XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s5

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +30d

assessed

91

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

58.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2261

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0535

actual -0.0970

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004087	-5.20%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.00412	-4.45%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004137	-4.68%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004152	-4.88%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004088	-4.91%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004288	-5.16%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004305	-5.26%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004335	-5.38%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.0041	-5.52%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.00394	-5.43%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003884	-5.73%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003782	-5.74%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003799	-6.05%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003797	-6.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003673	-6.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.003863	-6.75%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.003829	-7.07%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003781	-7.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004102	-7.47%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003514	-7.93%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004584	-8.11%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004627	-7.77%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004636	-7.53%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.00394	-7.69%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004195	-7.62%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004112	-7.69%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004263	-7.66%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004384	-7.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004793	-6.31%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004129	-6.92%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.00407	-6.51%	0.004312	-0.97%	0.0500	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004068	-6.19%	0.004312	-0.57%	0.0501	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004084	-6.59%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.0686	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004282	-6.17%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0220	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004523	-5.66%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0460	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005121	-6.03%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.1130	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.00415	-4.47%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.1031	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003708	-3.37%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.2469	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003751	-3.17%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.1585	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003545	-2.76%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.1804	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.002993	-2.04%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.3305	✗	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003791	-2.39%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0730	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003889	-1.99%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0549	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.003955	-1.36%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0346	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004789	-2.28%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.1917	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004743	-1.90%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1242	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004677	-0.86%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1145	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004546	+0.36%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.0941	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004786	+0.89%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.0599	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005132	+1.29%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.2857	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.004992	-0.48%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0264	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004992	-0.01%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0328	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004724	+1.17%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.0752	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005073	+0.53%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.1553	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005151	+0.91%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.1107	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005232	+0.63%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.1416	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005507	+2.27%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.1628	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005485	+1.24%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.1312	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005295	+1.22%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0140	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005362	+1.62%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.1709	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.00522	+0.85%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.1502	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005114	+0.53%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.1286	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.005024	+1.99%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.1290	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005631	-2.58%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.2229	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005513	-4.10%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.1519	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005506	-5.40%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0252	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005567	-5.49%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.2629	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005635	-5.93%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.4022	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005643	-5.83%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.3975	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005577	-5.74%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.4442	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005583	-5.83%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.6231	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005709	-5.91%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.4056	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006082	-6.06%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.4454	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006375	-6.22%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.4811	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006357	-6.26%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.2803	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.00605	-6.26%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.2458	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.00649	-6.52%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.3427	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006602	-6.71%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.4018	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006803	-7.07%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.3834	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.00611	-6.99%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.1920	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005927	-7.13%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.1638	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005636	-7.14%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.1175	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005523	-7.27%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.1548	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005566	-7.38%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.0856	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005543	-7.29%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.0829	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005582	-7.42%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.0684	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005412	-7.55%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.0002	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005651	-7.68%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.0391	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005857	-7.57%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.1050	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005828	-7.70%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.0817	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.00579	-7.77%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.0932	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005722	-7.87%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.1090	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005631	-8.16%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.1346	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005827	-8.33%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.0080	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005692	-8.94%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.0154	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.00524	-9.68%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.1049	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005252	-9.46%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.1138	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005261	-9.27%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.1259	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005483	-9.23%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.0861	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005568	-8.82%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.0550	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.0059	-8.52%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.0292	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.004965	-8.74%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.1825	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005388	-8.10%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.1869	✗	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.00508	-7.35%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.2892	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004628	-7.44%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.3710	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005173	-7.58%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.1943	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003756	-7.98%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.5725	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003558	-7.91%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.6727	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002984	-7.91%	0.00732	+125.94%	0.8881	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003011	-7.11%	0.006568	+102.62%	0.7726	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002806	-6.46%	0.006383	+112.76%	0.8157	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.001583	-35.19%	0.00607	+148.53%	1.3285	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006346	-4.21%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.0840	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.006895	-4.08%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.1842	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006666	-3.84%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.2094	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007624	-3.66%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.2948	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008464	-3.65%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.4397	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008668	-3.60%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.4087	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008844	-3.55%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.4187	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.008991	-3.46%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.4276	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010086	-3.51%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.5238	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.