TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s4
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +1d
assessed
27
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
59.3%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1036
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0104
actual -0.0500
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001683 | -1.02% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.00167 | -1.06% | 0.0017 | +0.71% | 0.0215 | ✗ | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001663 | -0.81% | 0.001688 | +0.66% | 0.0367 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001588 | -0.53% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0782 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001214 | +0.07% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2709 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001313 | +0.15% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0664 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001337 | +0.13% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0218 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001448 | +0.09% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0738 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001507 | +0.12% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0473 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.00156 | -0.18% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0173 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001743 | +0.08% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1257 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002229 | -0.21% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2232 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002284 | -0.22% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0315 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002708 | -0.50% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1725 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002237 | -0.43% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1857 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002551 | -0.89% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1077 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.00219 | -3.20% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1885 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002326 | -3.65% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0254 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003016 | -2.28% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2138 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003078 | -2.48% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0179 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003913 | -1.56% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2178 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003673 | -2.36% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0830 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003755 | -2.36% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0135 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003853 | -2.31% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0008 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004971 | -0.99% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2336 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005517 | -0.76% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0822 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006208 | -0.69% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1110 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007091 | -1.01% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1299 | ✓ | 1.00 |