AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 459

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

152

of 153 predictions shown

direction hit

59.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0360

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0059

actual +0.0023

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.37325	0.368367	-1.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.38
2026-10-21	oos	0.3753	0.370003	-1.41%	0.37325	-0.55%	0.0079	✓	0.38
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.339528	-1.07%	0.3753	+9.35%	0.0953	✗	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.411965	-2.57%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1886	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.314966	-1.36%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2956	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.368853	-2.52%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1482	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.290351	-1.07%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2657	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.281302	-1.16%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0466	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.264495	-1.51%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0696	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.23517	-0.90%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1444	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230679	-0.61%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0181	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227105	-0.50%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0367	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231373	-0.48%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0197	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237493	-0.51%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0242	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.230929	-0.48%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0262	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.225152	-0.44%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0433	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.23152	-0.44%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0054	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.244034	-0.46%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0466	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260661	-0.55%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0555	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.264499	-0.69%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0232	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258499	-0.67%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0280	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.256818	-0.67%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0161	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.24394	-0.68%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0477	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243381	-0.76%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0097	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.241445	-0.72%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0141	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250554	-0.77%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0216	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.243905	-0.69%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0343	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.261727	-0.84%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0662	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.253414	-0.86%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0432	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.250555	-0.97%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0199	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.254121	-1.22%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0106	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.245362	-1.00%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0507	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.235599	-1.38%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0014	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.22328	-1.07%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0683	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.231557	-1.72%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0291	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.254732	-3.18%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1385	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155542	-0.13%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5229	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159139	-0.13%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0293	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.16432	-0.26%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0041	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.171259	-0.63%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0574	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166565	-0.11%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0406	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.15348	+0.12%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0822	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148804	+0.24%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0205	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158433	+0.05%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0418	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.165815	-0.08%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0438	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160288	+0.02%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0438	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.165669	-0.02%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0159	✓	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170367	-0.05%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0348	✓	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172117	-0.11%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0119	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.195661	-0.25%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1067	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.183745	-0.25%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0123	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189628	-0.30%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0278	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.193058	-0.31%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0000	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190454	-0.31%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0051	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.198999	-0.35%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0337	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201269	-0.36%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0127	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.207792	-0.34%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0017	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.209957	-0.38%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0223	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.208337	-0.41%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0053	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.201138	-0.33%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0450	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206176	-0.42%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0376	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.202632	-0.43%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0128	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.203911	-0.48%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0145	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.189828	-0.61%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0051	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.17882	-0.60%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0129	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.16954	-0.65%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0132	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.172986	-0.67%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0170	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.172876	-0.67%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0213	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177117	-0.69%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0143	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177389	-0.71%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0046	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179017	-0.68%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0060	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183568	-0.69%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0185	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.189768	-0.72%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0241	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.201321	-0.83%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0450	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.20564	-0.90%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0037	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.204579	-0.95%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0152	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.207647	-1.24%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0056	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188345	-0.98%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0993	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.18003	-0.89%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0607	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.166565	-0.71%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0774	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170148	-0.90%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0242	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.180719	-0.98%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0506	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169555	-1.16%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0611	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.159549	-0.75%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0736	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151164	-0.55%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0959	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149326	-0.52%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0029	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.1526	-0.46%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0174	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.153819	-0.47%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0062	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161683	-0.44%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0158	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.162888	-0.50%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0218	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.15373	-0.40%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0590	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153155	-0.32%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0252	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157632	-0.30%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0073	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159482	-0.29%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0012	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155415	-0.31%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0060	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153435	-0.30%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0065	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.15429	-0.30%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0005	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157492	-0.32%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0340	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159026	-0.33%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0087	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163609	-0.33%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0079	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161307	-0.30%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0224	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.156888	-0.33%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0210	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162278	-0.32%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0022	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.166767	-0.35%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0235	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.168979	-0.37%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0029	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167454	-0.35%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0055	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166318	-0.35%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0080	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.17047	-0.37%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0000	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178589	-0.42%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0299	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179485	-0.45%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0088	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183001	-0.52%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0246	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.17636	-0.50%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0311	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170139	-0.47%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0209	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.173903	-0.48%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0493	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.160848	-0.37%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0538	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165475	-0.38%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0087	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166329	-0.37%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0155	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168218	-0.37%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0019	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.17242	-0.39%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0195	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170243	-0.36%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0105	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.173939	-0.38%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0082	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.18108	-0.42%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0036	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186684	-0.46%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0011	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190246	-0.45%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0284	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.197346	-0.51%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0129	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189514	-0.44%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0314	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.192838	-0.65%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0247	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.202128	-0.77%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0104	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.19841	-0.70%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0489	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195803	-0.66%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0329	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.192343	-0.55%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0136	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189565	-0.44%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0048	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.190036	-0.50%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0120	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.192802	-0.59%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0090	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.174899	-0.29%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0695	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.17536	-0.22%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0041	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.183021	-0.32%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0185	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.182879	-0.34%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0077	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.177061	-0.08%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0038	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.176847	-0.03%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0050	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.191309	-0.26%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0339	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.209027	-0.37%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0824	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.205177	-0.54%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0624	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220355	-0.70%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0016	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.220793	-0.68%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0362	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.217678	-0.54%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0237	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.217019	-0.56%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0029	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.213862	-0.53%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0223	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.220965	-0.65%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0165	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.22629	-0.49%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0028	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.232147	-0.49%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0021	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.230212	-0.51%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0098	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.24105	-0.56%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0451	✓	1.00