TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s5
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +7d
assessed
20
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
95.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4140
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0234
actual -0.4158
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001691 | -5.56% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001603 | -4.44% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001544 | -3.29% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.00122 | +0.55% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001318 | +0.54% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001348 | +0.96% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001457 | +0.66% | – | pending | – | – | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001519 | +0.96% | 0.001791 | +19.00% | 0.1506 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001575 | +0.75% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0649 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001752 | +0.56% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0936 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002194 | -1.77% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5727 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002255 | -1.50% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5238 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.00265 | -2.65% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6729 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002233 | -0.62% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4391 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002526 | -1.85% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4973 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002234 | -1.23% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3284 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.00238 | -1.41% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2642 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003011 | -2.44% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2651 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003076 | -2.55% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2733 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003848 | -3.19% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3228 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003638 | -3.29% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4440 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003696 | -3.89% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3585 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003727 | -5.51% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5218 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004791 | -4.57% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7126 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005314 | -4.42% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5673 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006009 | -3.86% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6479 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006921 | -3.38% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5594 | ✓ | 1.00 |