UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s5

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 192

Track record at +1d

assessed

63

of 64 predictions shown

direction hit

65.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1461

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0066

actual +0.0126

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.28138	0.2789	-0.88%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.281425	0.279056	-0.84%	0.28138	-0.02%	0.0029	✓	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.275195	-0.86%	0.281425	+1.38%	0.0081	✓	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.247304	-0.62%	0.277585	+11.55%	0.0845	✗	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.21893	-0.33%	0.24885	+13.29%	0.1329	✗	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.230239	-0.36%	0.21966	-4.94%	0.0650	✓	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.279842	-0.79%	0.23107	-18.08%	0.1881	✓	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.277656	-0.82%	0.28208	+0.76%	0.0336	✗	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.272176	-0.80%	0.279945	+2.03%	0.0123	✗	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.293219	-1.40%	0.27437	-7.74%	0.0233	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.199294	+0.43%	0.297375	+49.85%	0.3646	✓	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.236242	-0.03%	0.198445	-16.03%	0.1262	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.209614	+0.54%	0.23632	+13.35%	0.1011	✓	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.207229	+0.70%	0.20848	+1.31%	0.0030	✓	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.199823	+0.92%	0.20578	+3.92%	0.0083	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.23064	+0.63%	0.19801	-13.60%	0.1150	✗	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.244857	+0.50%	0.22919	-5.93%	0.0134	✗	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.267002	+0.22%	0.24363	-8.55%	0.0869	✗	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.287429	-0.13%	0.266405	-7.44%	0.0591	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.29011	-0.07%	0.28781	-0.86%	0.0480	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.274392	+0.36%	0.290305	+6.18%	0.0509	✓	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.29965	-0.08%	0.27341	-8.83%	0.0838	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.401769	-1.02%	0.29989	-26.12%	0.3237	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.389342	-1.12%	0.40591	+3.09%	0.0437	✗	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.292181	+0.34%	0.39374	+35.22%	0.2938	✓	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.314758	-0.10%	0.291185	-7.58%	0.0532	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.362274	-0.60%	0.31507	-13.55%	0.1407	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.334839	-0.30%	0.36447	+8.52%	0.0770	✗	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.338994	-0.28%	0.33586	-1.21%	0.0022	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.393063	-0.56%	0.33996	-14.00%	0.1453	✓	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.478009	-1.03%	0.39528	-18.16%	0.1508	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.548511	-1.54%	0.482965	-13.31%	0.1191	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.458528	-0.78%	0.55709	+20.55%	0.0913	✗	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.481151	-0.92%	0.46212	-4.84%	0.0389	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.573986	-1.84%	0.485615	-16.95%	0.1741	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.469075	-0.88%	0.58476	+23.57%	0.1477	✗	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.374581	+0.21%	0.47322	+26.60%	0.2303	✓	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.321103	+0.67%	0.37378	+17.19%	0.1425	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.372346	+0.41%	0.318955	-13.99%	0.1195	✗	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.380496	+0.39%	0.37084	-2.16%	0.0448	✗	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.355803	+0.51%	0.379015	+7.07%	0.0699	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.383367	+0.34%	0.353985	-7.35%	0.0805	✗	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.397217	+0.19%	0.382085	-3.63%	0.0485	✗	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.418556	-0.06%	0.396465	-5.34%	0.0316	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.499428	-0.50%	0.41882	-16.56%	0.1739	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.553788	-0.74%	0.50196	-10.03%	0.0901	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.671764	-1.10%	0.55791	-17.86%	0.1701	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.775989	-1.81%	0.679235	-14.05%	0.1395	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.62396	-1.12%	0.790295	+25.24%	0.2344	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.756809	-1.67%	0.63101	-18.02%	0.1620	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.818879	-2.30%	0.76968	-8.17%	0.1119	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.847079	-3.11%	0.838135	-4.13%	0.0094	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.876698	-4.12%	0.87428	-4.39%	0.0122	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.508519	-3.07%	0.91438	+74.29%	0.5753	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.318661	-1.75%	0.52462	+61.75%	0.5058	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.239147	-0.88%	0.32435	+34.44%	0.2997	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.261623	-1.16%	0.24126	-8.85%	0.0502	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.360146	-3.25%	0.26469	-28.89%	0.3236	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.15686	-0.43%	0.37223	+136.28%	0.8578	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.196211	-1.23%	0.15754	-20.69%	0.2137	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.139966	-0.66%	0.19865	+40.99%	0.3342	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.08456	-0.64%	0.1409	+65.57%	0.5019	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.110409	-0.26%	0.0851	-23.13%	0.2440	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.104861	-0.51%	0.1107	+5.03%	0.0161	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.