DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

108

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

26.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4475

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0519

actual +0.3218

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.353433	-8.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.364693	-8.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.36504	-8.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.350916	-8.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.366878	-8.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.352305	-9.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.370317	-9.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.374804	-9.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.40302	-10.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.392955	-10.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.443236	-10.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.483051	-10.32%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.460971	-10.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.389831	-10.74%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.336252	-9.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.365142	-10.42%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.369201	-10.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.374094	-10.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.345177	-10.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.357239	-9.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.356268	-9.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.351391	-9.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.344541	-9.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.333004	-9.88%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.39338	-9.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.374405	-9.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.403715	-9.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.412085	-9.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.43748	-9.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.396659	-9.09%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.368974	-8.74%	0.386075	-4.51%	0.1108	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.355058	-9.31%	0.398745	+1.85%	0.0826	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.394904	-11.56%	0.39882	-10.68%	0.0013	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.269032	-8.86%	0.38187	+29.36%	0.3290	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.232428	-8.88%	0.403015	+57.99%	0.4580	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.22037	-9.90%	0.387205	+58.32%	0.4655	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.130935	-4.46%	0.41127	+200.09%	1.0318	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.135454	-3.92%	0.416385	+195.34%	1.0644	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.137567	-4.17%	0.450845	+214.05%	1.0765	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.144293	-3.75%	0.4408	+194.02%	1.0383	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.143627	-3.28%	0.49633	+234.22%	1.1292	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.142873	-3.27%	0.538615	+264.66%	1.2178	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.149757	-2.81%	0.515775	+234.71%	1.1647	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.158775	-3.14%	0.436745	+166.42%	0.9568	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.153688	-2.42%	0.373545	+137.17%	0.8167	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.1617	-2.08%	0.407595	+146.82%	0.8371	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.167064	-3.01%	0.41208	+139.25%	0.8039	✗	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.14731	-1.56%	0.41695	+178.64%	0.9203	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.156393	-1.37%	0.38453	+142.51%	0.8397	✗	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.139916	-2.64%	0.39644	+175.86%	0.9071	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.139121	-2.60%	0.395175	+176.66%	0.9051	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.14994	-2.48%	0.38983	+153.54%	0.8781	✗	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.151706	-2.95%	0.381685	+144.17%	0.8291	✗	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.166455	-3.17%	0.36952	+114.96%	0.7275	✗	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.163994	-3.21%	0.43524	+156.87%	0.8877	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.172691	-2.15%	0.412955	+133.98%	0.8181	✗	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.162931	-2.39%	0.44425	+166.15%	0.9373	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.145131	-1.97%	0.45364	+206.43%	1.0646	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.157559	-3.82%	0.48606	+196.71%	1.0587	✗	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.127813	-2.50%	0.436315	+232.84%	1.1296	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.111529	-1.60%	0.4043	+256.71%	1.1803	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.11749	-1.17%	0.391515	+229.34%	1.1715	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.095415	-3.11%	0.446505	+353.42%	1.4728	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.093687	-5.07%	0.29519	+199.11%	1.0357	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.087603	-6.28%	0.25509	+172.90%	0.9491	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.089551	-6.49%	0.24457	+155.39%	0.8838	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.09519	-8.04%	0.13705	+32.40%	0.2106	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.087453	-5.94%	0.140985	+51.64%	0.2972	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.087321	-5.84%	0.14356	+54.80%	0.3310	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.089505	-5.76%	0.14992	+57.84%	0.3514	✗	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.092789	-5.93%	0.148505	+50.55%	0.3056	✗	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.092167	-5.60%	0.147705	+51.28%	