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064465	-2.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065564	-2.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066121	-1.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069914	-1.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070379	-1.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068405	-1.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066595	-0.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063894	+0.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069324	+0.58%	0.054285	-21.24%	0.2314	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068882	+1.03%	0.054325	-20.32%	0.2166	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.06611	-0.05%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2910	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065787	+0.42%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3334	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065345	+0.25%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2998	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062201	-0.41%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1955	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061348	-0.12%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1303	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062977	-0.35%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3784	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062692	+0.07%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3757	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061801	-0.05%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2883	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064056	+0.04%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1818	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064736	+0.76%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0127	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.061447	+1.42%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.0700	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.063231	+2.10%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0597	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.068533	+1.28%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0589	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.068612	+1.74%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0432	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.068783	+2.04%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0567	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.070196	+2.10%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1595	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.070627	+2.87%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1705	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.072488	+4.10%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1817	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.068745	+2.19%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.1371	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.068975	+2.24%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.1064	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.07073	+3.44%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0933	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.069824	+2.92%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0825	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.072575	+2.80%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.1105	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.073703	+3.11%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0807	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.077044	+5.17%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.1059	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.075822	+4.99%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.1222	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.072368	+4.87%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.1146	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.075554	+4.54%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.2037	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.075534	+2.84%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1474	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.075867	+1.92%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1704	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.092148	+1.34%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3479	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082657	-1.80%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2728	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.077175	-4.42%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2415	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.072856	-7.75%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2377	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.072033	-6.96%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2476	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.072916	-6.50%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2452	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.075014	-5.96%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2989	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.071232	-5.14%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2529	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.072012	-4.46%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.2270	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.073246	-4.30%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2619	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.073399	-4.25%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.3096	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.073963	-4.37%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.3238	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.070511	-4.79%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1772	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.073342	-5.02%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.2241	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.074043	-4.94%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2468	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.079119	-6.08%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.3069	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.076021	-5.58%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2631	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.073016	-4.82%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.2199	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.07299	-4.56%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.2228	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.072612	-4.29%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.2094	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.072161	-4.03%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.2003	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.07591	-3.96%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2501	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.075958	-4.47%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.2018	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.077325	-3.58%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.2079	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.076946	-2.86%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1885	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077264	-2.59%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.2010	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.083679	-3.86%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2941	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.081682	-3.43%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.2290	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.081288	-3.70%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.2004	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.073466	-3.24%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0849	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.080244	-4.76%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0293	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.081212	-4.92%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0181	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.082002	-4.47%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0437	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.086159	-4.53%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0871	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.087773	-4.72%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1217	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.087186	-4.94%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0981	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.086583	-5.20%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0707	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.084368	-5.70%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0977	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.082082	-6.06%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0653	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.088857	-6.20%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1682	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.095492	-6.55%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2164	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.092035	-6.38%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1763	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.096958	-6.74%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2800	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.103275	-7.31%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.3176	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.081043	-6.91%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0759	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.078976	-7.13%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0523	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.087762	-7.47%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0937	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.08526	-7.69%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1122	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.084774	-7.87%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1084	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.087377	-7.99%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1550	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.093168	-7.96%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2332	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.117371	-10.08%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.4478	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.091487	-8.70%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2323	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.074281	-8.57%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0105	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.073814	-8.48%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0088	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.068373	-8.68%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0945	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.06127	-8.57%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2755	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.065072	-8.47%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1957	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.075961	-8.94%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0651	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.08968	-9.86%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.1925	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.084582	-10.25%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0281	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.083996	-10.42%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0206	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.079209	-10.45%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0685	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.087016	-11.06%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0212	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.084341	-11.53%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0640	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.069611	-10.52%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2843	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.068324	-10.26%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.3191	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.070599	-10.15%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2608	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.064212	-10.26%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.3188	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.061739	-10.65%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4610	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.066259	-11.56%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.4300	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.064769	-11.42%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.4139	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.056172	-10.64%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5791	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.057229	-11.48%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.6459	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.056955	-12.02%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.4358	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.060856	-13.22%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.3343	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.057856	-12.87%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.4529	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.054404	-12.45%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4954	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.054584	-13.40%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.5323	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.0604	-13.90%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.4734	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.056238	-13.45%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.6750	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.061155	-14.17%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.9392	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.060863	-14.70%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.7553	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.065438	-14.99%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.4419	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.065397	-14.35%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.4413	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.053264	-12.52%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5762	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.054524	-12.36%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4538	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.054847	-11.79%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5483	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.060727	-11.68%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5832	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.060715	-11.37%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.7253	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.063617	-11.70%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5973	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.062635	-11.91%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.6014	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.074106	-11.78%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3407	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.068542	-10.58%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5317	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.063919	-9.68%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5686	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.064978	-9.11%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3303	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.064714	-8.13%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3060	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.070151	-7.44%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2489	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.070134	-6.38%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1796	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.080747	-7.10%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0147	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.082325	-7.32%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0496	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.099202	-10.24%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2230	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.095991	-8.34%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2950	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.091708	-6.67%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.2022	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.089176	-7.37%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1992	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.084292	-6.43%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0692	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.086138	-6.33%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.1281	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.083927	-4.68%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.1257	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.085833	-5.18%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1643	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.088351	-6.72%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0900	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.090235	-8.82%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.2162	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.10306	-11.45%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3107	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.097966	-11.09%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2808	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.097431	-13.29%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2139	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.109637	-15.59%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.3399	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.116807	-15.64%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6140	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.118384	-13.57%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6031	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.118444	-11.48%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6076	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.117205	-12.97%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5282	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.108528	-11.54%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.4539	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.120125	-11.56%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.4901	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.103474	-9.82%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3392	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.111841	-14.40%	0.084	-35.71%	0.3018	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.097653	-14.31%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.2632	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.074485	-13.59%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.0903	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.081399	-10.77%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.1456	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.109064	-11.51%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.4412	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.129978	-21.77%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.5778	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.077008	-9.97%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.0825	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.068047	-9.45%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1558	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.060412	-8.05%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3225	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.054552	-8.32%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5772	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.050692	-7.30%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6139	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.050115	-6.94%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5546	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.050174	-6.37%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5353	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.058039	-6.30%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3191	✗	1.00