DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

59.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1193

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0176

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	1.9651	-1.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.7846	-2.88%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.1111	✗	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	3.012	-1.86%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.5076	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.2792	-2.62%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0642	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.4436	-4.10%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0300	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	11.1236	-4.46%	3.591	-69.16%	1.1292	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	1.7582	-23.87%	11.643	+404.14%	1.8980	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.2695	-23.92%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.0107	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.1279	-23.33%	2.983	-26.89%	0.0288	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	4.2734	-22.40%	4.08	-25.91%	0.0628	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	7.6911	-15.88%	5.507	-39.77%	0.3106	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	16.5418	-4.11%	9.143	-47.00%	0.6021	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	14.4571	-13.51%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.1722	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	13.9119	-18.95%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.1732	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	20.3189	-17.09%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.1495	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	38.9414	-10.58%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.4362	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	81.9513	-4.10%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6298	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.00037255	-0.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000375924	-1.02%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0282	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249325	-0.07%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3645	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268693	-0.11%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0676	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000307989	-0.29%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1804	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.00026993	-0.10%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1524	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280683	-0.11%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0544	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.00030942	-0.25%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0728	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300871	-0.21%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0377	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278594	-0.07%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0234	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000302407	-0.16%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0733	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303881	-0.17%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0393	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330945	-0.32%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0789	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.00030691	-0.19%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0790	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325826	-0.30%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0718	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298975	-0.14%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0815	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000304021	-0.16%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0000	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000320215	-0.24%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0299	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313844	-0.21%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0215	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000406516	-0.99%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2419	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000364807	-0.76%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1048	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000322349	-0.42%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0978	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000325869	-0.62%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0028	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000290749	-0.46%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1422	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000227187	+0.21%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2678	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000239114	+0.17%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0511	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000208681	+1.01%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1219	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000214778	+1.07%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0228	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000216023	+1.66%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1379	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000224366	+1.20%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1862	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000266098	+0.45%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1273	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000269698	+0.37%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0448	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000256043	+0.96%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0158	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000273816	+0.70%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0395	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000309703	+0.03%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0137	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000344041	-0.22%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.0973	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000410036	-0.84%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0877	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000351014	-0.36%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1630	✗	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000344625	-0.20%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0073	✗	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000345398	-0.03%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0299	✓	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000391429	-0.43%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0822	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.00040839	-0.54%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0314	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000402867	-0.48%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0188	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000360706	-0.05%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1137	✗	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000404849	-0.23%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1353	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000445478	-0.39%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0139	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000507438	-0.52%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1056	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000520239	-0.53%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0069	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000538556	-0.62%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0223	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000523051	-0.54%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0369	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000567359	-0.64%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0524	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000578169	-0.66%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0385	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000546872	-0.57%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0218	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000596865	-0.64%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0883	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000645552	-0.82%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0822	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000552001	-0.50%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1680	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000577924	-0.51%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0294	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000576168	-0.47%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0139	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000651309	-0.58%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0648	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000684175	-0.71%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0403	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000662464	-0.72%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0121	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000624212	-0.67%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0472	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000623342	-0.68%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0060	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000585473	-0.51%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0427	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.00057012	-0.42%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0043	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000617194	-0.53%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0546	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000598273	-0.37%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0080	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.00061315	-0.38%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0038	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000587629	-0.20%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0450	✗	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000626231	-0.23%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0711	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000611835	-0.08%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0233	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000592493	+0.13%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0412	✓	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000616338	+0.17%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0453	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000681312	-0.06%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0763	✓	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000683178	+0.03%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0003	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000690483	+0.11%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0182	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000706611	+0.14%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0296	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000621807	+1.04%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0672	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.00063137	+1.10%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0085	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000743336	+0.42%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1378	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000816456	+0.30%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1304	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.00088616	+0.13%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0454	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001042	-0.09%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1184	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001028	-0.04%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0154	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001097	-0.09%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0169	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001224	-0.21%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1197	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001318	-0.29%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0578	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001342	-0.25%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0583	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001312	-0.16%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0194	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001432	-0.21%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1110	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001478	-0.23%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0276	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001496	-0.24%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0520	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001573	-0.32%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0172	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.00159	-0.32%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0557	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001579	-0.29%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1146	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001532	-0.26%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1480	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001552	-0.30%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0020	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001529	-0.28%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0204	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001592	-0.38%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0265	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001611	-0.42%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0313	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001619	-0.40%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0898	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001514	-0.28%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0984	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001474	-0.20%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0130	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001581	-0.27%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1331	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001768	-0.54%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0976	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001692	-0.49%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0961	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.002016	-1.14%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0178	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002358	-2.45%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1025	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001618	-0.72%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3793	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001659	-1.01%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0398	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001288	-0.22%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3030	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001503	-0.52%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1833	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.00137	-0.40%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2929	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.00154	-0.74%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0381	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.00147	-0.60%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1050	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001575	-0.81%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0516	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.00168	-0.98%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1059	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001546	-0.63%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0011	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001916	-1.42%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1705	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001641	-0.75%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0979	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001813	-1.18%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0029	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001735	-0.99%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0309	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001637	-0.94%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3112	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002333	-2.95%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1737	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001508	-0.78%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4465	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001648	-1.00%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1015	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001677	-1.00%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0584	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001751	-1.21%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0411	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001648	-1.01%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0983	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001822	-1.35%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0798	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001971	-1.72%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0612	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001794	-1.31%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0862	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.00175	-1.20%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0327	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002023	-1.78%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1416	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001528	-0.78%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2755	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001358	-0.56%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1327	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001875	-0.95%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2966	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002264	-1.14%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1962	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002239	-1.09%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0087	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002671	-1.21%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1724	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002829	-1.51%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0289	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002613	-2.65%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1183	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004705	-1.84%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5410	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004914	-2.00%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0055	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006334	-2.27%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2354	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005107	-1.92%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.2002	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001515	-1.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001306	-1.37%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1478	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001285	-2.57%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0097	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001695	-1.59%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2480	✓	1.00