DCR

Decred · native · gru_s5

token id: #518
symbol: DCR
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-22
predictions: 432

Track record at +1d

assessed

143

of 144 predictions shown

direction hit

57.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0231

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0066

actual -0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	14.773	14.679	-0.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-20	oos	14.749	14.6693	-0.54%	14.773	+0.16%	0.0093	✗	0.76
2026-10-19	oos	14.512	14.4456	-0.46%	14.749	+1.63%	0.0107	✗	0.76
2026-10-18	oos	14.454	14.4034	-0.35%	14.512	+0.40%	0.0091	✗	0.75
2026-10-17	oos	14.407	14.3704	-0.25%	14.454	+0.33%	0.0001	✓	0.75
2026-10-16	oos	14.749	14.7066	-0.29%	14.407	-2.32%	0.0195	✓	0.74
2026-10-15	oos	15.122	15.0607	-0.41%	14.749	-2.47%	0.0153	✓	0.74
2026-10-14	oos	16.153	16.0651	-0.54%	15.122	-6.38%	0.0656	✓	0.75
2026-10-13	oos	16.365	16.2649	-0.61%	16.153	-1.30%	0.0071	✗	0.75
2026-10-12	oos	16.3325	16.2422	-0.55%	16.365	+0.20%	0.0049	✓	0.76
2026-10-11	oos	16.686	16.574	-0.67%	16.3325	-2.12%	0.0046	✓	0.82
2026-10-10	oos	16.8915	16.7881	-0.61%	16.686	-1.22%	0.0134	✓	0.79
2026-10-09	oos	17.4845	17.3679	-0.67%	16.8915	-3.39%	0.0313	✓	0.79
2026-10-08	oos	17.3785	17.2619	-0.67%	17.4845	+0.61%	0.0047	✓	0.79
2026-10-07	oos	18.089	17.9504	-0.77%	17.3785	-3.93%	0.0176	✓	0.77
2026-10-06	oos	18.356	18.2037	-0.83%	18.089	-1.45%	0.0143	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	18.533	18.3681	-0.89%	18.356	-0.96%	0.0012	✓	0.76
2026-10-04	oos	18.355	18.1947	-0.87%	18.533	+0.97%	0.0252	✗	0.77
2026-10-03	oos	18.2965	18.1489	-0.81%	18.355	+0.32%	0.0048	✓	0.78
2026-10-02	oos	18.255	18.1098	-0.80%	18.2965	+0.23%	0.0081	✗	0.78
2026-10-01	oos	18.171	18.0301	-0.78%	18.255	+0.46%	0.0155	✗	0.77
2026-09-30	oos	18.434	18.286	-0.80%	18.171	-1.43%	0.0184	✓	0.79
2026-09-29	oos	18.116	17.9794	-0.75%	18.434	+1.76%	0.0257	✗	0.79
2026-09-28	oos	17.8165	17.6874	-0.72%	18.116	+1.68%	0.0222	✗	0.79
2026-09-27	oos	18.519	18.3744	-0.78%	17.8165	-3.79%	0.0212	✓	0.80
2026-09-26	oos	18.273	18.1346	-0.76%	18.519	+1.35%	0.0205	✗	0.80
2026-09-25	oos	17.7	17.5776	-0.69%	18.273	+3.24%	0.0357	✗	0.81
2026-09-24	oos	18.268	18.1307	-0.75%	17.7	-3.11%	0.0213	✓	0.80
2026-09-23	oos	18.275	18.1258	-0.82%	18.268	-0.04%	0.0077	✓	0.80
2026-09-22	oos	18.729	18.5507	-0.95%	18.275	-2.42%	0.0033	✓	0.86
2026-09-21	oos	17.971	17.8166	-0.86%	18.729	+4.22%	0.0535	✗	0.78
2026-09-20	oos	17.302	17.175	-0.73%	17.971	+3.87%	0.0077	✓	0.82
2026-09-19	oos	17.503	17.3666	-0.78%	17.302	-1.15%	0.0030	✓	0.82
2026-09-18	oos	17.739	17.5844	-0.87%	17.503	-1.33%	0.0083	✓	0.83
