DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 504

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

150

of 168 predictions shown

direction hit

70.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2833

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0281

actual -0.1652

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	1.3825	1.3798	-0.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-21	oos	1.287	1.2483	-3.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.8242	-0.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	2.9214	-4.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.0748	-8.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.1613	-11.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	10.1587	-12.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	1.9101	-17.29%	1.3825	-40.14%	0.3485	✓	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.4653	-17.36%	1.287	-56.86%	0.6797	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.3324	-18.32%	1.8375	-54.96%	0.5933	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	4.3404	-21.18%	3.069	-44.27%	0.3478	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	7.8585	-14.05%	3.3675	-63.17%	0.8272	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	16.1763	-6.23%	3.591	-79.18%	1.4865	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	14.3303	-14.26%	11.643	-30.34%	0.1949	✓	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	13.4722	-21.51%	2.3095	-86.54%	1.7689	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	19.6369	-19.88%	2.983	-87.83%	1.8637	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	37.6246	-13.60%	4.08	-90.63%	2.1926	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	76.4594	-10.53%	5.507	-93.56%	2.5829	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000367665	-1.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000370631	-2.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000248371	-0.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000267375	-0.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000305443	-1.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000268623	-0.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000279111	-0.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000306858	-1.08%	0.000375	+20.89%	0.1532	✗	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000298584	-0.97%	0.0003798	+25.97%	0.1761	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000277129	-0.60%	0.0002495	-10.51%	0.1653	✓	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000300126	-0.92%	0.000269	-11.19%	0.1675	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000301506	-0.95%	0.0003089	+1.48%	0.0503	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000327284	-1.42%	0.0002702	-18.61%	0.1778	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000304355	-1.02%	0.000281	-8.62%	0.0508	✓	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000322357	-1.36%	0.0003102	-5.08%	0.0456	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000296887	-0.84%	0.0003015	+0.70%	0.0057	✓	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000301675	-0.93%	0.0002788	-8.44%	0.0282	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000316944	-1.26%	0.0003029	-5.64%	0.0181	✗	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000310997	-1.11%	0.0003044	-3.21%	0.0032	✓	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000397158	-3.27%	0.000332	-19.14%	0.1519	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000358621	-2.44%	0.0003075	-16.35%	0.1422	✓	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000319443	-1.32%	0.0003268	+0.96%	0.0128	✓	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000322676	-1.59%	0.0002994	-8.69%	0.0678	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000289943	-0.74%	0.0003045	+4.25%	0.0654	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000230212	+1.55%	0.000321	+41.60%	0.3482	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000242328	+1.52%	0.0003145	+31.76%	0.2798	✓	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000214093	+3.63%	0.0004106	+98.74%	0.6446	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.00022062	+3.82%	0.0003676	+72.99%	0.5320	✓	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000225263	+6.01%	0.0003237	+52.33%	0.3072	✓	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000231179	+4.28%	0.0003279	+47.90%	0.4858	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000270623	+2.16%	0.0002921	+10.27%	0.2228	✓	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000274302	+2.08%	0.0002267	-15.63%	0.0048	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000262918	+3.67%	0.0002387	-5.88%	0.0317	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000279971	+2.97%	0.0002066	-24.02%	0.0939	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000312929	+1.08%	0.0002125	-31.36%	0.0815	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000345559	+0.22%	0.0002125	-38.37%	0.0231	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000406852	-1.61%	0.0002217	-46.38%	0.2875	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000352086	-0.06%	0.0002649	-24.81%	0.0246	✓	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000347568	+0.66%	0.0002687	-22.18%	0.0839	✗	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.00034996	+1.29%	0.0002536	-26.60%	0.1404	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000390181	-0.74%	0.0002719	-30.83%	0.1761	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000406301	-1.05%	0.0003096	-24.60%	0.1766	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000401003	-0.94%	0.0003448	-14.82%	0.0631	✓	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000362647	+0.48%	0.0004135	+14.57%	0.1346	✓	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000402626	-0.78%	0.0003523	-13.18%	0.1491	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000440601	-1.48%	0.0003453	-22.79%	0.1632	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000501373	-1.71%	0.0003455	-32.27%	0.2307	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000513668	-1.78%	0.0003931	-24.84%	0.1561	✓	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000531179	-1.98%	0.0004106	-24.23%	0.1466	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000515696	-1.94%	0.0004048	-23.03%	0.1321	✓	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000558739	-2.15%	0.0003609	-36.80%	0.3023	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000569338	-2.18%	0.0004058	-30.27%	0.2158	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000539607	-1.89%	0.0004472	-18.69%	0.2157	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000588581	-2.02%	0.0005101	-15.08%	0.1993	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000635991	-2.29%	0.000523	-19.65%	0.2907	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000545827	-1.62%	0.0005419	-2.33%	0.1168	✓	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000571242	-1.66%	0.0005259	-9.47%	0.1825	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.00056969	-1.59%	0.000571	-1.36%	0.1209	✓	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000642456	-1.93%	0.000582	-11.16%	0.1341	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000674175	-2.17%	0.00055	-20.19%	0.1453	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000653823	-2.02%	0.0006007	-9.98%	0.0710	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000617685	-1.71%	0.0006509	+3.58%	0.0573	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000617434	-1.62%	0.0005548	-11.60%	0.1192	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000581929	-1.12%	0.0005809	-1.29%	0.0516	✓	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000568123	-0.76%	0.0005789	+1.12%	0.0636	✓	