ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s5

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

59.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2420

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0188

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.00135	-1.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001237	-1.68%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.00124	-1.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.00113	-1.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001206	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.00125	-2.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001231	-2.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001069	-1.38%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2284	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001125	-1.63%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1150	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001112	-1.30%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1255	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001337	-2.18%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1194	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001327	-2.19%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0453	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.00121	-1.64%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0750	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001327	-2.01%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0624	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001411	-2.39%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2297	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001521	-2.75%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2372	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001584	-2.90%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2597	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001589	-2.98%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.0918	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001645	-3.10%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1534	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001702	-3.26%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2825	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001825	-3.35%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2317	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001812	-3.33%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2197	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.00174	-3.22%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1449	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.00165	-3.06%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0568	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001846	-3.12%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1620	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001923	-3.03%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1312	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001959	-2.93%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1164	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002188	-3.12%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1570	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001882	-2.68%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0131	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002095	-2.96%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.0988	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001704	-2.28%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0661	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001488	-0.77%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1747	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001757	-1.67%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0526	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001805	-1.42%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0407	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001631	+1.63%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1517	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.00172	+1.68%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0570	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001717	+2.45%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0260	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001836	+1.88%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.2029	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001933	+1.59%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3380	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001868	+2.19%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1226	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.00198	+1.24%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1502	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002049	+0.41%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2403	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002171	-0.67%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2057	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002216	-1.07%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2083	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002273	-1.54%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2098	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002483	-2.48%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1771	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002421	-2.57%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2179	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002928	-3.18%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3434	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003014	-3.08%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2739	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002273	-2.30%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0619	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002326	-2.35%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0629	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002567	-2.54%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1181	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002862	-2.90%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1744	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002494	-2.48%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0391	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002057	-2.08%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3449	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002267	-2.23%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2950	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002116	-2.31%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1314	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001886	-2.66%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2582	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002207	-2.76%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1846	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002295	-2.74%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2512	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.00257	-2.66%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0292	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002518	-2.47%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1711	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002947	-3.42%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4468	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002222	-2.92%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2615	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001893	-2.94%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3056	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001925	-3.07%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1713	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001816	-3.07%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0856	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001893	-3.19%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0032	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002017	-3.36%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1126	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001878	-3.21%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2527	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002132	-3.59%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0791	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001962	-3.41%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0361	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001699	-2.97%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1410	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001664	-3.06%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1711	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001541	-2.99%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2867	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001552	-3.05%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3413	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002044	-3.56%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0308	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001929	-3.44%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1657	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002268	-4.77%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0983	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.00132	-2.68%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2730	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001318	-2.65%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2347	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.00153	-2.75%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0140	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001628	-2.85%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0670	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001647	-2.89%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2624	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001694	-3.02%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1484	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001745	-3.23%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3067	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001998	-3.74%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3826	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001961	-3.59%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3279	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002206	-4.26%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.3000	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002206	-4.73%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2469	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001443	-2.62%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1696	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001328	-2.37%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3307	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001508	-2.75%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2461	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001171	-2.26%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6072	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001197	-2.17%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5157	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001319	-2.20%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5690	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001388	-2.52%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5070	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001023	-1.75%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3419	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001029	-1.61%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2479	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001137	-1.81%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2763	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001041	-0.47%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0774	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001189	-1.35%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0095	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001301	-1.66%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0155	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.00114	-0.32%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2270	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001109	+1.43%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0750	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001044	+4.11%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0459	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001166	+2.36%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0372	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001392	-0.03%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2546	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001463	+0.07%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1968	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001538	+0.08%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1632	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001831	-1.30%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5017	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001576	+1.32%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3953	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001815	+0.00%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6412	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001831	+0.70%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5777	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002208	-0.79%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5326	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002258	-0.69%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5124	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002468	-0.91%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5327	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002503	-0.93%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3470	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.0023	-0.49%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4238	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002563	-0.86%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3273	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002683	-1.09%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3182	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003066	-1.35%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2614	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003229	-1.30%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2893	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003604	-1.62%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3038	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003749	-1.70%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3395	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004396	-2.51%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5866	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003869	-1.98%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3330	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003687	-1.92%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2447	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003881	-2.34%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1747	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003486	-1.86%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0155	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003502	-1.81%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0492	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003287	-1.48%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1501	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004166	-3.19%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0928	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002916	-0.16%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2823	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002774	+0.80%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2781	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003355	-1.33%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1580	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.00276	+1.87%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2444	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.00265	+4.49%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3000	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.00285	+3.28%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1590	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003431	-0.32%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2240	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003833	-1.06%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2979	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003855	-1.45%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3892	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004152	-2.49%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3979	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004497	-3.08%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8273	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004906	-3.41%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0727	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005362	-3.70%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0462	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005137	-3.58%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6940	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005828	-4.33%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7478	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004326	-2.79%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2757	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004907	-3.59%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2862	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004065	-2.11%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1774	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004302	-2.44%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2043	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004014	-1.11%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3551	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003768	-0.18%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.3998	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003873	-0.34%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.4947	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004223	-1.28%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0646	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005039	-2.45%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0062	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005275	-2.58%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2336	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005462	-2.63%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1952	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005484	-2.57%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2540	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005952	-2.48%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4108	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005842	-2.54%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3845	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006142	-2.45%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3143	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005785	-2.15%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0530	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004917	-1.97%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1565	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005926	-2.11%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0227	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006227	-2.14%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0869	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.008041	-3.51%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2891	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006435	-2.45%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0442	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004289	-1.53%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3890	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004216	-1.53%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3150	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.