2026-09-17	oos	16.852	16.7114	-0.83%	17.739	+5.26%	0.0118	✗	0.83
2026-09-16	oos	15.686	15.5978	-0.56%	16.852	+7.43%	0.0751	✗	0.83
2026-09-15	oos	14.752	14.7193	-0.22%	15.686	+6.33%	0.0574	✗	0.85
2026-09-14	oos	16.692	16.6106	-0.49%	14.752	-11.62%	0.0934	✓	0.75
2026-09-13	oos	16.3315	16.2712	-0.37%	16.692	+2.21%	0.0122	✗	0.75
2026-09-12	oos	16.0585	16.0332	-0.16%	16.3315	+1.70%	0.0230	✗	0.75
2026-09-11	oos	15.873	15.8651	-0.05%	16.0585	+1.17%	0.0116	✗	0.77
2026-09-10	oos	15.558	15.5726	+0.09%	15.873	+2.02%	0.0124	✓	0.77
2026-09-09	oos	16.4795	16.4825	+0.02%	15.558	-5.59%	0.0411	✗	0.74
2026-09-08	oos	17.3585	17.2697	-0.51%	16.4795	-5.06%	0.0453	✓	0.73
2026-09-07	oos	15.789	15.807	+0.11%	17.3585	+9.94%	0.0999	✓	0.77
2026-09-06	oos	16.599	16.5632	-0.22%	15.789	-4.88%	0.0361	✓	0.75
2026-09-05	oos	15.892	15.8298	-0.39%	16.599	+4.45%	0.0427	✗	0.75
2026-09-04	oos	15.5575	15.5266	-0.20%	15.892	+2.15%	0.0218	✗	0.72
2026-09-03	oos	14.294	14.3208	+0.19%	15.5575	+8.84%	0.0984	✓	0.79
2026-09-02	oos	13.9475	13.9244	-0.17%	14.294	+2.48%	0.0173	✓	0.87
2026-09-01	oos	14.385	14.3302	-0.38%	13.9475	-3.04%	0.0260	✓	0.89
2026-08-31	oos	14.5445	14.4651	-0.55%	14.385	-1.10%	0.0073	✗	0.86
2026-08-30	oos	14.067	14.0155	-0.37%	14.5445	+3.39%	0.0273	✗	0.85
2026-08-29	oos	14.2525	14.1842	-0.48%	14.067	-1.30%	0.0021	✓	0.85
2026-08-28	oos	14.129	14.0395	-0.63%	14.2525	+0.87%	0.0108	✗	0.85
2026-08-27	oos	13.932	13.8598	-0.52%	14.129	+1.41%	0.0463	✗	0.88
2026-08-26	oos	13.851	13.766	-0.61%	13.932	+0.58%	0.0019	✓	0.88
2026-08-25	oos	13.665	13.5738	-0.67%	13.851	+1.36%	0.0147	✗	0.87
2026-08-24	oos	13.851	13.7394	-0.81%	13.665	-1.34%	0.0004	✓	0.87
2026-08-23	oos	14.251	14.1	-1.06%	13.851	-2.81%	0.0319	✓	0.88
2026-08-22	oos	13.985	13.8252	-1.14%	14.251	+1.90%	0.0227	✗	0.88
2026-08-21	oos	13.0055	12.9294	-0.58%	13.985	+7.53%	0.0935	✗	0.92
2026-08-20	oos	11.955	11.9033	-0.43%	13.0055	+8.79%	0.0279	✗	0.86
2026-08-19	oos	11.9285	11.869	-0.50%	11.955	+0.22%	0.0411	✓	0.93
2026-08-18	oos	11.7125	11.6432	-0.59%	11.9285	+1.84%	0.0472	✓	1.04
2026-08-17	oos	12.0775	12.0017	-0.63%	11.7125	-3.02%	0.0277	✓	1.04
2026-08-16	oos	11.9685	11.8925	-0.63%	12.0775	+0.91%	0.0118	✓	1.06
2026-08-15	oos	12.037	11.9589	-0.65%	11.9685	-0.57%	0.0039	✓	1.06
2026-08-14	oos	11.97	11.8995	-0.59%	12.037	+0.56%	0.0108	✗	1.06
2026-08-13	oos	12.14	12.0678	-0.59%	11.97	-1.40%	0.0006	✓	1.06
2026-08-12	oos	12.246	12.1669	-0.65%	12.14	-0.87%	0.0024	✓	1.06
2026-08-11	oos	12.985	12.8903	-0.73%	12.246	-5.69%	0.0493	✓	1.06
2026-08-10	oos	12.7835	12.694	-0.70%	12.985	+1.58%	0.0290	✗	1.06
2026-08-09	oos	12.952	12.8583	-0.72%	12.7835	-1.30%	0.0096	✗	1.06
2026-08-08	oos	12.798	12.7078	-0.71%	12.952	+1.20%	0.0200	✗	1.06