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.0006138	-1.08%	0.0006551	+5.58%	0.0528	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000596816	-0.61%	0.0006891	+14.75%	0.0012	✓	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000611791	-0.60%	0.0006673	+8.42%	0.0084	✗	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000588564	-0.04%	0.0006284	+6.73%	0.0131	✗	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000626706	-0.16%	0.0006276	-0.02%	0.0473	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000614562	+0.37%	0.0005885	-3.89%	0.0723	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000597578	+0.99%	0.0005725	-3.24%	0.0408	✗	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000621911	+1.07%	0.0006205	+0.85%	0.0262	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000683747	+0.30%	0.0006005	-11.91%	0.0969	✗	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000687189	+0.61%	0.0006155	-9.88%	0.0929	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000695826	+0.89%	0.0005888	-14.63%	0.1551	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.00071186	+0.89%	0.0006277	-11.04%	0.1071	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.00063823	+3.71%	0.0006123	-0.50%	0.0802	✗	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000648333	+3.82%	0.0005917	-5.25%	0.1230	✗	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000748052	+1.06%	0.0006153	-16.87%	0.1860	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000817896	+0.48%	0.0006817	-16.25%	0.2302	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000882681	-0.26%	0.000683	-22.82%	0.2669	✓	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001035	-0.73%	0.0006897	-33.87%	0.3646	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.00102	-0.77%	0.0007056	-31.36%	0.3215	✓	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001087	-0.96%	0.0006154	-43.95%	0.4148	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001213	-1.12%	0.0006245	-49.10%	0.5362	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001305	-1.29%	0.0007402	-44.01%	0.4623	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001328	-1.30%	0.000814	-39.48%	0.3952	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001298	-1.21%	0.000885	-32.65%	0.3343	✓	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001416	-1.34%	0.001043	-27.32%	0.3274	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.00146	-1.40%	0.001028	-30.59%	0.3716	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001479	-1.43%	0.001098	-26.80%	0.3076	✓	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001553	-1.57%	0.001227	-22.24%	0.2042	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001569	-1.62%	0.001322	-17.12%	0.2026	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001558	-1.63%	0.001345	-15.09%	0.2558	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001512	-1.54%	0.001314	-14.45%	0.1415	✓	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001532	-1.62%	0.001435	-7.84%	0.0223	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001508	-1.61%	0.001481	-3.39%	0.0245	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001569	-1.79%	0.0015	-6.13%	0.0662	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001587	-1.89%	0.001578	-2.47%	0.0862	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001594	-1.90%	0.001595	-1.85%	0.1123	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001492	-1.70%	0.001584	+4.35%	0.1181	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001454	-1.55%	0.001536	+3.99%	0.0473	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001558	-1.70%	0.001557	-1.77%	0.1850	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001737	-2.31%	0.001533	-13.78%	0.2995	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001663	-2.15%	0.001598	-6.00%	0.1855	✓	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.001969	-3.46%	0.001618	-20.65%	0.1660	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002279	-5.70%	0.001625	-32.77%	0.1700	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001591	-2.37%	0.001518	-6.87%	0.0586	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001629	-2.79%	0.001477	-11.87%	0.1115	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001271	-1.52%	0.001585	+22.77%	0.5551	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.00148	-2.03%	0.001778	+17.67%	0.4827	✗	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001348	-1.93%	0.0017	+23.64%	0.7516	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001512	-2.51%	0.002039	+31.46%	0.6917	✗	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001443	-2.43%	0.002417	+63.42%	0.9119	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001542	-2.91%	0.00163	+2.64%	0.6211	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001643	-3.20%	0.001676	-1.24%	0.4489	✗	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001514	-2.69%	0.001291	-17.03%	0.1097	✗	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001866	-4.02%	0.001511	-22.27%	0.1350	✗	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001605	-2.90%	0.001375	-16.82%	0.0933	✓	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001765	-3.81%	0.001551	-15.48%	0.0469	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.00169	-3.53%	0.001479	-15.58%	0.1896	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001591	-3.77%	0.001588	-3.93%	0.0254	✓	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002236	-6.97%	0.001697	-29.41%	0.0228	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001469	-3.35%	0.001556	+2.37%	0.3874	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001605	-3.63%	0.001944	+16.76%	0.4577	✗	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001631	-3.70%	0.001653	-2.42%	0.3127	✗	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001699	-4.14%	0.001835	+3.56%	0.3469	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001596	-4.16%	0.001752	+5.23%	0.2002	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001761	-4.66%	0.001653	-10.50%	0.0050	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.0019	-5.29%	0.002404	+19.84%	0.2710	✗	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001731	-4.79%	0.00152	-16.39%	0.1154	✓	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001686	-4.80%	0.001665	-5.99%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.001944	-5.62%	0.001694	-17.77%	0.1212	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001472	-4.40%	0.001772	+15.06%	0.1628	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001291	-5.51%	0.001665	+21.89%	0.2136	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001801	-4.85%	0.001847	-2.43%	0.0063	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002175	-5.01%	0.002006	-12.40%	0.1336	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002151	-5.00%	0.001818	-19.70%	0.2089	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002559	-5.37%	0.001771	-34.50%	0.4101	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002701	-5.96%	0.00206	-28.27%	0.2884	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002522	-6.04%	0.00154	-42.62%	0.4637	✓	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004487	-6.39%	0.001366	-71.50%	1.1467	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004678	-6.69%	0.001893	-62.25%	0.8631	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.005991	-7.57%	0.00229	-64.67%	0.9045	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.004849	-6.87%	0.002264	-56.52%	0.7290	✓	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001462	-5.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001235	-6.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001212	-8.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001618	-6.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.00