XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s5

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +7d

assessed

114

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

59.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1829

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0270

actual -0.0468

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004211	-2.33%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004218	-2.16%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004243	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004266	-2.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004202	-2.27%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004409	-2.48%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004428	-2.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004462	-2.60%	0.004312	-5.88%	0.0266	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004228	-2.57%	0.004312	-0.64%	0.0290	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004066	-2.38%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0646	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004013	-2.61%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.0845	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003916	-2.41%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.0923	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003941	-2.54%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1373	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003944	-2.64%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1415	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.00381	-2.77%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.1846	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004038	-2.53%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0697	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004035	-2.08%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0319	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003994	-2.05%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0295	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.00435	-1.85%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0852	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003723	-2.46%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0782	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004873	-2.31%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1893	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004901	-2.31%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2302	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004875	-2.76%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1646	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004163	-2.46%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0022	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004427	-2.52%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0678	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004356	-2.21%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0270	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004519	-2.12%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1672	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004625	-2.18%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0776	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004991	-2.44%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0075	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004355	-1.82%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1366	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004296	-1.33%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0164	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004286	-1.17%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0480	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004282	-2.05%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0537	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004472	-2.00%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0460	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.00469	-2.17%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0211	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005227	-4.07%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0035	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.0043	-1.02%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0496	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003872	+0.92%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1732	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003901	+0.70%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1367	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003715	+1.90%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1763	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003184	+4.19%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3698	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003932	+1.23%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.2076	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.004005	+0.92%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.3075	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004032	+0.56%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0690	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.00487	-0.65%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2467	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004805	-0.61%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2179	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004708	-0.20%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2648	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004537	+0.17%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4020	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004752	+0.17%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2080	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005065	-0.02%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2587	✓	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.004995	-0.41%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2159	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004979	-0.28%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0116	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004657	-0.26%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0391	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005017	-0.58%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0535	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005072	-0.65%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1083	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005158	-0.78%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0783	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005351	-0.63%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0513	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005369	-0.90%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0741	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005178	-1.01%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0406	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005221	-1.04%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1133	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005112	-1.25%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0131	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005014	-1.44%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0227	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004853	-1.49%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0671	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005667	-1.96%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0623	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005621	-2.22%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0473	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005683	-2.34%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.1004	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005751	-2.37%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.1042	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005844	-2.44%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1418	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005849	-2.40%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1595	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005784	-2.23%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1814	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005797	-2.23%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0174	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005932	-2.24%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0406	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006316	-2.45%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0836	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006612	-2.73%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.1164	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006589	-2.84%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0920	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006281	-2.69%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0438	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006729	-3.07%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.1253	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.00685	-3.20%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1428	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007047	-3.74%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1474	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006353	-3.28%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0190	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006174	-3.27%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.0964	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005877	-3.17%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1436	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005768	-3.16%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1144	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005809	-3.34%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.1802	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005775	-3.41%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2031	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005827	-3.36%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2284	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005667	-3.19%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1477	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005921	-3.27%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.0750	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006113	-3.52%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0084	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006084	-3.64%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0232	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006039	-3.79%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0069	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005974	-3.81%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0006	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005899	-3.79%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0219	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006083	-4.31%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0385	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005954	-4.75%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0257	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005551	-4.32%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1342	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005542	-4.46%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1290	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005522	-4.76%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1289	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005728	-5.18%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.0854	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.00577	-5.51%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.0651	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006037	-6.41%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0285	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.00511	-6.07%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1552	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005476	-6.60%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0431	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.0051	-6.98%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.1128	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004645	-7.10%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2254	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005144	-8.10%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1515	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003892	-4.66%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.4115	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003697	-4.31%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.5306	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003106	-4.15%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.5882	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003077	-5.07%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.6420	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002694	-10.20%	0.005483	+82.76%	0.6998	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.00192	-21.39%	0.005	+104.73%	0.9318	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006471	-2.32%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1722	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007061	-1.78%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5853	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006834	-1.42%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6492	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007774	-1.75%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9371	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008632	-1.74%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0462	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008835	-1.75%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1313	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.00901	-1.74%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3465	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009155	-1.70%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3529	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010256	-1.88%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3384	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.