2026-08-07	oos	12.7525	12.6622	-0.71%	12.798	+0.36%	0.0104	✗	1.06
2026-08-06	oos	12.51	12.4217	-0.71%	12.7525	+1.94%	0.0161	✗	1.06
2026-08-05	oos	12.977	12.871	-0.82%	12.51	-3.60%	0.0230	✓	1.05
2026-08-04	oos	13.3845	13.2707	-0.85%	12.977	-3.04%	0.0316	✓	1.07
2026-08-03	oos	13.2705	13.1594	-0.84%	13.3845	+0.86%	0.0072	✓	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	13.2305	13.1157	-0.87%	13.2705	+0.30%	0.0123	✗	1.07
2026-08-01	oos	13.1025	12.9771	-0.96%	13.2305	+0.98%	0.0069	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	13.158	13.0086	-1.14%	13.1025	-0.42%	0.0082	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	13.606	13.4209	-1.36%	13.158	-3.29%	0.0120	✓	1.07
2026-07-29	oos	11.6495	11.5625	-0.75%	13.606	+16.79%	0.1501	✗	0.98
2026-07-28	oos	11.581	11.4941	-0.75%	11.6495	+0.59%	0.0127	✗	0.98
2026-07-27	oos	11.183	11.1229	-0.54%	11.581	+3.56%	0.0380	✗	0.97
2026-07-26	oos	11.685	11.6219	-0.54%	11.183	-4.30%	0.0140	✓	0.96
2026-07-25	oos	11.5805	11.5217	-0.51%	11.685	+0.90%	0.0015	✓	0.96
2026-07-24	oos	11.5935	11.5345	-0.51%	11.5805	-0.11%	0.0008	✓	0.96
2026-07-23	oos	11.9935	11.9341	-0.50%	11.5935	-3.34%	0.0147	✓	0.95
2026-07-22	oos	12.47	12.4025	-0.54%	11.9935	-3.82%	0.0187	✓	0.94
2026-07-21	oos	12.5985	12.5225	-0.60%	12.47	-1.02%	0.0019	✓	0.94
2026-07-20	oos	12.729	12.6442	-0.67%	12.5985	-1.03%	0.0227	✓	0.97
2026-07-19	oos	12.72	12.6218	-0.77%	12.729	+0.07%	0.0005	✓	0.97
2026-07-18	oos	12.716	12.5927	-0.97%	12.72	+0.03%	0.0118	✗	0.97
2026-07-17	oos	12.584	12.4658	-0.94%	12.716	+1.05%	0.0063	✓	0.97
2026-07-16	oos	13.336	13.1714	-1.23%	12.584	-5.64%	0.0475	✓	0.98
2026-07-15	oos	13.502	13.2916	-1.56%	13.336	-1.23%	0.0178	✗	0.98
2026-07-14	oos	13.764	13.5273	-1.72%	13.502	-1.90%	0.0023	✓	0.98
2026-07-13	oos	12.513	12.3045	-1.67%	13.764	+10.00%	0.0752	✗	0.86
2026-07-12	oos	12.1975	12.0451	-1.25%	12.513	+2.59%	0.0594	✗	0.91
2026-07-11	oos	11.253	11.1772	-0.67%	12.1975	+8.39%	0.0878	✗	0.90
2026-07-10	oos	11.16	11.0982	-0.55%	11.253	+0.83%	0.0189	✗	0.90
2026-07-09	oos	11.012	10.9494	-0.57%	11.16	+1.34%	0.0056	✓	0.90
2026-07-08	oos	10.971	10.9077	-0.58%	11.012	+0.37%	0.0039	✓	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	11.012	10.9478	-0.58%	10.971	-0.37%	0.0179	✗	0.91
2026-07-06	oos	11.216	11.1529	-0.56%	11.012	-1.82%	0.0030	✓	0.91
2026-07-05	oos	11.145	11.0801	-0.58%	11.216	+0.64%	0.0062	✗	0.91
2026-07-04	oos	11.2845	11.2128	-0.64%	11.145	-1.24%	0.0133	✓	0.92
2026-07-03	oos	11.4835	11.4014	-0.71%	11.2845	-1.73%	0.0187	✓	0.93
2026-07-02	oos	11.1825	11.1072	-0.67%	11.4835	+2.69%	0.0181	✗	0.91
2026-07-01	oos	10.94	10.8696	-0.64%	11.1825	+2.22%	0.0057	✓	0.90
2026-06-30	oos	10.729	10.6653	-0.59%	10.94	+1.97%	0.0036	✓	0.90
