UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s4

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 189

Track record at +7d

assessed

56

of 63 predictions shown

direction hit

67.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4367

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0252

actual +0.0621

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.268045	-3.16%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.268834	-3.15%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.242659	-2.49%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.215547	-1.87%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.225919	-2.23%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.271679	-3.69%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.26959	-3.70%	–	pending	–	–	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.265382	-3.28%	0.276795	+0.88%	0.0100	✓	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.282684	-4.94%	0.277585	-6.65%	0.0136	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.199247	+0.40%	0.24885	+25.40%	0.2198	✓	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.232546	-1.60%	0.21966	-7.05%	0.0155	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.210184	+0.82%	0.23107	+10.84%	0.1327	✓	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.209196	+1.66%	0.28208	+37.08%	0.3249	✓	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.203785	+2.92%	0.279945	+41.38%	0.3068	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.232957	+1.64%	0.27437	+19.71%	0.2042	✓	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.245878	+0.92%	0.297375	+22.06%	0.2470	✓	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.265124	-0.48%	0.198445	-25.51%	0.1966	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.282911	-1.70%	0.23632	-17.89%	0.1161	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.287009	-1.14%	0.20848	-28.19%	0.2773	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.274984	+0.58%	0.20578	-24.74%	0.2442	✗	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.29707	-0.94%	0.19801	-33.97%	0.3328	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.384098	-5.37%	0.22919	-43.54%	0.5095	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.374888	-4.79%	0.24363	-38.12%	0.4770	✓	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.296051	+1.67%	0.266405	-8.51%	0.1620	✗	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.316772	+0.54%	0.28781	-8.65%	0.1451	✗	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.358688	-1.59%	0.290305	-20.35%	0.2193	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.33716	+0.39%	0.27341	-18.59%	0.2195	✗	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.34155	+0.47%	0.29989	-11.79%	0.1412	✗	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.387822	-1.89%	0.40591	+2.69%	0.0652	✗	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.455422	-5.70%	0.39374	-18.47%	0.0901	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.509573	-8.53%	0.291185	-47.73%	0.4940	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.450347	-2.55%	0.31507	-31.82%	0.4209	✓	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.471808	-2.84%	0.36447	-24.95%	0.3189	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.542889	-7.16%	0.33586	-42.56%	0.5412	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.467886	-1.13%	0.33996	-28.16%	0.4458	✓	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.38849	+3.94%	0.39528	+5.75%	0.1151	✗	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.339343	+6.39%	0.482965	+51.42%	0.1859	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.392633	+5.88%	0.55709	+50.22%	0.2427	✓	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.400838	+5.76%	0.46212	+21.93%	0.0830	✓	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.378578	+6.95%	0.485615	+37.19%	0.1927	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.405858	+6.22%	0.58476	+53.04%	0.3142	✓	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.417565	+5.32%	0.47322	+19.36%	0.1278	✓	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.437353	+4.43%	0.37378	-10.75%	0.1294	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.500355	-0.32%	0.318955	-36.46%	0.4131	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.529506	-5.09%	0.37084	-33.53%	0.3445	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.61554	-9.38%	0.379015	-44.20%	0.4399	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.71829	-9.11%	0.353985	-55.21%	0.6749	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.547667	-13.21%	0.382085	-39.45%	0.3286	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.697006	-9.44%	0.396465	-48.49%	0.5043	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.761605	-9.13%	0.41882	-50.03%	0.6105	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.795253	-9.04%	0.50196	-42.59%	0.4736	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.802169	-12.27%	0.55791	-38.98%	0.3698	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.483047	-7.92%	0.679235	+29.47%	0.3070	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.305082	-5.94%	0.790295	+143.66%	0.9316	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.221557	-8.17%	0.63101	+161.55%	1.0233	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.252991	-4.42%	0.76968	+190.79%	1.1004	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.338721	-9.00%	0.838135	+125.17%	0.9280	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.147172	-6.58%	0.87428	+454.96%	1.7963	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.184542	-7.10%	0.91438	+360.30%	1.6057	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.131109	-6.95%	0.52462	+272.33%	1.3875	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.087215	+2.49%	0.32435	+281.14%	1.2983	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.110123	-0.52%	0.24126	+117.94%	0.7905	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.103116	-2.17%	0.26469	+151.13%	0.8479	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.