TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s5
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +1d
assessed
26
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
57.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1112
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0033
actual -0.0511
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.00177 | -1.18% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001661 | -0.96% | 0.001791 | +6.80% | 0.0704 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001585 | -0.75% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0805 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001217 | +0.35% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2681 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001315 | +0.34% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0683 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001341 | +0.42% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0248 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001452 | +0.35% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0764 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001511 | +0.41% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0502 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001569 | +0.38% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0229 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001748 | +0.35% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1284 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002229 | -0.22% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2232 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002286 | -0.16% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0321 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002706 | -0.60% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1715 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002247 | -0.01% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1815 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002563 | -0.41% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1126 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002259 | -0.15% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1576 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002409 | -0.19% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0607 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.00307 | -0.51% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2317 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.00314 | -0.50% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0380 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003945 | -0.75% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2259 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003736 | -0.69% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0660 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003818 | -0.72% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0302 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003906 | -0.96% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0145 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004979 | -0.85% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2351 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005511 | -0.86% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0812 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006198 | -0.84% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1094 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.00709 | -1.02% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1298 | ✓ | 1.00 |