DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

131

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

54.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1612

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0265

actual +0.0604

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.374161	-3.09%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.385717	-3.27%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.386314	-3.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.371495	-2.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.389315	-3.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.374634	-3.25%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.394833	-4.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.400029	-3.93%	0.386075	-7.28%	0.0546	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.430323	-4.55%	0.398745	-11.56%	0.0735	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.420645	-4.57%	0.39882	-9.52%	0.0549	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.473025	-4.70%	0.38187	-23.06%	0.1825	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.51339	-4.68%	0.403015	-25.18%	0.2122	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.489911	-5.01%	0.387205	-24.93%	0.2148	✓	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.415384	-4.89%	0.41127	-5.83%	0.0182	✓	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.357835	-4.21%	0.416385	+11.47%	0.1862	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.388881	-4.59%	0.450845	+10.61%	0.1951	✗	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.393062	-4.62%	0.4408	+6.97%	0.1925	✗	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.397747	-4.61%	0.49633	+19.04%	0.2757	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.367422	-4.45%	0.538615	+40.07%	0.4177	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.379375	-4.30%	0.515775	+30.10%	0.3451	✗	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.377978	-4.35%	0.436745	+10.52%	0.2055	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.373091	-4.29%	0.373545	-4.18%	0.0066	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.36557	-4.22%	0.407595	+6.79%	0.0730	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.353957	-4.21%	0.41208	+11.52%	0.1104	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.416027	-4.41%	0.41695	-4.20%	0.0309	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.395752	-4.17%	0.38453	-6.88%	0.0341	✓	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.425575	-4.20%	0.39644	-10.76%	0.0775	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.433378	-4.47%	0.395175	-12.89%	0.0996	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.459668	-5.43%	0.38983	-19.80%	0.1518	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.414776	-4.94%	0.381685	-12.52%	0.0411	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.384791	-4.83%	0.36952	-8.60%	0.0119	✓	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.371756	-5.05%	0.43524	+11.17%	0.0960	✗	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.414383	-7.19%	0.412955	-7.51%	0.0616	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.280155	-5.09%	0.44425	+50.50%	0.4014	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.242847	-4.80%	0.45364	+77.84%	0.4800	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.230241	-5.86%	0.48606	+98.74%	0.5989	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.136296	-0.55%	0.436315	+218.36%	0.9849	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.140302	-0.48%	0.4043	+186.77%	0.9174	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.142636	-0.64%	0.391515	+172.72%	0.9324	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149293	-0.42%	0.446505	+197.83%	1.0258	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.148483	-0.01%	0.29519	+98.77%	0.6233	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147707	+0.00%	0.25509	+72.70%	0.5497	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.154185	+0.06%	0.24457	+58.71%	0.4990	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.163293	-0.39%	0.13705	-16.40%	0.1247	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.15784	+0.22%	0.140985	-10.49%	0.0968	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.165486	+0.21%	0.14356	-13.07%	0.0794	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.170633	-0.93%	0.14992	-12.96%	0.0841	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.150398	+0.51%	0.148505	-0.76%	0.0332	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.158893	+0.21%	0.147705	-6.85%	0.0127	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143176	-0.37%	0.154095	+7.23%	0.0545	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142084	-0.53%	0.16393	+14.76%	0.1227	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.15264	-0.73%	0.1575	+2.44%	0.0229	✗	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.154486	-1.17%	0.16514	+5.64%	0.0240	✗	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.168961	-1.71%	0.17224	+0.20%	0.0027	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.165897	-2.09%	0.14964	-11.69%	0.1284	✓	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.172194	-2.43%	0.15856	-10.16%	0.0956	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.162453	-2.67%	0.14371	-13.90%	0.0993	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.144726	-2.24%	0.14284	-3.51%	0.0020	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.157531	-3.84%	0.153755	-6.14%	0.0188	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.127841	-2.48%	0.15632	+19.25%	0.2019	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.111298	-1.80%	0.1719	+51.67%	0.4207	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.115917	-2.49%	0.16944	+42.53%	0.3853	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.096813	-1.69%	0.17649	+79.22%	0.5379	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.096383	-2.34%	0.166915	+69.13%	0.4539	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.091005	-2.64%	0.14804	+58.37%	0.3466	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.093066	-2.82%	0.163815	+71.06%	0.4180	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.099312	-4.06%	0.13109	+26.64%	0.1004	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.090748	-2.40%	0.11334	+21.90%	0.0540	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.090584	