BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

168

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

70.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2423

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0905

actual -0.0915

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.052261	-3.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.052361	-3.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.048394	-3.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.045798	-3.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.047056	-3.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.050506	-4.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.0528	-5.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.043061	-3.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.042004	-4.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.045567	-4.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.052331	-4.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.063575	-4.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.065016	-4.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.065255	-4.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.062809	-4.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.06453	-4.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.06512	-2.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.06099	-1.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061625	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060742	-1.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.061825	-1.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.063964	-1.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064539	-2.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.06539	-2.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.065783	-2.09%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069238	-2.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069578	-2.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.067927	-1.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066303	-0.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063944	+0.46%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069034	+0.16%	0.054285	-21.24%	0.2273	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068788	+0.89%	0.054325	-20.32%	0.2152	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065154	-1.50%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2765	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064763	-1.14%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3177	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064321	-1.32%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2841	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.060774	-2.70%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1723	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.059945	-2.40%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1071	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.061206	-3.15%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3499	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.061443	-1.92%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3556	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.060322	-2.44%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2640	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.062238	-2.80%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1530	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.062543	-2.65%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0217	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.059312	-2.11%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.1053	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.060932	-1.61%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0967	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.065678	-2.94%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0163	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.065531	-2.83%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0027	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.065297	-3.13%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0047	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.066332	-3.52%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1029	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.06662	-2.96%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1121	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.068583	-1.50%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1263	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.063632	-5.41%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.0598	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.063733	-5.53%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0273	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.065641	-4.00%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0186	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.064645	-4.71%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0054	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.067813	-3.95%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.0426	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.068943	-3.55%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0139	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073382	+0.17%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.0572	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.071697	-0.72%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.0663	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068134	-1.27%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.0543	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072273	-0.00%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.1593	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.07284	-0.83%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1111	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.073659	-1.05%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1408	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090405	-0.58%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3288	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.07989	-5.09%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2387	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.07368	-8.75%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.1951	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.069233	-12.34%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.1867	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.067772	-12.46%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.1866	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.067364	-13.62%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.1660	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.068993	-13.51%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2152	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.065693	-12.51%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.1720	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.066147	-12.24%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1421	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.067432	-11.90%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.1792	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.067766	-11.60%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2298	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.068666	-11.22%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2495	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.066565	-10.11%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1196	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.069729	-9.70%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.1736	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.070452	-9.55%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.1971	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.07545	-10.43%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.2595	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.072574	-9.86%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2167	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.069336	-9.61%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.1682	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.069033	-9.74%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.1671	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.06869	-9.46%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1539	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.068055	-9.50%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1417	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.071578	-9.44%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.1913	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.073034	-8.15%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1626	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.073754	-8.03%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1606	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.073554	-7.14%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1434	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.073827	-6.92%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1555	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.081192	-6.72%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2639	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.079128	-6.45%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.1973	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.079095	-6.30%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1731	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.072143	-4.99%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0667	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.079856	-5.22%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0342	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.081054	-5.10%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0161	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.081245	-5.35%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0345	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.085001	-5.82%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0735	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.08658	-6.01%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1080	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.086117	-6.11%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0857	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.085523	-6.36%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0584	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.083745	-6.40%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0902	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.081702	-6.50%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0607	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.087557	-7.57%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1534	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.093817	-8.19%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.1987	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.090491	-7.95%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1593	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.094872	-8.74%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2583	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.099839	-10.39%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.2838	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.080405	-7.64%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0680	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.078589	-7.59%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0572	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.086742	-8.55%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0820	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.084278	-8.75%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1006	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.08377	-8.97%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.0965	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.086011	-9.42%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1392	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.090622	-10.47%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2055	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.109904	-15.80%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.3820	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.087788	-12.39%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.1911	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.074063	-8.84%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0134	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.073164	-9.28%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0176	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.068654	-8.31%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0904	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.062123	-7.29%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2617	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.0657	-7.58%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1861	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.075559	-9.42%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0704	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.087165	-12.39%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.1641	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.083852	-11.03%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0195	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.082792	-11.71%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0061	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.078766	-10.95%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0741	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.084473	-13.66%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0508	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.082257	-13.71%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0890	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.069969	-10.06%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2792	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.068359	-10.21%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.3186	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.069486	-11.57%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2767	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.064594	-9.72%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.3129	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.062465	-9.60%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4493	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.066384	-11.39%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.4281	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.064872	-11.28%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.4123	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.057482	-8.56%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5561	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.058723	-9.17%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.6201	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.058542	-9.57%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.4083	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.062481	-10.91%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.3080	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.0599	-9.79%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.4181	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.056572	-8.96%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4564	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.056735	-9.99%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4936	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.06206	-11.53%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.4463	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.057863	-10.95%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.6465	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.062711	-11.99%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.9141	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.062429	-12.50%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.7299	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.066751	-13.28%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.4221	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.06587	-13.73%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.4341	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.053871	-11.53%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5649	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.054888	-11.78%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4472	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.054761	-11.92%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5499	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.06022	-12.41%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5916	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.060402	-11.82%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.7304	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.063853	-11.38%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5936	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.063455	-10.75%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5884	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.073424	-12.59%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3500	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.068182	-11.05%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5369	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.06391	-9.69%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5688	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.065177	-8.83%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3273	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.064741	-8.09%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3056	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.070086	-7.53%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2498	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.069896	-6.69%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1830	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.079739	-8.26%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0021	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.081335	-8.44%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0617	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.097843	-11.47%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2092	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.093645	-10.58%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2703	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.088079	-10.36%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1618	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.086094	-10.57%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1640	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.08122	-9.84%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0320	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.082746	-10.02%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.0879	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.079981	-9.16%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0775	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.082172	-9.22%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1208	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.085468	-9.77%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0568	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.088459	-10.61%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.1963	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.103033	-11.48%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3104	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.097897	-11.15%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2801	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.099026	-11.88%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2301	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.112807	-13.15%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.3684	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.119516	-13.69%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6369	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.117582	-14.15%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.5963	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.116912	-12.63%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.5946	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.116514	-13.49%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5223	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.107474	-12.40%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.4441	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.116765	-14.03%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.4617	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.101988	-11.11%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3248	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.108896	-16.65%	0.084	-35.71%	0.2752	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.096412	-15.40%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.2504	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.077318	-10.30%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1276	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.082275	-9.81%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.1563	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.103901	-15.70%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.3927	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.123811	-25.48%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.5292	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.076274	-10.83%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.0729	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.068515	-8.82%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1490	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.060872	-7.35%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3149	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.054182	-8.95%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5840	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.050488	-7.67%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6179	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.049629	-7.85%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5643	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.049062	-8.45%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5577	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.057018	-7.95%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3368	✗	1.00