BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

55.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1392

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0195

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050288	-1.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049501	-1.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046774	-1.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048116	-1.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051959	-2.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054724	-2.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044106	-1.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043406	-0.93%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1461	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047339	-1.10%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0588	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.053997	-1.30%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1321	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065054	-1.78%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2738	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.066769	-1.88%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2172	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067148	-2.01%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1728	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064603	-2.06%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3741	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.065987	-2.23%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.3958	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065547	-2.36%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.2923	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.060663	-2.42%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0672	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.060777	-2.62%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.1124	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060314	-2.51%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1380	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.061291	-2.46%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1303	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.063548	-2.57%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0672	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064554	-2.43%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0471	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.0653	-2.39%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0139	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.065651	-2.29%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0749	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069335	-2.29%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1180	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069499	-2.30%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1184	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.067744	-2.13%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0776	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.065491	-2.09%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0068	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.06237	-2.01%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0640	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.067493	-2.08%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0082	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.066771	-2.07%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0318	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065146	-1.51%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0593	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064603	-1.38%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0710	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064427	-1.15%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0475	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061941	-0.83%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0199	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060991	-0.70%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0163	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062711	-0.77%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0417	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062394	-0.40%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0467	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061579	-0.41%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0486	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063736	-0.46%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0060	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063924	-0.50%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0011	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060502	-0.14%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0328	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061973	+0.07%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0019	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067444	-0.33%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0460	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067295	-0.21%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0656	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067466	+0.09%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0640	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068741	-0.02%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0536	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068667	+0.02%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0486	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070097	+0.67%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1124	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066721	-0.82%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0812	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.066967	-0.74%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0030	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068253	-0.18%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0149	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067484	-0.52%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0193	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070366	-0.33%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0336	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071109	-0.52%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0473	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073461	+0.27%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0599	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.071947	-0.37%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0562	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068555	-0.66%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0088	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.071743	-0.74%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0455	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.072534	-1.25%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0665	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.073363	-1.45%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0467	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.089499	-1.57%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2219	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082272	-2.26%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1518	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.078512	-2.77%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1453	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.076656	-2.94%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.2030	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.075278	-2.77%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1483	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.075793	-2.81%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1491	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.077411	-2.96%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1499	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.073391	-2.26%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.0919	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.073678	-2.25%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0551	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.07483	-2.23%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0171	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.075005	-2.16%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0402	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.075619	-2.23%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0172	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.072666	-1.88%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.0932	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.075663	-2.01%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0738	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.076295	-2.05%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0055	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.082207	-2.41%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0766	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.07872	-2.22%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0138	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.075297	-1.84%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0238	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.075141	-1.75%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0238	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.07461	-1.66%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0219	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074047	-1.53%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0200	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.077599	-1.82%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0173	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.078019	-1.88%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0815	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.078702	-1.86%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0155	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.077876	-1.68%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0170	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077987	-1.67%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0173	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.085336	-1.96%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.1018	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.082996	-1.87%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0862	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.082821	-1.89%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0366	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074708	-1.61%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0653	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.082584	-1.98%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0104	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.083683	-2.02%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0312	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084053	-2.08%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0471	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088284	-2.18%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0195	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.09007	-2.23%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0569	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.089723	-2.18%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0634	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089321	-2.21%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1813	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087382	-2.33%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0510	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085174	-2.53%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0162	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.09242	-2.43%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1220	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.099732	-2.40%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1144	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.096042	-2.30%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0585	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.101447	-2.42%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0973	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.108229	-2.86%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1790	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.085171	-2.16%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0154	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.08324	-2.12%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0271	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.09257	-2.40%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0449	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.089986	-2.57%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1249	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.089573	-2.66%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0833	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.09231	-2.79%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.0964	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.098111	-3.08%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.1023	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.12429	-4.78%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3979	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.096439	-3.75%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.1979	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.079297	-2.40%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1111	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.078562	-2.59%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1036	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073246	-2.18%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1827	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.065812	-1.79%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3302	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.069733	-1.91%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3463	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.081419	-2.40%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4857	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.096318	-3.19%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0866	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.091704	-2.70%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0761	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.091076	-2.87%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0764	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.086126	-2.63%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0867	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.094594	-3.31%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2990	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.092192	-3.29%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2181	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.075935	-2.39%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1484	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.074266	-2.45%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3392	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.076308	-2.88%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2470	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.070002	-2.16%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3298	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.067742	-1.97%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2698	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073203	-2.29%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2910	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.071525	-2.18%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.2982	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062145	-1.14%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1839	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.06385	-1.24%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1233	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063857	-1.36%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1641	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.068872	-1.79%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0059	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.065693	-1.06%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0036	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.061887	-0.41%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1579	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062473	-0.88%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1607	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069064	-1.55%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0581	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064139	-1.29%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0917	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.069608	-2.30%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0559	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.069583	-2.48%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1766	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.074738	-2.91%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.0947	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.073969	-3.12%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0289	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060126	-1.26%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2106	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061337	-1.41%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3065	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061276	-1.45%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2145	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.067265	-2.17%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1474	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.067185	-1.92%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1109	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.070646	-1.95%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1290	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.069993	-1.56%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1182	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.081652	-2.80%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2470	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.075058	-2.08%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1509	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070082	-0.97%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1093	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.070977	-0.72%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0352	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070333	-0.15%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0215	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075459	-0.44%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0307	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074996	+0.11%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0130	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.085996	-1.06%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0039	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088039	-0.89%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1235	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.107648	-2.60%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.4030	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.102454	-2.17%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3327	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.096313	-1.98%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2820	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.094643	-1.69%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.2063	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089203	-0.97%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1677	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.090824	-1.23%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0504	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087396	-0.74%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0325	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.089566	-1.05%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2134	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.093282	-1.52%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1010	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.096999	-1.98%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0180	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.113453	-2.52%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1790	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.107475	-2.46%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1911	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.10945	-2.60%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.2047	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.126069	-2.94%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.4086	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.134245	-3.05%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4525	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.132473	-3.28%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3671	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.129963	-2.88%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2711	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.130546	-3.07%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1280	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.119255	-2.80%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0891	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.130973	-3.57%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1276	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.11153	-2.80%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1843	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.124762	-4.51%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1047	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.109061	-4.30%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2082	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.084093	-2.44%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4009	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.088923	-2.52%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.3901	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.118244	-4.06%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0322	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.154428	-7.05%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1690	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083057	-2.90%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.2791	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.073428	-2.28%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5474	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064337	-2.08%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5528	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058348	-1.94%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3478	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.053794	-1.63%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.4925	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.052989	-1.61%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.7895	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.0527	-1.66%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1025	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.060895	-1.69%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.2884	✗	1.00