DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

137

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

58.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0536

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0089

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.383679	-0.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.395838	-0.73%	0.386075	-3.18%	0.0208	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.395949	-0.72%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0121	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.379815	-0.54%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0517	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.399784	-0.80%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0567	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.384624	-0.67%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0488	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.407666	-0.88%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0409	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.413039	-0.80%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0138	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.445818	-1.12%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0425	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.436324	-1.02%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0096	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.490307	-1.21%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0698	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.53031	-1.54%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0810	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.50565	-1.96%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0561	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.429342	-1.70%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1672	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.369844	-0.99%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1983	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.402884	-1.16%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0318	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.407028	-1.23%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0054	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.411471	-1.31%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0159	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.380208	-1.12%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0590	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.391738	-1.19%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0231	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.389928	-1.33%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0231	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.385083	-1.22%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0014	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.377011	-1.22%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0350	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.365475	-1.09%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0401	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.42822	-1.61%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1309	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.407271	-1.38%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0657	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.437084	-1.61%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0619	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.444369	-2.04%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0044	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.471263	-3.04%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0382	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.424613	-2.68%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1649	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.393504	-2.67%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1098	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.380622	-2.78%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0398	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.424808	-4.86%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0802	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.286319	-3.01%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4376	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.248353	-2.64%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0894	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.23551	-3.70%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0760	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.137005	-0.03%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5694	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.140929	-0.04%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0185	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.143468	-0.06%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0423	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149847	-0.05%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0345	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.148519	+0.01%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0084	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147732	+0.02%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0067	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.154041	-0.03%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0113	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.163594	-0.21%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0570	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.157495	-0.00%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0514	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.164911	-0.14%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0242	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.170754	-0.86%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0422	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.149566	-0.05%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1383	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.158013	-0.34%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0262	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143443	-0.19%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0248	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142498	-0.24%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0103	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.153128	-0.41%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0508	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.155389	-0.60%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0251	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.170066	-1.07%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0764	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.167112	-1.37%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0228	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.173065	-1.94%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0118	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163524	-2.03%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0597	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.145834	-1.49%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1284	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.159289	-2.76%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0673	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129134	-1.49%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2227	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112297	-0.92%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1467	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.116814	-1.74%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0154	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.098031	-0.45%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1465	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.098093	-0.60%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0339	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.092957	-0.55%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0101	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.095072	-0.72%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0192	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.101591	-1.85%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0805	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092596	-0.41%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1138	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092387	-0.38%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0058	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.094613	-0.39%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0141	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.098186	-0.46%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0334	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.097166	-0.48%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0166	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.093031	-0.36%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0533	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096663	-0.42%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0227	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.096958	-0.41%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0019	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.096515	-0.38%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0085	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.097398	-0.42%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0134	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.10041	-0.46%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0219	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.101103	-0.56%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0095	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096795	-0.38%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0415	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099296	-0.41%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0213	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.105088	-0.63%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0628	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.114826	-1.59%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0814	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094224	-0.37%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2476	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096267	-0.43%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0326	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102707	-0.44%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0614	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.105316	-0.49%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0235	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.113906	-0.58%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0449	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.113012	-0.58%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0046	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.11434	-0.56%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0096	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118428	-0.58%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0127	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120898	-0.57%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0028	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.119283	-0.55%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0265	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.122983	-0.59%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0485	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122359	-0.58%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0013	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125266	-0.66%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0156	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.129023	-0.69%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0402	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.134198	-0.80%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0348	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.143862	-1.36%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0437	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.15125	-2.55%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0313	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116238	-0.56%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2591	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.122425	-0.73%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0310	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.123136	-0.71%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0019	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.116729	-0.84%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0642	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113712	-0.58%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0249	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108526	-0.48%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0432	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.109855	-0.62%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0032	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.112908	-0.65%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0148	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.111543	-0.57%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0148	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.10701	-0.61%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0426	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109477	-0.75%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0222	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111354	-0.67%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0205	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.106352	-0.90%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0368	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.112503	-0.97%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0667	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.10502	-0.62%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1039	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100811	-0.84%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0368	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.087079	-0.28%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1619	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082784	-0.21%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0545	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082873	-0.20%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0039	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.082596	-0.22%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0266	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085928	-0.27%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0105	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.087032	-0.28%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0106	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090509	-0.31%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0476	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.098142	-0.40%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0623	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.094783	-0.36%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0271	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.093732	-0.36%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0054	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097517	-0.41%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0114	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.099954	-0.47%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0026	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101535	-0.46%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0009	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.100389	-0.48%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0073	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.100292	-0.47%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0139	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101695	-0.46%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0231	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.103813	-0.51%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0156	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.098176	-0.43%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0270	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.104481	-0.55%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0541	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.110329	-0.95%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0269	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.102989	-0.64%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0822	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.091188	-0.37%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0886	✗	1.00