-2.32%	0.11888	+28.19%	0.0892	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.092796	-2.30%	0.098475	+3.68%	0.0578	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.096262	-2.41%	0.09869	+0.05%	0.0494	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.095398	-2.29%	0.093475	-4.26%	0.0354	✓	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.091453	-2.05%	0.095765	+2.57%	0.0386	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.094823	-2.31%	0.10351	+6.63%	0.1138	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.095143	-2.28%	0.092975	-4.50%	0.0014	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.094815	-2.14%	0.09274	-4.28%	0.0027	✓	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.09559	-2.26%	0.09498	-2.89%	0.0046	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.098597	-2.26%	0.09864	-2.22%	0.0160	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.099379	-2.25%	0.097635	-3.97%	0.0109	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.095245	-1.97%	0.093365	-3.91%	0.0257	✓	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.097572	-2.13%	0.09707	-2.64%	0.0226	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.103118	-2.49%	0.09736	-7.94%	0.0867	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.11236	-3.71%	0.096885	-16.97%	0.1766	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.092595	-2.09%	0.097805	+3.42%	0.0627	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.094629	-2.12%	0.100875	+4.34%	0.0511	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.10078	-2.31%	0.10167	-1.44%	0.0051	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.103201	-2.49%	0.09716	-8.20%	0.0561	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.111361	-2.80%	0.0997	-12.98%	0.0786	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.110439	-2.85%	0.105755	-6.97%	0.0160	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.111882	-2.69%	0.116685	+1.48%	0.0647	✗	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.115845	-2.74%	0.094575	-20.60%	0.1971	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.118358	-2.66%	0.09668	-20.49%	0.1646	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.116907	-2.53%	0.10316	-13.99%	0.0792	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.120476	-2.62%	0.105835	-14.45%	0.1017	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.119937	-2.55%	0.114575	-6.90%	0.0578	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.122905	-2.53%	0.113675	-9.85%	0.0688	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.126548	-2.60%	0.11498	-11.50%	0.0995	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.131649	-2.69%	0.119115	-11.95%	0.1249	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.141173	-3.20%	0.121595	-16.63%	0.1746	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.148396	-4.38%	0.11994	-22.72%	0.2409	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.114216	-2.29%	0.123715	+5.83%	0.0475	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.120346	-2.42%	0.12307	-0.21%	0.0129	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.121045	-2.40%	0.1261	+1.68%	0.0305	✗	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.114896	-2.40%	0.129925	+10.37%	0.1253	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.111871	-2.19%	0.135285	+18.29%	0.1839	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.106782	-2.08%	0.145845	+33.74%	0.2875	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.108182	-2.13%	0.1552	+40.40%	0.3450	✗	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.111175	-2.18%	0.116895	+2.86%	0.0667	✗	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.109803	-2.12%	0.12333	+9.94%	0.1147	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.105396	-2.11%	0.12402	+15.19%	0.1564	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.107792	-2.28%	0.11772	+6.72%	0.0725	✗	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.109563	-2.27%	0.11437	+2.02%	0.0250	✗	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.104698	-2.44%	0.10905	+1.61%	0.0171	✓	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.110629	-2.62%	0.11054	-2.70%	0.0641	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.103396	-2.16%	0.11365	+7.54%	0.0380	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.099326	-2.31%	0.11218	+10.34%	0.0618	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.085974	-1.54%	0.10767	+23.31%	0.1786	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.081802	-1.40%	0.11031	+32.97%	0.2579	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.081907	-1.36%	0.112105	+35.00%	0.2845	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.08158	-1.44%	0.10732	+29.65%	0.2911	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.084759	-1.63%	0.11361	+31.86%	0.3610	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.085745	-1.75%	0.10568	+21.09%	0.2701	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.089122	-1.84%	0.10167	+11.98%	0.1931	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.096472	-2.09%	0.08732	-11.38%	0.0306	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.093208	-2.02%	0.08296	-12.79%	0.0602	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.092145	-2.05%	0.08304	-11.73%	0.0522	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.095804	-2.16%	0.082775	-15.47%	0.0909	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.098263	-2.16%	0.08616	-14.21%	0.0851	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.099657	-2.30%	0.087275	-14.44%	0.0969	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.098474	-2.38%	0.090795	-9.99%	0.0429	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.098335	-2.42%	0.098535	-2.22%	0.0052	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.09983	-2.29%	0.09513	-6.89%	0.0472	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.101953	-2.29%	0.09407	-9.84%	0.0696	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.096548	-2.08%	0.09792	-0.69%	0.0335	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.102694	-2.25%	0.10043	-4.41%	0.0841	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.108336	-2.74%	0.102	-8.43%	0.1100	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.101167	-2.40%	0.10087	-2.68%	0.0402	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.089856	-1.83%	0.10077	+10.10%	0.0575	✗	1.00