2026-06-29	oos	11.281	11.2014	-0.71%	10.729	-4.89%	0.0190	✓	0.87
2026-06-28	oos	11.106	11.0287	-0.70%	11.281	+1.58%	0.0127	✗	0.86
2026-06-27	oos	11.4885	11.3974	-0.79%	11.106	-3.33%	0.0193	✓	0.86
2026-06-26	oos	11.197	11.1094	-0.78%	11.4885	+2.60%	0.0345	✗	0.85
2026-06-25	oos	10.96	10.8592	-0.92%	11.197	+2.16%	0.0265	✗	0.83
2026-06-24	oos	12.179	12.0373	-1.16%	10.96	-10.01%	0.0778	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	11.177	11.1083	-0.61%	12.179	+8.96%	0.1164	✗	0.91
2026-06-22	oos	11.5125	11.4371	-0.66%	11.177	-2.91%	0.0044	✓	0.90
2026-06-21	oos	11.433	11.3659	-0.59%	11.5125	+0.70%	0.0027	✓	0.90
2026-06-20	oos	11.873	11.7966	-0.64%	11.433	-3.71%	0.0158	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	11.617	11.5498	-0.58%	11.873	+2.20%	0.0159	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	11.479	11.4152	-0.56%	11.617	+1.20%	0.0081	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	12.04	11.9657	-0.62%	11.479	-4.66%	0.0169	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	12.39	12.3062	-0.68%	12.04	-2.82%	0.0039	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	12.67	12.5699	-0.79%	12.39	-2.21%	0.0044	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	12.812	12.71	-0.80%	12.67	-1.11%	0.0118	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	12.242	12.1596	-0.67%	12.812	+4.66%	0.0326	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	12.032	11.9537	-0.65%	12.242	+1.75%	0.0099	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	12.172	12.089	-0.68%	12.032	-1.15%	0.0043	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	11.832	11.7633	-0.58%	12.172	+2.87%	0.0003	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	11.962	11.8911	-0.59%	11.832	-1.09%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	12.271	12.1904	-0.66%	11.962	-2.52%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	12.382	12.2965	-0.69%	12.271	-0.90%	0.0017	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	12.29	12.2306	-0.48%	12.382	+0.75%	0.0272	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	12.102	12.0526	-0.41%	12.29	+1.55%	0.0225	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	13.152	13.0746	-0.59%	12.102	-7.98%	0.0329	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	14.506	14.4032	-0.71%	13.152	-9.33%	0.0872	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	14.746	14.6218	-0.84%	14.506	-1.63%	0.0321	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	15.614	15.4866	-0.82%	14.746	-5.56%	0.0185	✗	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	16.0015	15.8759	-0.78%	15.614	-2.42%	0.0146	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.