0.3159	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.088586	-5.12%	0.154095	+65.05%	0.3825	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.091679	-5.55%	0.16393	+68.88%	0.4234	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.092021	-5.48%	0.1575	+61.77%	0.3736	✗	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.091821	-5.23%	0.16514	+70.45%	0.4100	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.092356	-5.57%	0.17224	+76.11%	0.4414	✗	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.095315	-5.51%	0.14964	+48.34%	0.2761	✗	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.096042	-5.54%	0.15856	+55.96%	0.3008	✗	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.092033	-5.28%	0.14371	+47.91%	0.2823	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.094099	-5.62%	0.14284	+43.27%	0.2531	✗	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.099091	-6.30%	0.153755	+45.39%	0.2437	✗	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.107648	-7.74%	0.15632	+33.97%	0.1870	✗	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.089276	-5.60%	0.1719	+81.76%	0.4398	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.091343	-5.52%	0.16944	+75.26%	0.3886	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.097246	-5.73%	0.17649	+71.08%	0.3280	✗	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.09945	-6.03%	0.166915	+57.71%	0.2638	✗	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.107092	-6.53%	0.14804	+29.21%	0.1177	✗	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.106093	-6.67%	0.163815	+44.11%	0.2008	✗	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.107678	-6.35%	0.13109	+14.01%	0.0237	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.111488	-6.40%	0.11334	-4.85%	0.1743	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.114081	-6.18%	0.11888	-2.23%	0.1490	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.112902	-5.87%	0.098475	-17.90%	0.2412	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.116179	-6.09%	0.09869	-20.23%	0.2351	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.115738	-5.96%	0.093475	-24.05%	0.2136	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.118756	-5.82%	0.095765	-24.06%	0.2093	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.12216	-5.98%	0.10351	-20.33%	0.1450	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.127115	-6.04%	0.092975	-31.27%	0.2980	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.136452	-6.44%	0.09274	-36.41%	0.3532	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.143426	-7.59%	0.09498	-38.80%	0.3828	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.110639	-5.35%	0.09864	-15.62%	0.1276	✓	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.116712	-5.37%	0.097635	-20.83%	0.1763	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.117408	-5.33%	0.093365	-24.72%	0.2306	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.111751	-5.07%	0.09707	-17.54%	0.1482	✓	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.108685	-4.97%	0.09736	-14.87%	0.1276	✓	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.103756	-4.86%	0.096885	-11.16%	0.0945	✓	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.105315	-4.73%	0.097805	-11.52%	0.0830	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.108229	-4.77%	0.100875	-11.24%	0.0760	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.106835	-4.76%	0.10167	-9.37%	0.0540	✓	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.102638	-4.67%	0.09716	-9.76%	0.0584	✓	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.104878	-4.92%	0.0997	-9.62%	0.0602	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.106422	-5.07%	0.105755	-5.66%	0.0199	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.101705	-5.23%	0.116685	+8.73%	0.1078	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.107196	-5.65%	0.094575	-16.75%	0.2062	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.100501	-4.90%	0.09668	-8.52%	0.0938	✓	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.096599	-4.99%	0.10316	+1.47%	0.0021	✓	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.083799	-4.03%	0.105835	+21.20%	0.1784	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.079682	-3.95%	0.114575	+38.11%	0.2780	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.079738	-3.98%	0.113675	+36.89%	0.2805	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.079456	-4.01%	0.11498	+38.91%	0.3200	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.082595	-4.14%	0.119115	+38.25%	0.3284	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.083498	-4.33%	0.121595	+39.32%	0.3430	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.086701	-4.51%	0.11994	+32.10%	0.2739	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.093624	-4.98%	0.123715	+25.55%	0.2634	✗	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.090487	-4.88%	0.12307	+29.37%	0.2887	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.089391	-4.97%	0.1261	+34.05%	0.3140	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.092866	-5.16%	0.129925	+32.68%	0.3444	✗	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.095351	-5.06%	0.135285	+34.71%	0.3784	✗	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.096485	-5.41%	0.145845	+42.99%	0.4370	✗	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.095237	-5.58%	0.1552	+53.86%	0.4993	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.095012	-5.71%	0.116895	+16.00%	0.2414	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.096595	-5.46%	0.12333	+20.71%	0.2412	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.09867	-5.43%	0.12402	+18.86%	0.2254	✗	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.093537	-5.14%	0.11772	+19.39%	0.1872	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.099408	-5.38%	0.11437	+8.86%	0.1163	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.104688	-6.02%	0.10905	-2.10%	0.0540	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.097824	-5.62%	0.11054	+6.65%	0.1219	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.087043	-4.90%	0.11365	+24.17%	0.2162	✗	1.00