ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s5

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

78.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4553

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0754

actual -0.3442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001434	-6.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001444	-6.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001208	-4.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001208	-4.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001103	-3.93%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001171	-4.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001209	-5.32%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001191	-5.30%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001042	-3.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001096	-4.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001082	-3.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001289	-5.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001275	-6.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001164	-5.38%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.00127	-6.25%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001352	-6.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001468	-6.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001529	-6.27%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001542	-5.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001582	-6.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001631	-7.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001744	-7.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001717	-8.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.00165	-8.20%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001568	-7.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001752	-8.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001822	-8.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001852	-8.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002057	-8.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001791	-7.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002008	-6.99%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.2230	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.00165	-5.41%	0.001549	-11.18%	0.0079	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001433	-4.50%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1687	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001682	-5.88%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.2996	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001726	-5.72%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4327	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001542	-3.91%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3373	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001623	-4.08%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3554	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001613	-3.78%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3764	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001729	-4.07%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5302	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001821	-4.32%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5850	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001753	-4.08%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5305	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.00187	-4.38%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4384	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001945	-4.68%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4861	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002074	-5.13%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6060	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002119	-5.37%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5247	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002182	-5.45%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5090	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002399	-5.77%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5515	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002344	-5.64%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5001	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002815	-6.92%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6992	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002903	-6.63%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6175	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.00219	-5.85%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3825	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002247	-5.66%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3443	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002485	-5.67%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3890	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002733	-7.25%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5448	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002407	-5.88%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4596	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001991	-5.23%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1860	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002214	-4.51%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1958	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002055	-5.11%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1225	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.00183	-5.50%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0883	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.00215	-5.28%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2041	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002219	-5.98%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1881	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002454	-7.06%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5276	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002418	-6.35%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5347	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002701	-11.50%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6460	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002056	-10.16%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.3936	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001754	-10.03%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3701	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.00178	-10.38%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3262	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.00168	-10.29%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3047	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001745	-10.77%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3206	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001845	-11.60%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.2962	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001729	-10.87%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2712	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001931	-12.66%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3206	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001787	-12.03%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1800	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001567	-10.50%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0133	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001532	-10.78%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0588	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001417	-10.83%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1597	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001428	-10.79%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2559	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001843	-13.02%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0509	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001741	-12.88%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.2217	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.001981	-16.82%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0923	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001218	-10.17%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3684	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001217	-10.10%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3913	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.00141	-10.38%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2776	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001492	-10.96%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3521	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.00151	-11.00%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2474	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001544	-11.60%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0120	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001584	-12.15%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0482	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001762	-15.11%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1037	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001741	-14.42%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1668	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001904	-17.37%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1491	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001882	-18.69%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0436	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001357	-8.47%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3936	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001272	-6.46%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4243	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001416	-8.73%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6142	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001147	-4.24%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6015	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001176	-3.84%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5057	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001288	-4.52%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4403	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001346	-5.47%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3555	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001015	-2.53%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6731	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001023	-2.19%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7531	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001138	-1.76%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5695	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001031	-1.41%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7378	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001192	-1.09%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5373	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001303	-1.54%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.2929	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001137	-0.57%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.3971	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00109	-0.25%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3419	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001002	-0.11%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4178	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001148	+0.79%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.5955	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.0014	+0.55%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3455	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001465	+0.20%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4778	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001534	-0.20%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1302	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.00184	-0.79%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3261	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001555	+0.01%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0111	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001803	-0.65%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1333	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001809	-0.52%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1959	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002212	-0.63%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.3052	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002254	-0.87%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.3058	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002457	-1.37%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2385	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002485	-1.66%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2983	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002282	-1.23%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0727	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002532	-2.05%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1417	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.00263	-3.05%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6131	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.002955	-4.94%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8075	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003093	-5.44%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7408	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003411	-6.88%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0609	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003525	-7.57%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0771	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004012	-11.03%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1226	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003614	-8.43%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9205	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003463	-7.89%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1637	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003604	-9.32%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2054	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003292	-7.31%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0312	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003304	-7.34%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1067	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003123	-6.40%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9560	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003802	-11.65%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0597	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002814	-3.67%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9182	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002675	-2.80%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9049	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003179	-6.50%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1506	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002614	-3.49%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8310	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002497	-1.52%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5819	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002678	-2.98%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6035	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003227	-6.24%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7491	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.00359	-7.34%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.6754	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003589	-8.25%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.8905	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003804	-10.65%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0195	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004074	-12.21%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.2944	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004412	-13.14%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1213	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004771	-14.31%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.1769	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004576	-14.11%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0315	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005087	-16.50%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.1874	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.003905	-12.24%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8496	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004391	-13.73%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9569	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003707	-10.74%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1061	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.003914	-11.25%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0494	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003682	-9.29%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0582	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003464	-8.25%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2445	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003568	-8.18%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2659	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003901	-8.80%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3443	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004623	-10.49%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0191	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004838	-10.65%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.0871	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005021	-10.50%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0696	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005073	-9.87%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1714	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005564	-8.84%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2150	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005393	-10.03%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2589	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005694	-9.57%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0440	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005445	-7.90%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3375	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004662	-7.06%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2402	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005565	-8.08%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2466	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005811	-8.68%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5267	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007199	-13.62%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7697	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006095	-7.60%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5038	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004078	-6.37%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0678	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003961	-7.47%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1984	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.