TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s4
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
90.5%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.3684
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0510
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001605 | -5.59% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001599 | -5.30% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001608 | -4.12% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001556 | -2.59% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001219 | +0.48% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001322 | +0.85% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001348 | +0.97% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001459 | +0.81% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1279 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001521 | +1.07% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.0744 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.00156 | -0.17% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0741 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001757 | +0.87% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0967 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002213 | -0.95% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5810 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002269 | -0.89% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5300 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002668 | -1.97% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6798 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002219 | -1.27% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4326 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002493 | -3.14% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4840 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.001983 | -12.35% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.2089 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002071 | -14.22% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.1250 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.002816 | -8.75% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.1982 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.002846 | -9.82% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.1958 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003727 | -6.24% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.2907 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003403 | -9.54% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.3772 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003467 | -9.86% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.2944 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003549 | -10.03% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.4728 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004777 | -4.85% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7097 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005344 | -3.87% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5730 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006042 | -3.34% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6533 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006909 | -3.54% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5577 | ✓ | 1.00 |