AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

58.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0359

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0063

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.318422	-0.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.338907	-1.25%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0516	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.409744	-3.10%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1832	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.314222	-1.59%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2979	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.367039	-3.00%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1433	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.290149	-1.14%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2663	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.281197	-1.20%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0469	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.264149	-1.64%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0709	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.235058	-0.94%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1449	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230711	-0.60%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0179	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227011	-0.54%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0371	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231255	-0.54%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0192	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.23737	-0.56%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0237	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.230771	-0.55%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0269	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.224817	-0.59%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0448	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.230884	-0.72%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0027	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.243494	-0.68%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0443	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260226	-0.72%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0538	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.264209	-0.80%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0221	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258237	-0.77%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0290	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.256601	-0.75%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0169	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.243853	-0.71%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0481	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243309	-0.79%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0100	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.241297	-0.78%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0147	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250376	-0.84%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0208	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.243738	-0.76%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0349	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.261557	-0.91%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0656	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.253189	-0.94%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0440	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.250246	-1.09%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0211	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.253416	-1.49%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0134	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.244792	-1.23%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0530	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.234856	-1.69%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0045	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.222844	-1.27%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0703	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.230912	-1.99%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0263	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.252545	-4.01%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1299	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155503	-0.16%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5231	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159055	-0.19%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0288	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164042	-0.43%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0058	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.170219	-1.24%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0513	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166547	-0.12%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0407	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153585	+0.19%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0815	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148982	+0.36%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0193	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158601	+0.16%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0429	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.165849	-0.06%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0440	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160519	+0.17%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0423	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.165891	+0.12%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0172	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170541	+0.05%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0359	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172195	-0.06%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0124	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.195666	-0.25%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1067	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.183872	-0.18%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0117	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189717	-0.25%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0282	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.193095	-0.29%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0002	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190513	-0.28%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0048	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.198981	-0.36%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0336	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201292	-0.35%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0129	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.207733	-0.37%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0019	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.209964	-0.37%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0224	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.208384	-0.39%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0050	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.20124	-0.28%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0445	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206266	-0.38%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0380	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.202746	-0.37%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0122	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.20384	-0.52%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0148	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190056	-0.49%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0039	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.179176	-0.40%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0109	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169839	-0.48%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0150	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173256	-0.51%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0186	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173075	-0.56%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0224	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177297	-0.59%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0153	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177551	-0.62%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0037	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.17918	-0.59%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0050	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183712	-0.62%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0193	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.189885	-0.66%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0247	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.201391	-0.79%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0453	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.20568	-0.88%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0035	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.204612	-0.94%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0151	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.207499	-1.31%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0049	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188297	-1.00%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0996	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.17997	-0.92%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0611	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.166608	-0.68%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0771	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170016	-0.98%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0235	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.180739	-0.96%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0507	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169263	-1.33%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0628	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.159629	-0.70%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0731	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151283	-0.47%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0951	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149476	-0.42%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0019	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152762	-0.35%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0185	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.154002	-0.35%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0073	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161874	-0.32%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0170	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.163067	-0.39%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0229	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153922	-0.28%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0578	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.15339	-0.17%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0237	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157882	-0.14%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0089	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159744	-0.13%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0028	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155688	-0.14%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0042	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.15373	-0.11%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0046	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.15459	-0.10%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0024	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157805	-0.12%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0360	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159341	-0.13%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0107	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163933	-0.13%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0099	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161629	-0.11%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0204	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.157224	-0.11%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0231	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.16262	-0.11%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0043	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.167104	-0.15%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0255	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.169289	-0.18%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0048	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167758	-0.17%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0073	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166624	-0.17%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0098	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170792	-0.18%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0019	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178969	-0.21%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0320	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179908	-0.22%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0111	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183483	-0.25%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0272	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176823	-0.24%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0285	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170569	-0.22%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0184	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.174304	-0.25%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0516	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.161153	-0.18%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0519	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165678	-0.25%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0075	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166473	-0.29%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0163	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168343	-0.30%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0011	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.17249	-0.35%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0199	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170299	-0.32%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0102	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.173954	-0.37%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0081	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181026	-0.45%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0033	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186519	-0.55%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0002	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.189984	-0.58%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0270	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.196861	-0.75%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0104	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189088	-0.66%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0336	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.191883	-1.14%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0198	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.20103	-1.31%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0050	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.197516	-1.14%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0534	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.194957	-1.09%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0372	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.191574	-0.94%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0176	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.188889	-0.79%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0013	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.189021	-1.04%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0067	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.191533	-1.25%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0024	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.173919	-0.84%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0751	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.174452	-0.74%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0093	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.182005	-0.87%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0129	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.18172	-0.97%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0141	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.176201	-0.56%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.176066	-0.47%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0094	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.190599	-0.63%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0301	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.208621	-0.56%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0804	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.204711	-0.77%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0646	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220488	-0.64%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.220979	-0.59%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0354	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.21784	-0.46%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0229	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.216996	-0.57%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0030	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.213884	-0.52%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0222	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.220847	-0.70%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0160	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.22633	-0.47%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0026	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.232038	-0.54%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0016	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.229907	-0.65%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0111	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.240557	-0.76%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0431	✓	1.00