BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s6

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

58.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0598

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0076

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050704	-0.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050001	-0.25%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0195	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047297	-0.14%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0469	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048754	-0.17%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0272	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.05285	-0.38%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0854	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055633	-0.66%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0463	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.04461	+0.02%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2343	✓	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043833	+0.04%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0112	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047772	-0.19%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0708	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054561	-0.27%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1456	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065971	-0.40%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1721	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067763	-0.42%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0291	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068209	-0.46%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0054	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065656	-0.47%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0356	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067161	-0.49%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0053	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066863	-0.40%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0299	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062027	-0.23%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0809	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062316	-0.16%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0046	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061778	-0.15%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0062	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062795	-0.07%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0171	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065158	-0.10%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0330	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066086	-0.11%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0249	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066844	-0.08%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0097	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067153	-0.05%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0054	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.07086	-0.14%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0467	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070999	-0.19%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0008	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069153	-0.09%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0263	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066884	-0.01%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0360	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063718	+0.11%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0485	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068964	+0.06%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0682	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068248	+0.10%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0131	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066145	-0.00%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0122	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065528	+0.03%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0100	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065192	+0.02%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0021	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.06245	-0.02%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0100	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061436	+0.03%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0150	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063175	-0.04%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0311	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062653	+0.01%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0225	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061833	+0.00%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0057	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064001	-0.05%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0319	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064227	-0.03%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0034	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060646	+0.09%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0542	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061969	+0.06%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0137	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.0676	-0.10%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0865	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067346	-0.14%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0090	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067275	-0.19%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0105	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068574	-0.26%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0206	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068504	-0.22%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0025	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069544	-0.12%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0019	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066943	-0.49%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0128	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067114	-0.52%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0030	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.0681	-0.40%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0030	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067495	-0.51%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0068	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070311	-0.41%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0320	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071226	-0.36%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0115	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073205	-0.07%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0079	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072133	-0.11%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0077	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068903	-0.16%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0438	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072216	-0.08%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0426	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073339	-0.15%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0232	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074311	-0.17%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0164	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090665	-0.29%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1897	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083712	-0.55%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0562	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.079958	-0.98%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0269	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078057	-1.16%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0010	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.07655	-1.12%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0295	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077058	-1.19%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0096	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.078655	-1.40%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0070	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074335	-1.01%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0702	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074589	-1.04%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0106	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.075728	-1.06%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0048	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.075868	-1.03%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0100	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.076468	-1.13%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0068	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.07335	-0.95%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0634	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076469	-0.97%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0314	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077149	-0.95%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0007	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083239	-1.19%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0738	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079627	-1.10%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0603	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076036	-0.88%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0510	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.07585	-0.82%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0047	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075286	-0.77%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0161	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.0747	-0.66%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0079	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078407	-0.80%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0412	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.078852	-0.83%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0226	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079581	-0.77%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0092	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078722	-0.62%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0181	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.07886	-0.57%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0029	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086414	-0.72%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0716	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.083997	-0.69%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0272	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083803	-0.73%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0075	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075475	-0.60%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1206	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083651	-0.71%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0879	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084808	-0.70%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0029	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.08526	-0.67%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0075	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089624	-0.69%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0475	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091465	-0.71%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0120	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091084	-0.69%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0000	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090661	-0.74%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0098	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.088789	-0.76%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0384	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.086705	-0.77%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0348	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.093977	-0.79%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1172	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101292	-0.87%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0439	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097551	-0.77%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0470	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.102987	-0.94%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0413	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.109622	-1.61%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0679	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086493	-0.65%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2403	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084564	-0.56%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0433	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094118	-0.77%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0929	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091575	-0.85%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0293	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091191	-0.90%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0057	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094017	-0.99%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0295	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100017	-1.19%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0672	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.125987	-3.48%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2470	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098204	-1.99%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2624	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080673	-0.70%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2471	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079989	-0.82%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0056	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.0745	-0.50%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0862	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066865	-0.22%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1141	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070924	-0.23%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0612	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082999	-0.50%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1376	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098366	-1.13%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1462	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093571	-0.72%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0765	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092994	-0.83%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0051	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087893	-0.63%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0767	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096673	-1.19%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0984	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094146	-1.24%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0308	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077422	-0.48%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2323	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075751	-0.50%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0448	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077936	-0.81%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0133	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.07126	-0.40%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0893	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068867	-0.34%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0193	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074444	-0.64%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0885	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072637	-0.66%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0313	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062767	-0.15%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1237	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064515	-0.21%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0227	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064574	-0.26%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0204	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069779	-0.50%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0717	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066327	-0.11%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0233	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062254	+0.18%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0669	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063042	+0.02%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0248	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069928	-0.32%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1007	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064875	-0.16%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1214	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070755	-0.70%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0146	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070796	-0.78%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0414	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076004	-1.26%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0603	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075131	-1.60%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0182	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060819	-0.12%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2297	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062097	-0.19%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0070	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.06207	-0.17%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0266	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068404	-0.51%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0746	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068276	-0.33%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0030	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071811	-0.33%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0520	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071032	-0.10%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0036	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083064	-1.11%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1316	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076275	-0.49%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0957	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070829	+0.08%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0712	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071622	+0.18%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0100	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070685	+0.35%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0165	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075946	+0.21%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0679	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.075184	+0.37%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0185	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086567	-0.41%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1291	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088585	-0.28%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0335	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.108834	-1.53%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.1979	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103252	-1.41%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0749	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.096747	-1.54%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0823	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095028	-1.29%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0241	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.0893	-0.87%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0723	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091004	-1.03%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0113	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087149	-1.02%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0644	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.089546	-1.08%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0209	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.093598	-1.18%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0418	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.097676	-1.30%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0419	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.114369	-1.74%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1438	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.108454	-1.57%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0672	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.110628	-1.55%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0202	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.127513	-1.83%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1314	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.135665	-2.03%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0361	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.133477	-2.55%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0503	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.130951	-2.14%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0617	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.131583	-2.30%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0037	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.12033	-1.92%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1102	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.131913	-2.88%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0620	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.112557	-1.90%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1869	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.125423	-4.00%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1131	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.10949	-3.92%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1703	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.084925	-1.48%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2668	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.089733	-1.63%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0146	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.118435	-3.91%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2433	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.152655	-8.12%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2394	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083623	-2.24%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6822	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074028	-1.49%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1357	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064895	-1.23%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1502	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058908	-1.00%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0583	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054236	-0.82%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1251	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053417	-0.81%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0222	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053155	-0.81%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0035	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061428	-0.83%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1465	✓	1.00